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Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

fortune.com

51–60 of 79 posts

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#51
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That probably should have said 'search advertising'. YouTube is a different type of advertising. Google needs to plan for a day when search advertising comes under attack from the next big thing. Maybe traditional search fades away, etc.

The interesting thing is that neither YouTube nor Google search have much user lock-in. YouTube has content producer lock-in, which is tremendously helpful. And it may be that there's just no room for improvement massive enough to pull people away, that video delivery is close enough to its peak to not leave any room for real competition. But if content was elsewhere, YouTube revenue would vanish very quickly indeed.…

If you're locked into the google ecosystem, switching is that much harder. Searching from Chrome, Android, Gmail... Google Search would have a continuity savings.

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interesting thing is that neither YouTube nor Google search have much user lock-in. YouTube has content producer lock-in, which is tremendously helpful. And it may be that there's just no room for improvement massive enough to pull people away, that video delivery is close enough to its peak to not leave any room for real competition. But if content was elsewhere, YouTube revenue would vanish very quickly indeed.…

> Search, on the other hand, still has massive room for improvement. This is true, but it's also a really hard problem and most likely any improvements will require enormous scale to implement (because they'll be based on statistical analysis of prior search queries), which only Google and a handful of others have. So no network effects, but huge economies of scale. Plus, having used some other search engines (DuckDu…

I suspect you could go a rediculusly long way with crated searches. Basically page rank with ~10-100x the hand tuning to more or less kill off SEO.

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#53
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That probably should have said 'search advertising'. YouTube is a different type of advertising. Google needs to plan for a day when search advertising comes under attack from the next big thing. Maybe traditional search fades away, etc.

The interesting thing is that neither YouTube nor Google search have much user lock-in. YouTube has content producer lock-in, which is tremendously helpful. And it may be that there's just no room for improvement massive enough to pull people away, that video delivery is close enough to its peak to not leave any room for real competition. But if content was elsewhere, YouTube revenue would vanish very quickly indeed.…

> Search, on the other hand, still has massive room for improvement.

Broadly agree.

For what Google does in search, say, first-cut, keywords/phrases and results sorted by a measure of gross popularity, page rank, and date (but, for a second-cut, clearly now with a lot of refining tweaks), it seems to me that they are doing a terrific job.

But as far as I can tell, Bing is doing about the same.

So, if are looking for something, have a few keywords/phrases that fairly accurately characterize what want, then Google/Bing can work well. They can be just terrific. But that scenario does at best poorly on a significant fraction of ("safe for work") search.

For this fraction, there are a lot of approaches, Web sites, etc. but nothing very good.

For this fraction, I worked out some new techniques and wrote the corresponding software.

For where Google/Bing work well, and often they are just terrific, my work will usually not be as good and only occasionally better.

But for nearly all of the fraction of "at best poorly", my work should be quite good and much better than anything else. My work is different, very different, and I believe that being so different is necessary (clearly not sufficient) for success in the fraction I am attacking.

Currently I'm loading some initial data. Then ..., maybe people will like it.

Of course, with all the usual start-up advice, my work is doomed to fail because I'm a solo founder if don't count my kitty cats! And, I'm not a college dropout. I didn't even drop out of grad school and did get my Ph.D. And I'm past 30. So, right, doomed!

But being successful at what I'm attempting would be exceptional; so we have to expect that much of my project is not the usual. So be it. I have some fairly good reasons to believe that my work should be successful; no way am I doing this just "on a wing and a prayer".

What do you think? Announce a private beta test here on HN? Get feedback? Get it working well. Polish the UI/UX. Go live, get more publicity, run ads, grow?

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#54
"As Google’s core business continues to thrive, Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology"

I am one of the folks who doesn't believe that Search Advertising is "continuing to thrive", rather I think if you look at the steady erosion of CPC and the growing cost of paid distribution you will see that Google's search advertising business is dying (or at least no longer organically growing). Google can pump those tires with additional inventory, cutting off partners to keep more of the revenue, and buying more traffic, but the bottom line is that if you just ran the business as usual search advertising revenues would be flat to down over the last 8 quarters. In that context their only choice is to find another Golden Goose quickly before the momentum flips.

That said, I've been saying this for several years and they keep pumping and boosting the top line revenue. So it is entirely possible they consider this the normal evolution of their business. Maybe its just advertisers who are pickier or want a better return on their advertising dollar. I don't know, but I do know search advertising is losing profit margin faster than the market is growing.

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#55
post #13

Musk wants to colonize and live in Mars and Page is the most ambitious CEO of the universe?

Yeah, in the universe . More ambitious even than Glorblax, creator of the monoliths. Why does anyone ever continue reading an article after a headline like that? Nothing can follow except a thoughtless a puff piece.

I nearly posted my standard view of Fortune but relented. But with your comment, here goes! My view of Fortune is that they have a formula for such articles.

First glance, the article seems to be to provide information to the readers, say, as in "this is what this really successful guy does that you, the reader, might learn from and find useful in your work in business". But my view is that this first glance is nearly totally wrong.

Instead the formula for the articles is not to provide useful, or even very solid, information at all. Instead, the formula is a manipulation of the reader: The reader is made to feel good about themselves.

How? The article makes the subject's work look simple, definitely like the reader can easily see themselves doing the same. Then the reader feels like they are on the right track, that is, already doing as well as the subject of the article. So, the article passes out a lot of simplistic insights, cliches, trivialities, etc. that any reader can agree that they could have done.

Really it is best for the formula if the reader comes away learning nothing at all; that is, part of the formula is to make the reader conclude that they are already on the right track, already know as much as the subject in the article, could easily do just what the subject does, and, thus, are on the way also to being worth billions. So, a main goal is that the reader learn nothing!

So, are making the reader feel good by confirming that the simplistic thoughts that they can easily already have really are the right stuff.

Or, such an article is vicarious, escapist, fantasy, emotional experience entertainment (VEFEEE).

And that's the article. The formula is to manipulate the reader into coming back for more, thinking that, "I'm reading Fortune and, thus, learning from the best Captains of Business; oh, oh, oh, I'm learning so much; and, since these guys are worth billions, I can be, too.".

I concluded all this long ago. I am surprised to see Fortune still following the same old formula. Heck, I kept reading to the end just to see if they had any significant content beyond their old formula -- they didn't.

So, net, I gave up on Fortune for years, and now I'll give up on the Web version for more years! What a big pile of nutten, deliberately, very carefully crafted, total nutten!

"Thoughtless" you say! How kind you are!

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#56
post #6

Disney is a classic example of a company that made huge leaps and transformed itself from a single revenue stream to a very diverse one. Can you think of what the board of Disney said to Walt when he decided to open a brick and mortar theme park when their only product to date had been a few animated films? Or how what they said when he unveiled the original vision of EPCOT as a real city with a theme park bolted on.…

A few? Walt got to Hollywood in 1923 and Disneyland opened in 1955. Perhaps more than a few. I would think the board would be fine with it, like Google's board seems to be fine with what Page is doing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt_Disney

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#57
post #36
post #13

Musk wants to colonize and live in Mars and Page is the most ambitious CEO of the universe?

I'd rather live forever than on Mars.

And that way you can live on Mars some day. :)

Actually we must let people make progress where ever they are interested.

After all the guy who built the first brick didn't know someday they would used to build pyramids.

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#58

But while the company still earns the majority of its revenue from advertising, during his tenure Page has helped to diversify the business. Notably, YouTube is expected to generate nearly $6 billion in revenue this year Maybe I am being pedantic but aren't revenues from Youtube also based on advertising? To the broader point though, why aren't more investors also putting money toward these "moonshots?" Is it because…

Why didn't investors put money toward creating the real actual moonshot? Because, amazing idea that it was, there was no sustainable business there.

Just because an idea is inspiring, amazing, even culturally transformative, that doesn't mean it can be a business. And generally speaking, investors are only interested in ideas that can be businesses. (That's what makes them investors instead of philanthropists...or politicians.)

Here's another reason--new technologies don't always win, because older technologies improve too. When I was editing a tech e-newsletter over a decade ago, a major hot new technology was called organic light-emitting diodes (OLED). This display technology had a huge viewing angle, did not need a backlight, and was super power efficient. It could be printed onto plastic substrates that were flexible and even translucent. It was going to kill the LCD.

Except, it didn't. LCDs improved fast enough to hold onto the market--they got LED backlights, power efficiency, higher and higher resolutions, better viewing angles, better colors, and (maybe most importantly) cheaper and cheaper and cheaper because the volumes were so huge. And it turned out that OLED's had some problems that were not so easily solved. So while OLED is used commercially today, the volumes are small. LCDs, so far, have kept on winning.

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#59

It would be great to see google diversify their business model as well as their technology so they weren't getting most of their profit from advertising.

I think Google also thinks this would be great, but they haven't figured out how to do it yet. Hence the many bets on new technology.

Re: Larry Page is making huge bets on new technology

#60
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Search, on the other hand, still has massive room for improvement. This is true, but it's also a really hard problem and most likely any improvements will require enormous scale to implement (because they'll be based on statistical analysis of prior search queries), which only Google and a handful of others have. So no network effects, but huge economies of scale. Plus, having used some other search engines (DuckDu…

I suspect you could go a rediculusly long way with crated searches. Basically page rank with ~10-100x the hand tuning to more or less kill off SEO.

http://searchengineland.com/google-25-of-queries-are-new-add...

25% of google searches are unique. I bet another 25% would be so rare and numerous you couldn't possibly have time to tune them. In fact, when you think about how much revenue a single search brings, a search is going to have to happen on the order of 1,000 times (at least?) before you can have a human hand tuning them.

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