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China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

bbc.co.uk

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Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#51

Post by lisptime »

veidr wrote: post #25
sdrothrock wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because none of the countries whose territories China is going after -- not even Japan -- would do well in a straight up military conflict. I'm curious about why you don't think Japan would do well in a straight-up military conflict.

Japan's self-defense force is better-equipped, I will grant, but there are a few reasons. One is that there is always a higher level China could escalate to. I mean, in the end game they have nukes and Japan doesn't. But even if it didn't get to that level, China is a totalitarian regime with a history of brutally suppressing dissent, and I also assume that China would be willing to lose a lot more lives to make gain…

In a democracy, that public support really matters.

Indeed.

Since the end of World War II, there have been 248 armed conflicts in 153 locations around the world. The United States launched 201 overseas military operations between the end of World War II and 2001, and since then, others, including Afghanistan and Iraq.

http://scientistsascitizens.org/2014/05/15/academics-and-sci...

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#52

Post by Jack000 »

veidr wrote: post #20

I've watched with fascination as the Japanese Senkaku islands slowly and gradually came to be labeled 'disputed' in the western media, after China's recent claims. It seems like China has figured out a way to hack the media (the free media outside of China, I mean -- the government there obviously has root on Chinese TV and newspapers). Japanese ownership of this territory is basically as settled under international…

the claims on the South China sea are patently ridiculous, but I don't think it can be compared with the senkaku islands. From what I've read China actually did have better claim over those islands prior to 1884 and immediately after WWII, but didn't assert those claims because well.. the islands were worthless. Now that they've found oil they want to roll back the clock.

I think there is a fundamental cultural difference in the way the west and China views the dispute. To the west if you found a piece of land and lived there for 100 years, it's yours - that's how the US was founded after all. But to China it's just the latest in a series of conflicts with Japan going back hundreds of years.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#53

Post by seanmcdirmid »

anigbrowl wrote: post #3
adventured wrote: post #2

Every time I see discussion about the nine dash line, I can't help but wonder how it can seem sane to anybody that China should have the water rights to an area ~600 km south of what is blatantly Vietnam's coastal waters (and the southern tip of their land) and just barely north of Malaysia's physical territory. I know the correct answer is: China doesn't care, and isn't concerned with reason when it comes to the nin…

To quote a Chinese official from a few years ago 'Vietnam is a small country and China is a big country and that is just a fact.'

Vietnam fared fairly well against China the last time they fought over Cambodia.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#54

Post by netcan »

veidr wrote: post #20

I've watched with fascination as the Japanese Senkaku islands slowly and gradually came to be labeled 'disputed' in the western media, after China's recent claims. It seems like China has figured out a way to hack the media (the free media outside of China, I mean -- the government there obviously has root on Chinese TV and newspapers). Japanese ownership of this territory is basically as settled under international…

Here's the things about "disputed" territorial claims, national rights, sovereignty and such: They are not real. There is no objective basis for resolving them. Borders, maritime boundaries the existence of such a thing as "Chinese," "Scottish" or "Kurdish" is only given substance by people believing it and acting as if it were real.

Every piece of land in the world has been competed for and disputed many times. Sometimes identities such as "Chinese," "Scottish" or "Kurdish" are created or hardened specifically to serve that dispute. Other times they are dissolved by the outcome of the dispute.

I'm not trying to make some grand claim that "It's all an illusion." China is disputing Japan's ownership of these islands. The ownership of these islands is in dispute. We can either have some sort of lawful (or otherwise peaceful) way of resolving these disputes or we can go back to the traditional method of war and intimidation.

Our international legal systems were put in place in politically difficult circumstances to prevent world wars. They have definitions of territorial claims and some shambles of a system for resolving them and (theoretically) enforcing them. But this system (being a shambles) get very little respect. They are ignored by major power, minor powers and sometimes by upstarts (ISIS declared the border between Iraq & Syria dissolved and implemented that declaration).

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#55

Post by shangxiao »

afterburner wrote: post #35
sixQuarks wrote: post #30

I don't like where this is all going. I've seen too often how seemingly trivial things can lead to all-out wars. Thanks to Iraq and Afghanistan, the US has spent a lot of treasure. The population doesn't have the desire for more war. Now Russia and China are seeing how far they can push. I hope I'm wrong, but I feel like we're seeing the beginnings of things that lead to a major war between Russia & China on one side…

Now? Nuclear World War has been a possibility for 60 years now. And 60 years ago the US was actually fighting China.

Yes but the threat of a nuclear war has been considerably low for the past 20 years. Now we have generations of people not knowing what it was like to live under the threat of nuclear annihilation.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#56

Post by kgabis »

Dolimiter wrote: post #29

When did this type of website design become acceptable? I'm starting to see it more and more. It reminds me of when "Multimedia CD-ROMs" first appeared circa mid-1990s, where flashy interfaces were ranked much higher than useability. Please stop it. Give me a webpage with text, and images that I can enlarge when clicked. Thank you.

This trend is terrible, not only those webpages are hard to read, but they're also hogging CPU. I had to close a tab with it, because it reduced my remaining time on battery from 50mins to 20 mins...

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#57

Post by netcan »

veidr wrote: post #25
sdrothrock wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because none of the countries whose territories China is going after -- not even Japan -- would do well in a straight up military conflict. I'm curious about why you don't think Japan would do well in a straight-up military conflict.

Japan's self-defense force is better-equipped, I will grant, but there are a few reasons. One is that there is always a higher level China could escalate to. I mean, in the end game they have nukes and Japan doesn't. But even if it didn't get to that level, China is a totalitarian regime with a history of brutally suppressing dissent, and I also assume that China would be willing to lose a lot more lives to make gain…

I wonder how confident the CPC is in the political stability of China. Conflict is a wildcard and it can have all sorts of consequences.

I don't really know how to evaluate the claim myself as a removed outsider, but there seems to be a pretty credible claim that politically, China is economic growth addicted. IE, any kind of stagnation or substantially reduced growth rate endangers the political status quo.

People standing over their 14 year old kids to get the grades expect a salaried lifestyle for that kid in 10 years that isn't available today. They are expecting economic growth to create it. If, when that kid is 19 and in University it starts to look like a white collar job for graduates is unlikely, this kid studying Business and International Studies is not going to achieve what his parents worked. If he finds himself with something they unanimously agree is beneath him….

War is tricky.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#58

Post by ekianjo »

mikeyouse wrote: post #24
ekianjo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is only who has the military power to dictate terms. Yeah, just like the American invasion of Iraq in 2004. Just because they could, despite it being unlawful at all international levels. But hey, Russia also does it, so there's not really any good example out there of a country that does not seize opportunities.

> Yeah, just like the American invasion of Iraq in 2004. The US war in Iraq started in March, 2003.

Alright, I was one year off.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#59

Post by ekianjo »

justin66 wrote: post #43
ekianjo wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is only who has the military power to dictate terms. Yeah, just like the American invasion of Iraq in 2004. Just because they could, despite it being unlawful at all international levels. But hey, Russia also does it, so there's not really any good example out there of a country that does not seize opportunities.

The United States never made a territorial claim to any part of Iraq.

When you come with a large army, invade the country, remove the local government, and replace it with puppets working for your country's interests, "territorial claim" is just a twist of words.

Re: China's Island Factory – New islands being made in disputed China Sea

#60

Post by veidr »

lisptime wrote: post #51
veidr wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan's self-defense force is better-equipped, I will grant, but there are a few reasons. One is that there is always a higher level China could escalate to. I mean, in the end game they have nukes and Japan doesn't. But even if it didn't get to that level, China is a totalitarian regime with a history of brutally suppressing dissent, and I also assume that China would be willing to lose a lot more lives to make gain…

In a democracy, that public support really matters. Indeed. Since the end of World War II, there have been 248 armed conflicts in 153 locations around the world. The United States launched 201 overseas military operations between the end of World War II and 2001, and since then, others, including Afghanistan and Iraq. http://scientistsascitizens.org/2014/05/15/academics-and-sci...

Yeah, my point wasn't that democracies don't wage wars -- just that they can't ignore the will of the citizenry (unless they don't actually have a democracy).

As an American, the USA's bottomless well of rah-rah nationalism any time they trot out the troops has always been a mystery. But it's definitely there, and I don't think any other country since the USSR has come close to the USA in terms of attacking other countries.

I also disagree with the comment below about a war-weary USA having a tepid response to China seizing a minor uninhabited American island. I think public support for a military response would be huge, like always.

What I was saying was that in Japan specifically, that knee-jerk support would not be there.

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