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The joyless world of data-driven startups

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Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#51
post #27
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The failure is the failure to generate novelty or adequately explore alternatives. Perhaps you value novelty more than the average person. What might not be "adequate" for you might very well be adequate for a huge portion of people. Throughout this comment you mention several potential goals of content producers (being memorable, advancing the art, changing someone's life, etc.), but you make no argument for why t…

> Perhaps you value novelty... > What might not be "adequate" for you... It isn't about what he values versus what you value. What the author complains about are well known problems with recommendation engines. Take the naive reco algo - "You just bought a 50 inch Philips TV. You might also like - 50 inch Sony TV, 50 inch LG TV, 50 inch Samsung TV, 50 inch ..." - See the problem ? I already bought my fucking TV, you…

And yet you can find plenty of articles about how procedurally generated game environments create longevity.

Imagine a machine that could make procedurally generated movies, would that interest you?

Stories have already been distilled to the Seven Basic Plots [1]

Novelty needs repetion in order to be novel.

[1] http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheSevenBasicPlot...

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#52
post #8
post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

The failure is the failure to generate novelty or adequately explore alternatives. Enough people might reliable go see 25 sequels, but none of those films will be memorable. None will advance the art of film-making. None will change anyone's life or mentality or affect the culture in any meaningful way. Being data driven means chasing the biggest, loudest signal in your data set. It means pandering to that signal, be…

Feh. What you're saying is only true if 100% of decisions are data driven. Just because Hollywood has chosen to make 25 sequels doesn't mean that Sundance no longer exists. It, and countless events and organizations like it, are celebrated inside and outside of Hollywood.

The implications of the hypothetical extension of this trend are clear to a lot of people. As long as some percent of people are pushing the boundary, culture will be fine. Let everyone else enjoy their sequels and reality shows.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#54
post #8
post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

The failure is the failure to generate novelty or adequately explore alternatives. Enough people might reliable go see 25 sequels, but none of those films will be memorable. None will advance the art of film-making. None will change anyone's life or mentality or affect the culture in any meaningful way. Being data driven means chasing the biggest, loudest signal in your data set. It means pandering to that signal, be…

Data is useless for art because art is expected to explore the boundaries of what's acceptable and what's conventional. There is no data for things that haven't even been done yet.

Historical data on sales of paintings would've never told Picasso to pursue Cubism, or for Salinger to write 'Catcher in the Rye'.

It was data that causes so many publishing houses to reject future bestsellers. Sales figures for past children's books told publishers that "Harry Potter" would never work.

We all know how that played out.

As for business, existing data would have never told Jobs to build an iPhone - simply because there really was no data on touchscreen devices.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#55
post #53

The problem with the data-driven approach is you might be optimising towards a local maximum.

Only with naive optimization algorithms, of course. There's a whole academic field of study devoted to optimization, and avoiding local maxima is a big issue of course. Hundreds if not thousands of papers are published on it, every year.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#56
Anyone read the Crunchbase profile of the company the author is the CTO for?

"Bipsync provides a research automation platform to maximize the productivity of professional investors. Founded in Silicon Valley in 2012 by experienced investors and software developers at Stanford University, the company uses modern technologies and user-centered design to speed up data capture, automate research maintenance and identify insights that drive better decisions for investors and funds." [1]

I mean, maybe I shouldn't be looking for patterns, because, y'know, data. But it seems oddly conflicting to be pitching a product that encourages the use of data to drive decisions and then publicly condemning... the use of data to drive decisions.

Aside from that contradiction, the company just got seed funding four months ago. It's probably far too early to make decisions about the efficacy of being "data-driven." From personal experience, trying to manage people by telling them, "I'm right, let's do it my way," is terribly demotivating (and very prone to error). Conversely, trying to weigh everyone's input equally and sift out good ideas is an organizational nightmare that creates a ton of complexity. Complexity slows down execution. And who decides on the best ideas?

Creating a mental framework for hypothesis testing and building a product based on optimizing for specific metrics is, in my mind, what being data-driven actually means. There are no inconsistencies or personal biases. It's scalable. You can teach the entire team how to approach the design of a feature as a problem with a testable hypothesis. Politics go out the window as execution strategy is determined by return on investment of engineering resources. Being data-driven doesn't discourage creativity, it just allows you to reframe problems.

Buzzfeed clickbait titles are but a small (and, well, effective) subset of a vast array of largely positive things that come from being "data-driven." Attempting to demonize patterns of logical, rational decision-making because you (personally) don't like one outcome is... well, an anti-pattern. (It happens all of the time. See: The history of the scientific method. ;))

Sure, it's not sexy. But it doesn't need to be. It just needs to work.

1. https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/bipsync

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#57

I'm not afraid of computers acting like people (AI). I'm very worried about people acting like computers. Every circuit, every program is based on a principle: comparators (analogue) = NAND (digital) = if statements (software). Machines choose their answer by taking a huge amount of information, and sorting it. By design, this leads to some monstrous conclusions. For example, eugenics might be logically efficient, bu…

> She makes all her decisions based on the heart, rather than the mind

Maybe I reading the wrong thing into that. I make decisions with my heart and mind.

Heart = I care about my kids and want them to be healthy

Mind = To care for them I vaccinate them and don't use homeopathy

Maybe I'm misinterpreting this but my general experience is someone who "makes all decisions based on the heart, rather than the mind" generally makes some very poor decisions that actually don't lead to the results they want.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#58
> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years.

A bit off-topic, but it explains why we got Windows 8x and the upcoming Windows 10 - data driven metrics.

When will Microsoft learn that developers and advanced users turned off the "phone-home" metrics gathering functions in Windows XP, Vista, 7 and Office?

People want Windows 10 to be Windows 7.5. It would be nice to get some lost Windows XP functionality back and shell bugs fixed that are in since Vista.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#59
post #30
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps you value novelty... > What might not be "adequate" for you... It isn't about what he values versus what you value. What the author complains about are well known problems with recommendation engines. Take the naive reco algo - "You just bought a 50 inch Philips TV. You might also like - 50 inch Sony TV, 50 inch LG TV, 50 inch Samsung TV, 50 inch ..." - See the problem ? I already bought my fucking TV, you…

I understand the general argument, and I don't disagree in general . My intuition is that showing 50 inch TVs to someone who just bought one is not ideal [0]. My point is that the specific examples provided (Hollywood blockbusters, etc.) are not accompanied by any evidence or reasoning to convince me that these industries are not doing a good job of satisfying the market. [0] That said, I've seen lots of counterintui…

The data might just show that offering 50 inch TVs to someone who just bought one is actually a rich opportunity. Perhaps both televisions were stolen in a burglary. Or someone is finally upgrading all their televisions from CRT to flat screen -- maybe they moved from a house to a small apartment. It would not surprise me in the least if people were 10 times more likely to purchase a television having just bought one, compared to individuals randomly selected.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#60
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The failure is the failure to generate novelty or adequately explore alternatives. Enough people might reliable go see 25 sequels, but none of those films will be memorable. None will advance the art of film-making. None will change anyone's life or mentality or affect the culture in any meaningful way. Being data driven means chasing the biggest, loudest signal in your data set. It means pandering to that signal, be…

Data is useless for art because art is expected to explore the boundaries of what's acceptable and what's conventional. There is no data for things that haven't even been done yet. Historical data on sales of paintings would've never told Picasso to pursue Cubism, or for Salinger to write 'Catcher in the Rye'. It was data that causes so many publishing houses to reject future bestsellers. Sales figures for past child…

> Historical data on sales of paintings would've never told Picasso to pursue Cubism, or for Salinger to write 'Catcher in the Rye'.

In that case I wish art would be data-driven, and produce more of the pre-Picasso paintings that are fun to look at and pre-Salinger books that are fun to read.

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