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Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

blog.millionintegrals.com

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Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#51
post #35
post #4

Ah jebus another blogger who misunderstands bitcoin ecosystem, technology and its users. Who is looking for attention for his blog since its good linkbait. Well he/she got it. Economists (including the armchair variety like this blogger) should be delighted bitcoin exists, it gives them something to compare and measure and write about for their dismal "science" In meantime some of us continue to build for bitcoin and…

I don't understand why a blockchain completely mined by one entity would be any good. wouldn't a relational database be much better suited for this application, since decentralization is no longer an objective?

I didnt say it be good, I say it probably be implemented since a state (or central bank) controlled crypto-currency could be used to obtain more power over citizenry.

Image the state knowing exactly where you get all your money from and where you spend it (since they would have the blockchain), likes of Revenue/IRS would love it!

It would make it easier to implement welfare and stop tax fraud, this alone could be the argument used to push it thru' (tho I am not sure how politicians would get brown envelopes then) and most people would support it. Just like most people supported current UK censorship creep.

Hell call it "dysto-coin"!

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#52
Bitcoin doesn't control you.

Bitcoin isn't absolute. Everything can coexist. Blabbering on about bitcoin's "deflationary" model is as purposeless as writing incessantly about gold, coffee, national currencies, tiddlywinks, real estate, oil, and crown jewels.

There will be no "bitcoin standard" written into law. Bitcoin isn't intending to be everything to everyone. Nothing is everything to everyone. No one thing is absolute. Until a day comes when we're all serving the same cyborg empire, one need not worry about being forced to have all chips in one basket. Until then, deflation and inflation of particular assets will continue to have little overall bearing. As for bitcoin, only the artificial appearance of deflation exists. It's artificial because choice is still possible. You place value into things. You decide. If you don't like or trust bitcoin (or gold) to maintain value, don't use them. If you don't like or trust national force-backed currencies to maintain value, then try not to use them. Diversify. Talking about deflation in bitcoin becomes as meaningless as talking about the deflationary aspects of dogecoin, computer parts at a point in time, or the current yield of corn.

In other words...

More options and competition do not contract or stifle an economy. It expands choice within a form of economic homeostasis. [Wait, but, doesn't bitcoin hurt bailed-out bankers and a debt-based society!?] Right. That's the point. That's one of its many strong competitive attributes. Every asset is predicated on faith. It's faith that it will exist tomorrow, or in ten years, and have your name on it. It's just that some people would rather not place their faith into 'US economics.' Many people like that status quo. Other people do not. Other people may, on principle, find the status quo violent and abysmal; person-to-person trade itself acts as a path to peace. It's a personal decision. Choice is important like that.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#54
* There are gold standardS, there is not 1 gold standard

* Gold standards are to balance imbalances in trades between nations with each their own currency (Pound, Fran, Mark). They have little purpose on the national level.

* If deflation encourages to postpone spending, so must do interest; For the individual, the net effect (of currency becoming worth more or earning interest) is the same.

* When there is deflation, there is less need for credit. You save without the 'help' of banks. That means less friction, less wealth shaved off by banks.

* If you propagate credit whose value must be inflated away, you choose for the younger generation at the costs of pensioners who will see their life savings evaporate. The middle ground, pensions and mortgages keep their real value, seems the most fair. Ergo, Hard Money.

* Fractional lending is still possible under Bitcoin regime. Perhaps to a lesser extent, but don't we all agree there has been too much fractional lending? Also, there will be less need for credit, because of deflation.

* The author seems not to question the modern idea that everybody is entitled to large mortgages and live in (too big) houses for their economic performances. (True for UK, USA and Netherlands). In most other countries, people build their own houses over the stretch of multiple years, postponing vacations, and putting every earned penny in the new house. Result? at 35 yrs of age the house is fully owned, no banks involved. Much healthier, imho.

* In my view money and monetary policy must be designed to (only) optimally facilitate trade, production and commerce. Social justice and fair wealth re-distribution should be accomplished by taxes, and by taxes only. Using monetary policy to (also) accomplish social causes diminishes its usefulness in trade and commerce, and people will search for protection/workarounds.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're reasoning in circles. The loan is not 0% interest when denoted in dollars, since a deflationary currency will be worth more dollars as time goes by. Your reply only makes sense in a world where bitcion is the only currency in existence - a logical absurdity. You've disproved your point by negation - giving someone a 0% interest loan should indeed not be profitable, but with a deflationary currency it is. Discl…

Suppose 1 BTC = $X today and $Y in a year. If I pay my dealer 1 BTC today and he doesn't spend it, he has $Y in a year. If he extends me a 0% interest loan for 1 year, there is a probability P Loaning someone an asset at 0% is always worse than holding the asset. The value of the loan is P(repayment) x value of asset in future. The value of the asset today = value of asset in future + option value. There is no escapi…

> Loaning someone an asset at 0% is always worse than holding the asset.

Exactly. My previous reasoning was indeed a bit muddied, but what you're saying now clarifies it. I don't disagree with your math.

There are so many logical contradictions in the concept, which is why I end up making silly assertions that you correctly pointed out. Instead, the argument should simply be that the rate of return on bitcoin, due simply to built-in deflation, and expressed in dollars, may or may not be so high that it always makes sense to hold the asset rather than use it as currency to buy other assets. In which case it can't function as a currency: contradiction.

Of course, I do believe the BTC USD exchange rate will be the dominant factor in determining prices expressed in BTC in the long term, but I'm sure plenty of people would disagree. If that does happen, a lot of this becomes theoretical - the worsening exchange rate will take care of the deflation.

Note I'm not necessarily for or against bitcion. Thanks for the discussion.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#56
post #5

> In mathematics, when you write a paper, you are always standing firmly on the shoulders of generations of common knowledge that you don't need to prove yourself - you can safely assume your readers agree with you on the matter. In the same way, I will assume that we agree on the following statement: Implementing gold standard in the modern economy will have no beneficial effect for the mankind, but may have very di…

Well, if you don't agree with the premise, you can save yourself the trouble of reading the rest of the article. If more people stated their possibly controversial premises right from the start, we could all save ourselves a lot of time that would otherwise be wasted on arguments.

So, at least there's that.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#57
The article brings a very important perspective to the discussion of bitcoins. The perspective is very much grounded to our current economic system. And it is in this 'grounding' that brings a discussion about the macro view bitcoins.

The global perspective is rather difficult to consolidate with the current state of bitcoins. The perspective also is one that if we want to maintain the status quo of our current economic engine then bitcoins is not the answer but the antithesis. If we want to maintain the status quo then bitcoins or any other medium wouldn't be necessary or sought after. The fact of the matter is that so many people dislike our current system let alone understand it anymore than our leaders.

Bitcoins wasn't an answer to how to fund more wars more easily or how to help banks manage their portfolios with less fees or how to make corporations more productive. Bitcoins was an answer to the ruling class endless excuse of knowing more than the little man. Bitcoins was an answer to the endless excuses of why you should have less and them more. Bitcoins was an answer to the continue mismanagement of the individuals worth and burden. Bitcoins was an answer to the simple want of transacting without a middleman who will rob you in the process. Bitcoins was a solution at the most fundamental level: Me making a transaction using my own hardwork 'money' with you.

Will bitcoins be an answer to the global perspective brought forth by the author? Who knows but it's a good question.

Re: Gold standard was bad, but Bitcoin standard is even worse

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're reasoning in circles. The loan is not 0% interest when denoted in dollars, since a deflationary currency will be worth more dollars as time goes by. Your reply only makes sense in a world where bitcion is the only currency in existence - a logical absurdity. You've disproved your point by negation - giving someone a 0% interest loan should indeed not be profitable, but with a deflationary currency it is. Discl…

Suppose 1 BTC = $X today and $Y in a year. If I pay my dealer 1 BTC today and he doesn't spend it, he has $Y in a year. If he extends me a 0% interest loan for 1 year, there is a probability P Loaning someone an asset at 0% is always worse than holding the asset. The value of the loan is P(repayment) x value of asset in future. The value of the asset today = value of asset in future + option value. There is no escapi…

> Loaning someone an asset at 0% is always worse than holding the asset.

Nit: if the carry cost of the asset is zero. This is _not_ true for dollars (at least at large corporate/pension fund/hedge fund scale) and various government securities have occasionally sold at negative nominal interest rates.

(It is, essentially, true for BTC, which is why your analysis is largely correct here, but there certainly are cases where one would reasonably lend USD or the like at 0%.)

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