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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#51

Post by timdorr »

pbreit wrote: post #47
dave1619 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Resale value in 5+ years out should be very good. I've been watching the used market for over a year and it's been very, very strong. There's not much used inventory being sold and owners seem to love the Model S's. The other factor with resale is that the Model S is light years ahead of any other cars in terms of technology. So, in 5 years the current center console of the Model S will still be far superior in terms…

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity" No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

The battery replacement cost is $12k for an 85kWh: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase

And the retention is closer to 85% at 100k miles: http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-... (Keep in mind, the Roadster has a previous generation of battery pack technology)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#52

Post by southphillyman »

js2 wrote: post #30

Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance. The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt). The other signi…

These are dealership prices I assume. Warrantied work at a third party repair shop would have probably been almost half as expensive. $1K to replace tires and brakes on a honda? Sheesh

Credentials: Owner of a 2002 Honda with 210K miles on it currently.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#53

Post by epistasis »

pbreit wrote: post #47
dave1619 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Resale value in 5+ years out should be very good. I've been watching the used market for over a year and it's been very, very strong. There's not much used inventory being sold and owners seem to love the Model S's. The other factor with resale is that the Model S is light years ahead of any other cars in terms of technology. So, in 5 years the current center console of the Model S will still be far superior in terms…

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity" No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

I always wonder where these super-confident statements come from that seem to be contrary to reality.

How do you know? Why are you so certain? Where do you pull these numbers from?

It seems like a surefire recipe to ruin one's credibility.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#55

Post by giarc »

Deusdies wrote: post #8
giarc wrote: post #6

Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would address the exclusion.

Well, generally the North American car manufacturers produce cars of much poorer quality compared to the Japanese, Korean, and European car makers.

As others have replied, that is perhaps an antiquated perception.

I think the theory also comes from the fact that the Big 3 seem to have many more recalls than foreign companies. However in recent years, Toyota has actually recalled more cars than any other company [1]. Recalls are most often initiated by the company and not the government and therefore stats can change depending on the willingness of the company to start a recall (as seen by GMs recent problems). Anecdotally, the Asian car manufacturers rarely ever publicly announced recalls and would simply perform the recall when you took your car in for service. Therefore customers never knew there were issues and they were branded as "reliable" cars when perhaps they shouldn't have been.

1. http://articles.latimes.com/2014/feb/04/autos/la-fi-hy-toyot...

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#56

Post by anxman »

As a 2013 Model S owner, even I am skeptical of the OP's calculation. The big "what if", as mentioned by other posters, is the depreciation value of the vehicle. EV vehicles typically depreciate more quickly than ICE vehicles and we don't have enough trailing sales data to know appropriate numbers yet.

That being said, I love everything about Tesla and even if the car depreciates more quickly than a Mercedes or BMW, I'd still be happy with it.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#57

Post by makomk »

timdorr wrote: post #51
pbreit wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity" No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

The battery replacement cost is $12k for an 85kWh: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase And the retention is closer to 85% at 100k miles: http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-... (Keep in mind, the Roadster has a previous generation of battery pack technology)

That's $12k now in order to get a replacement battery in 8 years time, it'd presumably be more if you paid at the time, and it's not clear they're even offering the scheme - that post just says they will "in the near future".

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#58

Post by TylerE »

not_that_noob wrote: post #25
not_that_noob wrote: post #11

As much as I admire Elon and Tesla, Consumer Reports rated Audi clean diesel at a cheaper cost per mile than Tesla. So the comparison I'd really like to see is Tesla against the Audis.

My bad - I misremembered - this is the quote from CR: "When it comes to efficiency, the Tesla is a runaway. The A7 gets an impressive 28 mpg overall, but the Model S delivers the equivalent of 84 mpg. That translates into only 4.4 cents per mile for the Tesla (based on an electricity rate of 11 cents per kilowatt- hour) vs. 14.3 cents for the Audi (based on diesel costing $4.00 per gallon)." As you were. EDIT: Ok I n…

And then you can look at something like the BMW 328d that is "only" $42k and gets 43mpg, or a VW Golf TDI (Disclaimer: I own one) for around $27k and 40-45mpg in the real world.

FWIW, my lifetime actual fuel costs have $0.110/mi over almost 40,000 miles, and that's based on basiclly worst possible variables... auto transmission instead of a stick, hot climate (lots of A/C usage, which is about a 2-5mpg ding), and lots of city driving.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#59

Post by jstultz »

I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley.

I'm not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my most recent PG&E bill are as follows:

$0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 for the next 340.9 kWh and then up.

In my area, according to my bill, average household usage (for the past month) is 400kWh, and 250kWh for "efficient homes." I'd imagine average use is higher in the summer months due to air conditioning, etc, and higher in the winter months due to heating and lighting.

So, right off the bat, $0.12/kWh is low, but perhaps rates were a bit lower when he did this analysis, or he lives in an area with cheaper rates? But let's assume that he's an efficient user of electricity, and uses 250 kWh/month for things aside from the car. He estimated 15k miles per year, at 3 miles/kWh, that's 416 kWh per month, which works out to roughlly $65.50/month, or $785/year, not $600.

If we instead assume he's an average user in a home that's not "efficient", it goes way up to roughly $92/month, or about $1100/year.

Obviously I don't know this person's exact rates for electricity, or his usage, and it may be the case that there are credits associated with having an electric car that can bring his average rates down or prevent him from going into the higher tiers (as he said, he could often charge for free at work), but regardless an estimate of $0.12/kWh seems strikingly low. I'm sure there are areas of the country where that's reasonable, or even high, but I don't think the Bay Area is one of them.

Of all the cost analyses of Tesla ownership that I've seen (admittedly few), I have yet to see one that attempts to take into account the higher marginal electricity cost associated with using significantly more electricity.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#60

Post by fps »

takeda wrote: post #27
lafar6502 wrote: post #22

- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? - What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tes…

> How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? There's not much to service, and normally you should do it once a year. The mechanics currently don't have schematics for Model S so it probably feels better to have it fixed at the company. I would imagine that you could get brakes…

Modern japanese made internal-combustion engines are pretty much zero maintenance at this point; in my case, over 8 years and a combined 200K miles on a Nissan and a Toyota, the engines have gotten oil and timing belt changes and that's it. Zero mechanical engine problems at all. The Subaru and Acura I had for 5 years before that were the same. However, I've had to deal with brakes, suspension, tires, climate control, airbag, electronics, etc problems much more frequently, and those issues would happen just as often on a Tesla. Possibly more often because all of those systems are much more complex on a Tesla than the systems I have. Can I get the tesla air suspension serviced at my local mechanic? How about the computerized heater controls?
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