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Thoughts on Bitcoin

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#51

Post by Udo »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #42
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

> Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow.

As with most investments, you need to think medium and long term. Barring some kind of final(!) crash, there isn't anywhere to go for BTC but up. Mainstream media and ordinary people are just now starting to talk about it. Stay with your investment, and don't sell before it at least doubled. If it crashes temporarily, that's fine too: chaos is a ladder.

Within reasonable confidence, I'd say: Whatever you do, do not sell at a loss. That's the moment when it becomes a loss. Don't lose your nerve.

Personally, I had a bit over 100 BTC. When it reached $20 the second time, I sold it because I could use the money and also because I became nervous. While it wasn't the biggest money mistake of my life, it's certainly a whopper in retrospect. Don't be like me ;)

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#52

Post by notdrunkatall »

ljd wrote: post #49
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

What gives Bitcoin its value right now is speculators, and what speculators are betting on is widespread adoption. If that never materializes because some other currency has taken its place, bitcoin's value will decline.

And it is only a small subset of the population which ascribe value to monetary decentralization. I count myself among them, but I don't delude myself into thinking that the majority feels the same way.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#53

Post by 001sky »

ezl wrote: post #36

I normally love SA's writing, but this opinion piece is really narrow minded and I think misses the point. cs702 had a fantastic comment a few days ago in another thread [1]: Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a n…

This is a great comment, thanks for sharing it here. There seems to be a demand for a synthetic currency that is not subject to monopoly and manipulation by a political authority. Right or wrong, people do seem to be putting there money where there mouth is. The way this author puts it, its like bit-coin is a combination of gold, farmland, london real-estate, post-war modern art, and Square/stripe all rolled into one. If nothing else, BTC is "on trend" in multiple dimensions. And connecting the dots in an interesting way...

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#54

Post by [deleted] »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #42
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

[deleted]

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#55

Post by rsingel »

sjtgraham wrote: post #15
modeless wrote: post #3

If a receiver of bitcoins sells them for dollars right away, that isn't necessarily money laundering or tax avoidance. I don't know if you've tried to transfer money overseas lately, but banks tend to make it difficult and expensive. An international wire transfer is not a trivial thing to set up; in many cases it still involves faxes . If bitcoin succeeds only as a payment network, where users convert from and to do…

International transfers are not intrinsically difficult or expensive, the real cost is in pennies. The reason why cross border payments are priced like they are is due to the lack of incentive, either economic or regulatory. BTC is a massive economic incentive for banks to charge more in line with the their true costs. Even if BTC fails as a currency itself, its greatest success might be catalysing innovation on pric…

Well, there's a lot of paperwork and time involved. Most U.S. banks raised their international wire fees to ~$60 at the end of October to comply with more regulations.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#56

Post by gnaritas »

johnrob wrote: post #29

Why should anyone feel compelled to follow or invest in bitcoin? The time to buy bitcoins is when you need them to get something you want (as it should be for any currency).

> Why should anyone feel compelled to follow or invest in bitcoin?

To make money speculating of course. :)

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#57

Post by nayefc »

ljd wrote: post #49
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

A central authority needs to control money supply. This is crucial in all advanced economies. It has to be capped somehow (currently, it's obviously exploited), but a decentralised currency will never work.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#58

Post by sanderjd »

ljd wrote: post #49
notdrunkatall wrote: post #13

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

Different strokes for different folks. I think its decentralized nature is its least valuable aspect. If the only thing it accomplished were smoother and cheaper internet, small business, and interpersonal commerce, it would be incredibly valuable. The novelty of it (which I think has a lot to do with its decentralization) is currently causing too much volatility to make it useful for actually buying and selling things. A more boring government-backed (or -regulated) variant would be more useful and extremely valuable.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#59

Post by alaskamiller »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #48
nkuttler wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope those 11k aren't all your savings. I have coins, am bullish long term, but buying bitcoin is speculation, and bitcoin can fall back to $0.01, even if I don't think it's likely.

It is indeed all my savings. But I was saving it anyway, so I won't be out in a doghouse if it vanishes. I guess I'm dumb, but at this stage in my life I'd rather have 9.89BTC than $11k. My theory is, everyone's expecting it to crash. So therefore it's more likely to do the opposite. Not much of a theory, but it seems to have been historically true.

I spent all my savings back in 2011 on bitcoins. I get what you mean. Good luck.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#60

Post by gnaritas »

emin-gun-sirer wrote: post #4

The post assumes that Bitcoins will fail if they are not suitable as a store of value. It overlooks the fact that a currency can succeed as a medium of exchange, even if it is not suitable as a store of value.

Being a good store of value is in fact a detriment to being a good medium of exchange. A currency should not be a good store of value, it should be a predictable store of value that inflates very slowly so as to discourage hoarding and encourage spending. PPC looks like a better currency than BTC for this very reason.
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