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The end of the Facebook era

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Re: The end of the Facebook era

#51

Post by mlyang »

The downfall of Facebook is what was the crux of its initial success: the comprehensive largeness of one's social network. On Facebook, most people accept all acquaintances and friends they have in real life (should they get a friend request)-- it would be rude not to-- and as a result, one's Friends List is usually a pretty good indication of one's entire social network. This allowed Facebook to gain its initial network effects, but this is also now paralyzing the activity of its individual users. I feel uncomfortable posting extensively online because there are many people in my friends list who I feel uncomfortable seeing my things (and I don't care enough to create Private lists).

As far as addressing the teen exodus, and related to the above impact, Facebook's NewsFeed is just not interesting anymore. Back when Facebook started, I was friends largely with 100-300 people whose lives I actually was interested in. I am not interested in the minutiae of my current 1000+ friends' lives, and their endless and meaningless statuses bore me to no end. Facebook wanted its NewsFeed to break out of the echo chamber effect, and therefore made the NewsFeed algorithm more random, putting the onus of creating relevant NewsFeeds on the individual user (through the creation of individual lists of friends). But USERS WANT THE ECHO CHAMBER EFFECT! I don't want to know what's happening in the "town square,"-- I want to know what's happening with my 20 closest friends. Because teens joined on when this new paradigm was already in place, there's nothing to draw them in. It's just not interesting-- and apps like Instagram and Snapchat are more engaging as a result because they're more personal.

Lastly, Facebook is way too cluttered. It has an atrocious UI, so many buttons all over the place. Mark Zuckerberg's utilitarian aesthetic lives to today, only it's way worse because Facebook has so much more (useless) functionality. Instagram and Snapchat are clean and elegant-- it's not jarring to open those apps like it is to navigate Facebook.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#52

Post by edgrimley »

Mobile has radically changed the social adoption cycle more than we've realized. Facebook is clearly the product of desktop world, where much of the information that made it valuable, particularly the social graph, needed to be contributed to the product to be effective.

The move to quickly-adopted "apps" has accelerated in mobile because the plumbing is already in place:

1. Contact list / address book Implicit network already exists, does not need to be built in the new product.

2. Location GPS takes apps beyond check-ins - adding context and information to posts. Even enabling new sorts of dating networks.

3. Media Photos and video, combined with location, contacts and persistent connections on one device make it easier than ever to include photos and video.

This combination (not to mention building on the Facebook platform) will continue to enable faster developing and more narrow focused "networks".

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#53

Post by VLM »

"What was cool in the 70s wasn’t cool in the 80s."

Its very important he phrased it that way, because bell bottoms had another day in the sun. Happily young women wearing skin tight spandex/yoga pants from the 90s had another day in the 10s. Its difficult to find a womens fashion fad that doesn't repeat every 20-ish years.

The endless rotating wheel of fashion and fads doesn't rotate at a speed of 1 rotation per decade. Its more like 1 rotation per 2 decades aka generation.

I predict that 2030 will be an excellent year for 2010 style social networks.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#54

Post by VLM »

TrevorJ wrote: post #49

Social networking needs to be a specification. Imagine if email worked the same way social networks worked, it would be ridiculous. You could only communicate with other gmail users, or whatever users were on the platform you adopted. I understand from a business standpoint why social networks have evolved the way they have, but from a utility standpoint it is a lose/lose to have these walled gardens. What would be m…

RSS feeds on a blog and "click here to email me" links?

Personally I'm waiting for someone to "reinvent" NNTP.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#55

Post by baddox »

selmnoo wrote: post #34
melling wrote: post #20

Here are some titles for the next story. "The end of the Apple era" "The end of the Microsoft era" "The end of the Netflix era" "The end of the Yahoo era" Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousan…

Why. Why must you do this. Why must you dismiss articles on hackneyed grounds and kill the chance for an interesting discussion about the nature and direction of social technologies. I thought this article was very interesting, it brought to light several factual points, and several not-heard-before insights -- e.g., I thought this in particular was very true and interesting: This is why social networks, like Google+…

> Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories?

> Why. Why must you do this. Why must you dismiss articles on hackneyed grounds and kill the chance for an interesting discussion about the nature and direction of social technologies.

For the same reason. People like being perceived by others as contrarian or controversial, and people like perceiving themselves to be most clever/insightful/prescient than the next guy.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#56

Post by Jhsto »

the_watcher wrote: post #17

>> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. This is why the "millennials are leaving Facebook" worry isn't actually real. Yes, middle schoolers and high schoolers aren't using Facebook. They are at a stage in their life where the idea of their parents being able to see into their life is scary. Their social circle is also disproport…

I'am 18 and I agree with you. The way the discussion one day happened in status updates have now moved to usually hidden groups. The groups are usually built around some specific event, say prams, or alternatively around some common interest such as LAN gaming or binge drinking. It works as a new and more appealing way to create what you may consider mailing lists. Engaging in those groups is easier as you post something relevant to the topic and know that your or your friends aunt will not see what you said.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#57

Post by gnaritas »

melling wrote: post #20

Here are some titles for the next story. "The end of the Apple era" "The end of the Microsoft era" "The end of the Netflix era" "The end of the Yahoo era" Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousan…

> Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories?

Why are you wasting time complaining about it if you don't like it. Just ignore it and move on.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#58

Post by hfsktr »

MetaCosm wrote: post #38
melling wrote: post #20

Here are some titles for the next story. "The end of the Apple era" "The end of the Microsoft era" "The end of the Netflix era" "The end of the Yahoo era" Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousan…

> Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? Because no one remembers the misses, only hits. > Where are those guys who predicated that Apple Stores were such a stupid idea? We need to start keeping score. People are starting to keep score! Websites like http://www.pundittracker.com/ are starting to come out of the woodwork, and as more people help collect data (person X claimed Y would happe…

Just don't include a date/timeframe and claim it hasn't happened yet

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#59

Post by Theodores »

chaz wrote: post #9

An alternate opinion: Facebook is heading toward the Trough of Disillusionment of the Hype Cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle Facebook was so ridiculously hot a few years ago that it couldn't possibly have met all of its expectations for changing how we all communicate, replacing all other messaging mediums, dominating how we shop and buy, the portal for all things entertainment, etc. > Teens likely see F…

Weirdly the Google 'trends' graph correlates if you click on the 'forecast' button:

http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02y1vz%2C%20...

However, a forecast is just a forecast, not happened yet. The 'trend' graph spikes with the IPO which had no relevance for 99% of Facebook users. Take that spike out, ignore the 'forecast' and Facebook is doing the 'myspace curve' and in a similar time frame.

Anyway, where is the Facebook login for Hacker News?

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#60

Post by crazygringo »

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections.

I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook.

It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's no indication that teens are using something else that will replace Facebook when they're in their 20's and 30's -- you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat. Every indication is that teens get onto Facebook once they stop being teens, correct me if I'm wrong.

Can we stop talking about this ineffable "cool" factor, until there's any kind of evidence that it is actually necessary for Facebook's continued success? I mean, I don't remember Facebook ever being cool. It's always been pretty drab, a pretty bland boring blue, with an interface much like an OS. But it just works better than the alternatives, and keeps working better. Why people are suddenly constantly talking about this "lack of cool" is beyond me.

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