Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The fact that Brazil may have an exceptionally good year, only means that it is likely to have a less-exceptional year after that, due to regression to the mean. Isn't that a Monte Carlo fallacy? One outcome in a sequence of tests does not mean that others are more likely in the future. If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced c…
> If you flip a coin and get 10 heads in a row, your likelihood of getting a tails on the next flip (assuming a perfectly-balanced coin) is still 50%. If you flip a FAIR coin, your odds are still 50%. If I flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, I'm betting heads for that 11th flip.
Yeah, sure, but also the bookie will give you crappy odds on that bet! :)