51–60 of 70 posts
Livestream link: http://livestream.com/spacex/events/3959775 Broadcast starts at 1615 est.
Is livestream really laggy? I can't get more than 20 seconds of video to play after initial load.
"Hold. Hold. Hold. Weather is no go" @ 4:31pm EST
> Launch postponed due to lightning from an approaching anvil cloud ( https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/587715056432889856 ) Anyone know how they detect lightnings? Is it just cameras, or do they have planes flying around?
"Hold. Hold. Hold. Weather is no go" @ 4:31pm EST
> Launch postponed due to lightning from an approaching anvil cloud ( https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/587715056432889856 ) Anyone know how they detect lightnings? Is it just cameras, or do they have planes flying around?
That site works by a using a network of cheap EMP detectors. It uses the timing differences from each sensor to trilaterate the position of the lightning strike.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A forecast doesn't stop a popup thunderstorm from entering the no-go zone.
Of course not. But it would help SpaceX plan and prepare much more in advance than 3 minutes. There is certainly a cost associated with getting everything set up, and then postponing the launch. Could they have planned for this earlier and not got everything ready?
There is a cost to postponing the launch, but compared to having their rocket blown up by lightning on launch, it's nothing.
As far as I know, the budget for these launches already includes x number of retries - since scrubbing launches and retrying in another window is actually standard procedure - so they are not "loosing" as much money as you think. It's only if they exceed the # of retry attempts that they've budgeted for that a solution like yours becomes viable, and even then, you're not fighting against "the cost of getting things set up".
You're fighting against the cost of having their rocket blown up on launch because of bad or unforseen weather events. That's why they scrub - not because the weather is too bad to fly - it's because there could be an unforseen event happening because an anvil cloud (which has lightning in it) - merges with another large storm formation at 10 nm - basically, it's insurance against the rocket blowing up.
If you can insure your weather detection solution in the high hundreds of millions for a positive launch, then there would be a market for it.
And to be successful, your product will need to cut that 3 min downwards, not upwards.
So that mission control can have a better confidence of scrubbing a launch, say within 10-s of launch time vs 3 min.
You get what I mean? Better weather detection allows mission control to delay longer until the best guess estimate of when to hit the STOP button, not so that they can plan ahead to put a launch at xyz date/time because a weather prediction system says so.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of course not. But it would help SpaceX plan and prepare much more in advance than 3 minutes. There is certainly a cost associated with getting everything set up, and then postponing the launch. Could they have planned for this earlier and not got everything ready?
> Could they have planned for this earlier and not got everything ready? Probably not. They were a go up until just three minutes before launch. I doubt any extant or near-future forecasting system is able to tell you that a specific storm cell will be in a specific spot at an exact minute all that far in advance.
OTOH, why not just ping @elonmusk on twitter?
"Hold. Hold. Hold. Weather is no go" @ 4:31pm EST
If only there were someone working on high-accuracy weather forecast systems for convective systems using existing cheap networked sensors ;). I would love to know how much money I could save SpaceX by providing this forecast more accurately with much more lead time. What is the cost to scrub a launch due to the weather at the last minute?
Right now, there is a major thunderstorm system north of the launch area, and a smaller one south of it. They were trying to launch through the gap.
[1] http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/cape-canaveral-fl/32920/wea... [2] http://commons.erau.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?filename=4&artic...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Could they have planned for this earlier and not got everything ready? Probably not. They were a go up until just three minutes before launch. I doubt any extant or near-future forecasting system is able to tell you that a specific storm cell will be in a specific spot at an exact minute all that far in advance.
> I doubt any extant or near-future forecasting system is able to tell you that a specific storm cell will be in a specific spot at an exact minute all that far in advance. Well, this is exactly my plan, and I'm going to do it ASAP. Prototype should be done by summer. There are millions of little weather stations all over Florida that nobody is using (smartphones). By connecting those stations together and pulling th…
"Hold. Hold. Hold. Weather is no go" @ 4:31pm EST
If only there were someone working on high-accuracy weather forecast systems for convective systems using existing cheap networked sensors ;). I would love to know how much money I could save SpaceX by providing this forecast more accurately with much more lead time. What is the cost to scrub a launch due to the weather at the last minute?
It's a great idea - I think there are a bunch of similar applications that could leverage phones like this.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Launch postponed due to lightning from an approaching anvil cloud ( https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/587715056432889856 ) Anyone know how they detect lightnings? Is it just cameras, or do they have planes flying around?
Lightning can be detected from thousands of miles away. See http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0... . Turn on "detectors" on the right to see the distances involved. That site works by a using a network of cheap EMP detectors. It uses the timing differences from each sensor to trilaterate the position of the lightning strike.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If only there were someone working on high-accuracy weather forecast systems for convective systems using existing cheap networked sensors ;). I would love to know how much money I could save SpaceX by providing this forecast more accurately with much more lead time. What is the cost to scrub a launch due to the weather at the last minute?
How are you going to sense thunderstorms with a smartphone? Temperature / Barometric pressure changes? User input? Weather Underground has been doing the latter for a couple of years, although it doesn't seem to be altering their "current conditions" reporting yet: http://www.wunderground.com/about/pr/news.asp?date=20131121 It's a great idea - I think there are a bunch of similar applications that could leverage phon…
Early initial targets are large convective systems (like these) that are difficult to predict. Our dense barometer network should resolve them far better than other existing networks.
We also do Current Conditions like WU, but that idea needs a lot of work before anyone makes a valuable product on it alone. Typically those readings are used to validate and tweak models, not make forecasts.
Other sensors that will prove useful: cell signal strength, thermometer, humidity, UV sensor, ambient light sensor, etc.
And yes, there are lots of other uses! Like earthquake mapping and alerting, I wrote a blog post mentioning some ideas and the importance for the code to be open source: http://www.jacobsheehy.com/2014/02/open-source-software-is-i...