I Had to Develop an iPhone App to Understand Swing Trading • Hacker News Board

Re: I Had to Develop an iPhone App to Understand Swing Trading

#51

Post by MagicWishMonkey » Wed, Sep 24, 2014, 8:37 PM UTC

hnnewguy wrote: post #49

MagicWishMonkey wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vanguard Vanguard Vanguard. Don't try to be clever. Just invest your money in a few different indexes and let it be. Last year my account grew ~30%, it's increased 16.1% so far this year (the market isn't as crazy as it was in 2013 but it's not bad, either). You need to be disciplined enough to let your money sit and resist the temptation to do dumb things when the market dips. It's not rocket science, the best way t…

>Last year my account grew ~30%, it's increased 16.1% so far this year Everyone looks smart during a bull run-up. That same SPY allocation would have been crushed in 2008-2009. On average, you'll get average results. The CAGR of SPY for the past 100 or so years is about 6.5%, inflation adjusted. Good, but not 30% good.

I know the 30% return was an anomaly, but the 10 year returns on one of my funds is still in the ~10% range (even accounting for the recession), so I'm not really worried about it. It's better than a savings account, that's for sure.

Re: I Had to Develop an iPhone App to Understand Swing Trading

#52

Post by MagicWishMonkey » Wed, Sep 24, 2014, 8:40 PM UTC

encoderer wrote: post #40

MagicWishMonkey wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vanguard Vanguard Vanguard. Don't try to be clever. Just invest your money in a few different indexes and let it be. Last year my account grew ~30%, it's increased 16.1% so far this year (the market isn't as crazy as it was in 2013 but it's not bad, either). You need to be disciplined enough to let your money sit and resist the temptation to do dumb things when the market dips. It's not rocket science, the best way t…

Your 20 months of returns hardly make a compelling argument. We are in the midst of a 3 year old bull market. We are just barely off all time highs in the S&P and Dow. Nasdaq is also killing it -- even after some pullback in high beta (volatility) stocks. Your returns the last 2 years are not typical of an average year. A return approaching double digits over a long trendline is not beyond reach, but it would be a mi…

All of the vanguard funds have graphs charting the returns year over year since the fund was created.

The ones that crashed and burned in the recession are the ones most likely to provide a high return in a bull market, there are plenty that were largely unaffected by the recession (mostly securities) but you won't benefit as much from a bull market with those.

I have a blend of different funds.

Re: I Had to Develop an iPhone App to Understand Swing Trading

#53

Post by encoderer » Wed, Sep 24, 2014, 10:05 PM UTC

MagicWishMonkey wrote: post #52

encoderer wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your 20 months of returns hardly make a compelling argument. We are in the midst of a 3 year old bull market. We are just barely off all time highs in the S&P and Dow. Nasdaq is also killing it -- even after some pullback in high beta (volatility) stocks. Your returns the last 2 years are not typical of an average year. A return approaching double digits over a long trendline is not beyond reach, but it would be a mi…

All of the vanguard funds have graphs charting the returns year over year since the fund was created. The ones that crashed and burned in the recession are the ones most likely to provide a high return in a bull market, there are plenty that were largely unaffected by the recession (mostly securities) but you won't benefit as much from a bull market with those. I have a blend of different funds.

All ETFs and mutual funds have this, I believe it's SEC mandated. Regardless, your points may or may not be true but how something performs in a bull market isn't strictly the point. You need to average your returns over a long timeline.

There is nothing special about Vanguard ETFs, and even if you feel you are diversified there's an old saying that in a severe downturn the correlation of everything goes to 1. So most likely, in a downturn, everything you hold will go down, even if you feel you're diversified. This of course is not a law, just a probability.

(And just as a helpful FYI, both stocks and bonds are securities)