Why the dollar is going to collapse • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#51

Post by stuffthatmatter » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 12:30 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #48

stuffthatmatter wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "100T+ debt owed to foreign countries and to ourselves" For a brief summary, check this link http://www.usdebtclock.org/ The link doesn't include US company debts (10T), or derivatives owed to other countries (200T)

That's a pretty link, but one that suffers badly from a lack of sourcing or context. The 'about' page says 'all debt clocks are updated constantly to the most precise calculations using complex formulas and exacting standards, and are verified from multiple sources.' A pity that these exacting standards do not apply to the grammar on that page, which is a poor indicator for the quality of the (secret) formulas. As fo…

You're not being a pompous prick at all; in fact, your arguments are thorough and to the point. And I do admit I am using dramatic statistics, but it is because I am trying to present evidence to an audience unfamiliar to the area of topic.

And the statistics are dramatic ....well...because they are. That's how bad things are.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#52

Post by anigbrowl » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 12:31 AM UTC

northwind wrote: post #34

As an interesting (as in "odd") exercise, go to the root node of the blog ( http://angloaustria.blogspot.com/ ) and notice the phrase "Curse of Maturin Towers". After asking yourself "WTF does that mean?", do a Google search for the aforementioned phrase ( http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=Curse+of+Maturin+Towers ); hmm, no useful results (that is, we could not find a definition). Now do a Google search for "Maturin Tow…

Well, the blog is authored by one 'Jack Maturin'. And referring to one's residence as '(Lastname) Towers' is a popular comic trope among Brits. 'Curse of Maturin Towers' has all the romance and implied danger of a Sherlock Holmes story, but stems from his rueful discovery that a confident prediction has turned out completely wrong shortly after he made it.

An American would mention Murphy's Law, without meaning to imply there was ever a legislator named Murphy who went around causing things to fail.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#53

Post by BrentRitterbeck » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 12:44 AM UTC

stuffthatmatter wrote: post #51

anigbrowl wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a pretty link, but one that suffers badly from a lack of sourcing or context. The 'about' page says 'all debt clocks are updated constantly to the most precise calculations using complex formulas and exacting standards, and are verified from multiple sources.' A pity that these exacting standards do not apply to the grammar on that page, which is a poor indicator for the quality of the (secret) formulas. As fo…

You're not being a pompous prick at all; in fact, your arguments are thorough and to the point. And I do admit I am using dramatic statistics, but it is because I am trying to present evidence to an audience unfamiliar to the area of topic. And the statistics are dramatic ....well...because they are. That's how bad things are.

I think an old saying really applies here. If you owe the rest of the world $1 million, it's your problem. If you owe the rest of the world $100 trillion, it's their problem.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#54

Post by Andys » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 1:14 AM UTC

stuffthatmatter wrote: post #35

anigbrowl wrote: post #29

You seem obsessed with this topic, but I question the quality of your sources and analysis. Of course if there were an exponential rise in money supply or similar absent a different fiscal, monetary and regulatory climate then this would be deeply alarming. But I feel you're making a meta-version of the same mistake many economists did, of over-extrapolating from a short trend. Massive policy changes inevitably resul…

there's one incorrect logic in your statement: You assume US can just slam on the brakes and the brakes would stop the car completely. When in fact, with the massive amount of baby boomers retiring/draining SS and medicare, the disappearance of our manufacturing sectors, the increasing commodity (food, oil) prices, and the need to pay back 100T+ debt owed to foreign countries and to ourselves, I suggest that it is im…

Not to mention that suddenly going missing from the international geopolitical stage would be much worse than a slow graceful retreat.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#55

Post by gnaritas » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 1:58 AM UTC

ubernostrum wrote: post #42

jwb119 wrote: post #21

i think the point here is that for the first time in quite a while the dollar has a legitimate _chance_ at hitting a doomsday scenario. whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but the odds are greater than they have been historically. keep in mind that during the depression we were on the gold standard, thus there was none of the inflationary/deflationary risk of a fiat currency..

"keep in mind that during the depression we were on the gold standard, thus there was none of the inflationary/deflationary risk of a fiat currency" Sure there was. Gold as currency is just as susceptible to instability as anything else, as a simple thought experiment can show. Consider that the supply of gold, though growing, grows extremely slowly. The supply of goods and services which are exchanged in economic tr…

> I really don't know why people harbor this mystical belief that a shiny piece of metal is somehow immune to well-understood economic principles.

Because thinking is hard.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#56

Post by asdlfj2sd33 » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 2:06 AM UTC

stuffthatmatter wrote: post #43

biohacker42 wrote: post #14

I am sure we'll see increased inflation, will it go as high as it did in the 70s-80s maybe. But this article is claiming the sky is falling. Oooh look scary charts, never mind what velocity of money is or how it works, or that the Fed can increase AND decrease the money supply, just look at those scary charts!

You believe the same Fed that gave bankers billions of dollars and is actively working against congress to be audited, is going to 'decrease the money supply', ignore our huge debt and save us all? You are drinking alot of government kool-aid. Keep watching CNBC.

Do you know what hyper inflation does to banks?

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#57

Post by barrkel » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 3:42 AM UTC

stuffthatmatter wrote: post #40

barrkel wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US govt has ~11T in debt, not 100+T. I think you're mistaking gross debt positions with net position?

I said "100T+ debt owed to foreign countries and to ourselves" For a brief summary, check this link http://www.usdebtclock.org/ The link doesn't include US company debts (10T), or derivatives owed to other countries (200T)

Derivatives, overall, are a zero-sum game. Unless by some miracle of improbability all the liabilities fall on the US side, there is no way it's going to add up to 200T, unless US companies have been incredibly foolish - and I think the foolishness has been reasonably evenly spread around.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#58

Post by trevelyan » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 9:26 AM UTC

jwb119 wrote: post #21

i think the point here is that for the first time in quite a while the dollar has a legitimate _chance_ at hitting a doomsday scenario. whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but the odds are greater than they have been historically. keep in mind that during the depression we were on the gold standard, thus there was none of the inflationary/deflationary risk of a fiat currency..

Gold was the transmission mechanism for international deflation during the Great Depression. Recovery started in country after country roughly six months after abandoning the gold standard. Countries which depreciated/unpegged their currencies recovered much faster.

Large sample regressions with graphs, detailed timelines and other supporting data in Eichengreen's Golden Fetters.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#59

Post by barrkel » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 4:02 PM UTC

fatdog789 wrote: post #44

barrkel wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, in the case of a true doomsday situation, gold will also inflate - people will be desperate, and increasing amounts of gold required to get anywhere. Without a functioning economy, everything is scarce => expensive.

I have a gun. You have gold. Which do you think is more valuable? Force trumps money, currency, and metal. In a true doomsday situation, the guy with the gun will always have more in the bank than the guy with the gold.

Using force to extort people usually ends badly, except for dictators at the top of the chain. You will never find security in weapons.

Re: Why the dollar is going to collapse

#60

Post by fatdog789 » Sat, Aug 01, 2009, 6:31 PM UTC

barrkel wrote: post #59

fatdog789 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a gun. You have gold. Which do you think is more valuable? Force trumps money, currency, and metal. In a true doomsday situation, the guy with the gun will always have more in the bank than the guy with the gold.

Using force to extort people usually ends badly, except for dictators at the top of the chain. You will never find security in weapons.

This isn't about using force to extort, this is about using force during an end-of-the-world situation.