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AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

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Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#501

Post by argonaut »

Houshalter wrote: post #439
onion2k wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a lot of progress being made in AI right now. Hard problems that were expected to take decades, are being beaten regularly. Who is to say how much AI could advance in the next 20-30 years? "We've beaten some hard problems more quickly than expected therefore we'll likely beat other hard problems more quickly than expected" is logical induction. It's equivalent to "I just flipped a coin and got heads. I'll pr…

>I just flipped a coin and got heads. I'll probably get heads again on the next flip Which is corrrect, if you don't know the true probability of flipping heads. You might find, for example, that it's a trick coin with two heads and no tails. You absolutely can predict future progress from past progress. E.g. Moore's law held true for decades after the observation was made. If you see a technology advancing rapidly,…

No, not if you have a strong prior belief that coins in general are fair.

By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (every) AGI prediction.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#504

Post by argonaut »

escoz wrote: post #462
YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go is literally infinitely more easy to solve than general intelligence. "Literally" in the sense that Go has a finite number of board states, while a general intelligence must be able to deal with an infinite amount of novel situations, presumably by generalising from previously experienced ones. Infinity is a real problem. When you try to learn from examples, you first need to see "enough" examples of whatever you'…

Yes, go have a finite number of board states, just 2.08168199382×10^170, just a bit over the 10^80 atoms in the universe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_and_mathematics

Not all of those board states are "novel." The true "dimensionality" of "novel patterns" in Go is much smaller.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#505

Post by argonaut »

Houshalter wrote: post #443
argonaut wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "moving goalposts" argument is one that really needs to die. It's a classic empty statement. Just because other people made in the past does not mean it's wrong. It proves nothing. People also predicted AGI many times over-optimistically; probably just as often as people have moved goalposts.

I don't know what you are trying to say. I'm making an observation that whenever AI beats a milestone, there are a bunch of pessimists that come out and say "but obviously X was beatable by stupid algorithms. I will beleive AI is making progress when it beats Y!" Those arguments absolutely are wrong. For one thing it's classic hindsight bias. When you make a wrong prediction, you should update your model, not come up…

I said exactly what I said. Calling out "moving the goalposts" does not refute the assertion that this does not get us nontrivially closer to AGI.

Whenever AI beats a milestone, there are a bunch of over-optimists that come out and make predictions about AGI. They have been wrong over and over again over the course of half a century. It's classic hindsight bias.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#507

Post by NhanH »

vessenes wrote: post #452
awwducks wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, terrific commentary by Myungwan Kim 9p on the AGA channel. For the folks who aren't as familiar with the game, how did you find the commentary (for any channel)? What would you be interested in hearing for events like these?

I really enjoyed Myungwan's down-and-dirty commentary, and watching him get lost in some variations, and it was just incredibly exciting to see him get won over to AlphaGo during the game. From about move 50, I was just viscerally excited to see where things went, and the game did not disappoint in any way. I've read a few different reviews and watched Michael Redmond's live commentary as well, who obviously has a sl…

Building the wall down to attack the bottom right corner isn't something outrageous, not to those at the level of Sedol. AlphaGo definitely played amazing, as the game was very technical in term of fighting. But the "flow" (chase out weak group then invade a corner) is a fairly common situation. I don't think it's a matter of AlphaGo seeing strategy further than Sedol. It might have had much deeper calculation and reading than Sedol - as showed in deflecting the attachment in lower right - but that's a bit of a different story.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#508

Post by davorb »

mjn wrote: post #63
taneq wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a proof-of-concept. What they've proved is that the same kind of intelligence required to play Go can be implemented with computer hardware. Before now, software couldn't beat a ranked human player at Go no matter how much computing power we threw at it . Now we can. Give it ten years and, between algorithmic optimizations and advances in processing, you'll have an unbeatable Go app on your phone.

> What they've proved is that the same kind of intelligence required to play Go can be implemented with computer hardware. Before now, software couldn't beat a ranked human player at Go no matter how much computing power we threw at it . I don't think that's quite true as a description of what we knew about computer Go previously, though it depends on what precisely you mean. Recent systems (meaning the past 10 years…

> Play strength scales roughly with the log of computing power

To be fair, a lot of the progress in recent years has been due to taking a different approach to solving the problem, and not just due to pure computing power. Due to the way go works, you can't do what we do with chess and try all combinations, no matter how powerful of a computer you have. Using deep learning, we have recently helped computers develop what you might call intuition -- they're now much better at figuring out when they should stop going deeper into the tree (of all possible combinations).

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#510

Post by maaku »

sethbannon wrote: post #7

I was at the 2003 match of Garry Kasparov vs Deep Junior -- the strongest chess player of all time vs what was at that point the strongest chess playing computer in history. Kasparov drew that match, but it was clear it was the last stand of homo sapiens in the man vs machine chess battle. Back then, people took solace in the game of Go. Many boldly and confidently predicted we wouldn't see a computer beat the Go wor…

> Many boldly and confidently predicted we wouldn't see a computer beat the Go world champion in our lifetimes.

Sadly as I write this my uncle and personal hero who spent 17 years of his life working towards a Ph.D. on abstraction hierarchies for use in Go artificial intelligence, has been moved into hospice care. I'm just glad that in the few days that are left he has a chance to see this happen, even if it is not the good old-fashioned approach he took.

[1] He recently started rewriting the continuation of this research in golang, available on Github: https://github.com/Ken1JF/ah

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