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Software Is Eating the Job Market

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Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#51

Post by stcredzero »

jerf wrote: post #43
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

This is in the class of problems that naturally corrects itself over time. When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already: Mentoring and something that looks like apprenticeship. Compared to the prospect of there being no job at all because softw…

Shouldn't an economist be able to figure out when such a phenomenon is happening? It seems like this should be quantifiable. It seems like a 21st century government should be looking for these situations to be arising with some regularity now, and that a "template" program for helping mentoring/apprenticeship practices to come about faster might make sense.

(Modulo one's faith in the (in)competence of government interventions and its degree. obLibertarian objection noted -- so please expand and not just repeat if you are commenting in that direction.)

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#52

Post by dragonwriter »

ctdonath wrote: post #46
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

> Raise my taxes enough (only to "redistribute" to those opting to not work) and I'll switch to untaxable yet satisfying "off the grid" living.

That's actually not a harm, and its exactly why you aren't tearing out the incentive for productive activity; when you devote more of your time to that because you've hit a high-enough marginal tax rate that the marginal benefit post-tax from additional gain through taxable activity is not sufficient to meet your marginal opportunity cost from that activity, simple supply and demand increases the incentive for others for whom that balance works out differently -- perhaps because they are lower on the progressive tax scale so that the marginal realized net monetary return is greater, or perhaps because they are at a similar place to where you are but weigh the costs differently -- to engage in the activity you are forgoing. In fact, a net upward (on the wealth/income) scale shift in tax burden increases the incentive for productive activity at the lower end of the scale.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#53

Post by s73v3r »

jklinger410 wrote: post #19

I think we need this to happen. We need McDonald's to move to an entirely robotic store. We need every store to mechanize every thing they possibly can. That way we can increase our efficiency as a country by multitudes and get on with the nasty part of Universal Base Income. It has to happen. And for America, as a competitive nation, the sooner the better.

Seriously? You honestly think that the political landscape is anywhere closer to accepting that kind of socialism? I'm gonna tell you right now that it's not. And even if that automation happens, it's not going to change anything regarding UBI.

Here's the problem: If the automation happens before UBI gets into place, you are condemning those people to incredibly poor lives, and possibly homelessness and starvation.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#54

Post by random28345 »

jerf wrote: post #43
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

This is in the class of problems that naturally corrects itself over time. When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already: Mentoring and something that looks like apprenticeship. Compared to the prospect of there being no job at all because softw…

> When your firm can't hire anyone with experience, and there's no entry-level jobs, it will discover the same solution to that problem that has been discovered any number of times in any number of other situations already

Yes, hire a temporary worker with an H-1B visa or outsource it outright.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#55

Post by ctdonath »

int3 wrote: post #29
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

Interesting points. > The problem is that we are eating entry-level jobs, and in turn, creating an artificial scarce supply of "experienced" workers. On the other hand, it is easier than ever to get cheap, basic education in a variety of things, with the Internet and MOOCs making information widely available. So entry-level jobs may be less necessary these days. On the other hand, it means the people who can afford t…

That's assuming there's any incentive to pursue that free education. A large segment of the population has no interest in working save for the fact that if they don't they'll starve; these are not self-motivated people who seek out academic pursuits in their spare time.

Entry-level jobs are absolutely necessary, first for learning to get to work on time daily, then for the job-specific education needed to work up to something actually productive and which cannot be simply taught by an independent "expert".

Those advocating "basic income" need to go look up the phrase "going Galt" (upshot: given enough unproductive leeching off the productive, the latter are apt to say "screw this" and disappear from society).

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#56

Post by nostrademons »

ctdonath wrote: post #46
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

I think the point (in the context of this discussion) is that we don't need everyone to be maximally productive - machines and automation can do so much that we could all enjoy a very nice standard of living if everyone worked ~2 hours/day.

I'm a little skeptical of basic income as well, just like I'd be skeptical of any untested widespread social policy, but the orthodox reasons why it doesn't work are based on a model of reality that's ~3 generations and 70+ years old. I suspect that if it doesn't work, it'll be because of some problem we haven't thought of yet, not the old "tax on the productive". The top candidate, IMHO, is that we're outcompeted by some other society that doesn't have basic income.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#57

Post by random28345 »

ctdonath wrote: post #46
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

> Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns.

Sounds good to me. More actors, more variety. Maybe we wouldn't see every single sci-fi/action movie star Tom Cruise.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#58

Post by kfk »

So, when we came up with agriculture some millenia ago, all those jobless people, those hunters/explorers/etc., did not stay jobless, did they? What about when we came up with machines in the 19th century? All those people in agriculture would still be jobless, but they are not, are they?

Point is, every technological innovation will be absorbed in the long term. It's been historically this way for millennia, at least. People are very good at reinventing themselves as long as they have an incentive (food, money) to do so.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#59

Post by vezzy-fnord »

ctdonath wrote: post #46
mason240 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Universal Basic Income is the best post-labor system I've read of. Everything is still based on the same capitalism we have now, and the ~20% of people who work will still be able to make income (meaning there will still be incentive for enterprise).

Except you'll have increasing encroachment on motivation of the productive. When Ronald Reagan was a top-billed Hollywood actor, he faced a ~90% tax bracket. Rather than work hard only to see most of his earnings confiscated, he'd make just a few movies and then enjoy those profits instead of spending time on diminishing returns. Same for plenty of us motivated ones: if 80% are living off the 20%, that will require t…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but your example seems to imply the existence of a marginal propensity to consume. I don't think this is commonly accepted in light of work by Friedman and others on the permanent income hypothesis, which puts to question relatively simplistic supply-side and "Going Galt" scenarios.

Re: Software Is Eating the Job Market

#60

Post by niuzeta »

int3 wrote: post #29
niuzeta wrote: post #11

The non-fundamental shift about software is not that it's creating quality jobs at the cost of medium-quality jobs. It's also not that we are creating robots that will replace low-quality human workers. Because we still believe that as low-quality jobs go, higher-quality jobs will somehow appear. (you may not agree with this, even I am personally sceptical, but that's not the point I'm about to argue) But to get to t…

Interesting points. > The problem is that we are eating entry-level jobs, and in turn, creating an artificial scarce supply of "experienced" workers. On the other hand, it is easier than ever to get cheap, basic education in a variety of things, with the Internet and MOOCs making information widely available. So entry-level jobs may be less necessary these days. On the other hand, it means the people who can afford t…

One of the most popular questions I hear being asked about MOOC is, "Will employers recognize this as a standard university education". I think, in a way, it's telling that question gets asked so frequently, as if looking for an assurance that MOOC will not be a waste of time, or just as good as traditional education.

When employers use education as a minimum bar, it may often be the case that the actual bar is the history as qualification, rather than the actual content of the information. It's similar to how a degree in theory would prove the employer that the person has some discipline to finish a degree.

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