Entrepreneurs think they’re badass • Hacker News Board

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#51

Post by ryancarson » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:06 AM UTC

nikcub wrote: post #36

ryancarson wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've heard the following advice frequently amongst non-tech entrepreneurs: aim your first exit for a million, then 10 million, then aim for the home runs. This idea seems laughable to me. As if you can perfectly time and control those outcomes. Ha! :)

It is more to do with scale than the actual figures. In using sums like "million dollar", "10 million dollar" and then terms like "home run", "swing" etc. you're actually trying to define different scales of startup ideas that don't have a better terminology - but probably should. There is a completely different risk profile in small businesses, then paid apps, then freemium products, then ad supported products. They…

Fair point - revenue is just a way to speak about size. Amongst my CEO friends, yearly revenue is used as the blunt measurement of the size of business.

I would say there's some validity to the fact that each step can build on the previous. I almost laugh when I think about how little I knew back in 2004 about the mechanics, tactics and financing of startups. However, that knowledge wasn't the limiting factor. It was the idea.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#52

Post by coralreef » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:08 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #12

ryancarson wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think "focus on getting lucky" is quite right either. I didn't sift through all the available opportunities and choose changing education. I was personally interested in this problem - it mattered to me on an emotional level. I've interviewed Evan Williams and Mark Zuckerberg personally and I see the same pattern there. It kind of sucks to say "You just need to be interested personally in solving a problem" b…

> I don't think you can simply identify a problem and solve it, without the personal passion. Sam Altman indicates this is true in his first lecture at Stanford's startup course.

Interesting contrast to PG's earlier convention of "the idea doesn't matter as much as the founders because the idea can/will change".

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#53

Post by xiaoma » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:09 AM UTC

paul9290 wrote: post #37

Indeed, the following factors below is what makes you a success... 1. Luck/Serendipity - Your startup launches for the first or fifth time & boom gets traction, which money/success immediately follows. Think Pinterest, Uber, Facebook, Youtube; basically it's like winning the lottery! and 2. Network - You know the right people & or convinced them to give you their resources (their connections & money). With this you c…

YouTube was especially amazing in its speed. It went from zero to a $1.6B acquisition is just a year and a half.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#54

Post by jsonmez » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:20 AM UTC

ryancarson wrote: post #48

jsonmez wrote: post #45

What he says not only proves that he is absolutely right, but it also proves that he is absolutely wrong. Kind of reminds me of this: After his service in the war, Socrates devoted himself to his favorite pastime: the pursuit of truth. His reputation as a philosopher, literally meaning 'a lover of wisdom', soon spread all over Athens and beyond. When told that the Oracle of Delphi had revealed to one of his friends t…

I think that was either a huge compliment, or a terrible slight, but I can't quite figure out which one :)

Let me put it this way: You see things that other people don't.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#55

Post by wamatt » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:28 AM UTC

The author makes a familiar point, though it's worth repeating, if only as a reminder to stay humble.

That said, I can't help but recall a quote from one of the greatest pro golfers:

"The harder I practice, the luckier I get" - Gary Player

Note: the logic only flows one way, in that working hard does not mean one will be successful. Also, there are scant examples of self-made (eg. not inherited) successes without working extremely hard. In other words it's a mostly necessary, but not sufficient condition.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#56

Post by fivedogit » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:46 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #12

ryancarson wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think "focus on getting lucky" is quite right either. I didn't sift through all the available opportunities and choose changing education. I was personally interested in this problem - it mattered to me on an emotional level. I've interviewed Evan Williams and Mark Zuckerberg personally and I see the same pattern there. It kind of sucks to say "You just need to be interested personally in solving a problem" b…

> I don't think you can simply identify a problem and solve it, without the personal passion. Sam Altman indicates this is true in his first lecture at Stanford's startup course.

Oh I think you absolutely can. In 2002-3 I worked at a PR firm in DC and identified a shortcoming we were experiencing regarding broadcast TV monitoring. I quit my job, built a distributed TV ingestion system + SaaS interface and signed 75 customers to paying subscriptions over the course of a few years.

Did I have any "passion" for broadcast monitoring? Absolutely not. I merely had a passion for starting a successful business.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#57

Post by adamzerner » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:51 AM UTC

[Probability is in the mind](http://lesswrong.com/lw/oj/probability_is_in_the_mind/). It's a reflection of our limited information, not reality. There really isn't anything inherently probabilistic about startups. If we had the right information and enough reasoning ability, we would be able to turn the dials just right. That's in theory.

In practice, it's hard to acquire enough information. This is where luck comes into play. You need luck when your information is limited.

But in practice, I don't think we should be overly humble worshipers of this "luck". Yes, it's pretty important, but I think you could reach a point of having enough information and reasoning ability where luck is a notably smaller component of success than skill. I think that we have a ways to go in terms of improving our information and reasoning ability.

* For example, startup ideas are rarely strategically chosen amongst carefully thought out alternatives. They usually just emerge from a side-project.

* And founders really struggle to [isolate](http://lesswrong.com/lw/bc3/sotw_be_specific/) what it really is that gives them a competitive advantage over their competitors.

I think that in 50 years, people will have gotten "good enough" at startups such that luck is a smaller determinant of success than skill.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#58

Post by chavesn » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 1:58 AM UTC

Summary: Hey, I run an awesome company and look at my face on this magazine.

Actually, I really am impressed, and it looks like Carson has good reason to brag. That's cool. But I don't feel like there is all that much substance here.

For one, I think Carson himself is discounting that the difference between doing nothing and making $450K on the sale of a business is actually bigger than $450K and the $100M business he's building now.

He's living proof that there is more to it than luck, but he's saying the opposite.

I guess what's really bugging me here is that the message here is meant to be valuable -- "Anyone can do it." But paradoxically, when Carson and others like him give themselves no credit for their success, then there is nothing we can learn from them. It's like participation trophies -- they don't really teach anybody how to search inside themselves and find the way to win.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#59

Post by ryancarson » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 2:03 AM UTC

chavesn wrote: post #58

Summary: Hey, I run an awesome company and look at my face on this magazine. Actually, I really am impressed, and it looks like Carson has good reason to brag. That's cool. But I don't feel like there is all that much substance here. For one, I think Carson himself is discounting that the difference between doing nothing and making $450K on the sale of a business is actually bigger than $450K and the $100M business h…

> when Carson and others like him give themselves no credit for their success, then there is nothing we can learn from them.

That's the whole point of the post. There aren't any quick tips, todos or silver bullets I can give you that will help you. The post isn't meant to be ultimately affirming. It's just reality as I see it.

> Summary: Hey, I run an awesome company and look at my face on this magazine.

I'm sorry that's your takeaway. I've failed to communicate to you the reason I wrote it.

Re: Entrepreneurs think they’re badass

#60

Post by chavesn » Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 2:12 AM UTC

ryancarson wrote: post #59

chavesn wrote: post #58

Summary: Hey, I run an awesome company and look at my face on this magazine. Actually, I really am impressed, and it looks like Carson has good reason to brag. That's cool. But I don't feel like there is all that much substance here. For one, I think Carson himself is discounting that the difference between doing nothing and making $450K on the sale of a business is actually bigger than $450K and the $100M business h…

> when Carson and others like him give themselves no credit for their success, then there is nothing we can learn from them. That's the whole point of the post. There aren't any quick tips, todos or silver bullets I can give you that will help you. The post isn't meant to be ultimately affirming. It's just reality as I see it. > Summary: Hey, I run an awesome company and look at my face on this magazine. I'm sorry th…

Hey, glad to see you're here. Let me clarify.

As humble as your position is, I'm trying to say that you should be proud of your success, because there is probably good reason for it. I'm not one to tell you whether you actually believe that or not, but I would suspect it to be true.

But, I do totally agree about "quick tips, todos, or silver bullets". Regardless of that, I'm sure there is something reasonable special about you that has driven you in particular to create at least three moderately successful businesses. Something we could probably learn from.