Ordos, China: The World’s Largest Ghost City (2014) • Hacker News Board

Re: Ordos, China: The World’s Largest Ghost City (2014)

#51

Post by coliveira » Mon, May 25, 2015, 1:55 PM UTC

gbog wrote: post #43

coliveira wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excellent comment. China overdid their stimulus package in 2008 because of the need to keep the jobs coming. If would have been much better for them if they had used 2008 to slow the growth rhythm to something sustainable (4 to 5%). I think they are now headed to a very difficult transition, probably Japanese-style, because of so much debt.

I don't know for Chinese gov but I know for sure that Chinese families are not used to buy expensive things with money they don't have, so no, I don't agree: China as a whole has a lot of real money in the pockets.

This doesn't make any difference. The Japanese are even more frugal than the Chinese, that is why they have been able to support a deflationary economy for more than 20 years.

Re: Ordos, China: The World’s Largest Ghost City (2014)

#52

Post by jimrandomh » Mon, May 25, 2015, 3:03 PM UTC

nate_meurer wrote: post #17

jimrandomh wrote: post #15

It may seem weird to have almost-empty cities, but from a different perspective, a city like that is an amazing resource. If China ever has disaster or other crisis that creates lots of refugees (think Hurricane Katrina), they have a functioning city with lots of space ready for people to go to. Which is pretty awesome, when you think about it.

But these don't really make very good "backup" cities. The housing isn't owned by the government. It's owned by investors, often individuals, and it serves as a sink for money that has nowhere else to go. Real estate and construction investment of this kind is one of the big drivers of the Chinese economy. If the government confiscates property on the scale you're talking about -- even if it's in response to a disast…

I think you're giving them too little credit. The government wouldn't have to confiscate property in that scenario, they could just buy it. They're not exactly short on money.

Re: Ordos, China: The World’s Largest Ghost City (2014)

#53

Post by [deleted] » Mon, May 25, 2015, 11:58 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #22

pavlov wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That does seem insanely expensive. Maybe the price was quoted in $/m^2 and the unit was mistakenly switched to square feet at some point? An alternative explanation is that the owners of these houses don't really want to sell them at all for some reason. Maybe keeping the money tied in unsold real estate is somehow preferable to having cash or other assets, due to e.g. government housing subsidies or something?

Nobody wants to take a loss on real estate in China, so they'll just wait until the market is better or they get compensated by the government when they eventually "redevelop" the land (those apartments only have an effective 10-20 year lifespan given quality of current construction methods). They don't take out big loans to buy these places, so there is no liquidity pressure. This is good and bad, no housing market…

[deleted]

Re: Ordos, China: The World’s Largest Ghost City (2014)

#54

Post by [deleted] » Tue, May 26, 2015, 12:21 AM UTC

ics wrote: post #29

guard-of-terra wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"those apartments only have an effective 10-20 year lifespan" Economical or political crisis hits, and they'll have to live in those apartments for 50+ years. We've been there already. How do you build an apartment block these days anyway so it just lasts 20 years? With modern materials it's a bit unexpected. It's a royally crappy idea anyway. Imagine selling one of those apartments to a person aged 40, who then prom…

"Modern materials" doesn't necessarily mean the most durable or well-suited to the task. It typically means cheap to produce (therefore readily available) and visually... acceptable.

[deleted]