Live data from Hacker News

Why to Not Not Start a Startup

paulgraham.com

51–60 of 142 posts

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#51

"It's exciting to think we may be on the cusp of another shift like the one from farming to manufacturing." The biggest reason why startups are so much more feasible now than ever before is because of the plummeting costs of production. Whereas twenty years ago it would have taken millions of dollars to do a startup, today a college kid with a powerbook can do one in his dorm room. Every year the tools of production…

It's a little discouraging, after considering PG's idea that we may be on the cusp of another production revolution, to consider some of the ideas that you put forward here. I do think, however, that you are right in saying that it is very hard to rebut the idea that you present.

I don't really think, though, that what you present are the precise beliefs of Kaczynski. In your comment, you seem to have the idea that decreasing costs of production (which is largely due to improvements in technology) is a good thing, while the decrease in freedom is the thing that is bad. It seems to me that anarcho-primitivists actually believe that technology itself is the bad thing, because it departs from the pure, hierarchy-less society of hunter-gatherers.

It is truly an interesting endeavor to consider where the boundary exists between what is good about where we are headed and what is bad. I think that all of us accept the idea that those who have greater drive and motivation to succeed should be rewarded for their efforts, and it's also hard to deny PG's contention that people now are living more luxurious lifestyles than kings of yesterday (heated houses year 'round). We may also argue that if people are content with their station in life (i.e. doing nothing to change it), then what is the problem?

On the other hand, I think that nearly all of us would agree that a situation like that in the Matrix would be a bad thing; even though the people believe they are living well, it is all a facade. Additionally, we are perfectly okay with improving the lives of friends and family members who have been less driven than we, presumably because we love them.

I guess if you consider the implications of that train of thought, if we loved humanity, we would be perfectly fine with sharing everything equally, regardless of the amount of work the individual does, and we thereby arrive back where we started, with hunter-gatherer cultures that have gift societies. We can even see evidence of this model working in the open source movement today.

I'm not really trying to make any points here, I'm just pointing out some interesting questions that your post (and my readings on Kaczynski) brought up in my mind which made me question what I had previously considered to be unquestionable truths. Perhaps it's not necessary for the entrepreneur's reward to be directly proportional to the amount of wealth the he or she has created, especially considering that with the current state of social stratification, opportunity is certainly not equal.

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#53
post #39

Hypothesis: "I'd rather work on hard AI problems at Google than create a startup and bitch about how Safari is not rendering my site properly." What do you think? I haven't tried either, but working on cool problems ought to be worth something. Most startup work seems rather mundane.

Other posters show an inability to engage in a sufficient level of abstraction. Original post is an interesting question that has nothing to do with AI, Google, or Safari.

The point is that at a startup (especially the two guys and a laptop variety) you do absolutely everything yourself, while at a big company you are supported by IT, QA, custodial services, etc, etc.

The interesting question is whether there exist jobs for which that support is worth the money and freedom one gives up working at the large company.

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#54
I wonder how large a factor student debt is when people consider the one or the other. A guaranteed liability can be a powerful motivator for finding guaranteed income.

(Although if you think that a job at a big company is guaranteed income, you've never worked at a big company going through any kind of hard times!)

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#55

"It's exciting to think we may be on the cusp of another shift like the one from farming to manufacturing." The biggest reason why startups are so much more feasible now than ever before is because of the plummeting costs of production. Whereas twenty years ago it would have taken millions of dollars to do a startup, today a college kid with a powerbook can do one in his dorm room. Every year the tools of production…

It's a little discouraging, after considering PG's idea that we may be on the cusp of another production revolution, to consider some of the ideas that you put forward here. I do think, however, that you are right in saying that it is very hard to rebut the idea that you present. I don't really think, though, that what you present are the precise beliefs of Kaczynski. In your comment, you seem to have the idea that d…

From the Unabomber Manifesto:

"technology exacerbates the effects of crowding because it puts increased disruptive powers in people's hands. For example, a variety of noise-making devices: power mowers, radios, motorcycles, etc. If the use of these devices is unrestricted, people who want peace and quiet are frustrated by the noise. If their use is restricted, people who use the devices are frustrated by the regulations... But if these machines had never been invented there would have been no conflict and no frustration generated by them."

"It is a chronic complaint of small-business persons and entrepreneurs that their hands are tied by excessive government regulation. Some of these regulations are doubtless unnecessary, but for the most part government regulations are essential and inevitable parts of our extremely complex society."

I take it that what he is saying is that technology creates social complexity, both good and bad, which then inevitably leads to the loss of liberty. I know Bill Joy, who co-founded Sun, wrote a good article in Wired a while back about reconciling Kaczynski's ideas with Kurzweil's.

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a little discouraging, after considering PG's idea that we may be on the cusp of another production revolution, to consider some of the ideas that you put forward here. I do think, however, that you are right in saying that it is very hard to rebut the idea that you present. I don't really think, though, that what you present are the precise beliefs of Kaczynski. In your comment, you seem to have the idea that d…

From the Unabomber Manifesto: "technology exacerbates the effects of crowding because it puts increased disruptive powers in people's hands. For example, a variety of noise-making devices: power mowers, radios, motorcycles, etc. If the use of these devices is unrestricted, people who want peace and quiet are frustrated by the noise. If their use is restricted, people who use the devices are frustrated by the regulati…

"But if these machines had never been invented there would have been no conflict and no frustration generated by them."

That is the quote that stands out to me, and what it tells me is that he believes technology itself to be the bad thing, because it breeds the conflict and resulting regulations.

Regardless of this minor issue, I think that we are both thinking along the same lines.

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#58
post #25

I'm still doubtful about the "Revenue is not important" thing. Maybe right now you can get acquired with no revenues, but that probably won't last. People said revenue didn't matter during the Web 1.0 IPO bubble, and that turned out wrong. To be convinced otherwise I'd have to see the accounting for these web deals showing a return on investment. And if the profits are predicated on web advertising call me skeptical…

There is a distinction between "revenue is not important" and "if lots of users love you, you can probably figure out how to make money out of it (if you arn't acquired first)".

I think another difference is that there are companies absorbing the risk and associated losses. As was noted in another one of Paul's essays, big companies tend to be good at extracting revenue from an existing product but not so good on boldness and innovation.

There are a variety of business models to try once you've made something people want. Sometimes it is ads (myspace) sometimes it is merchandise (homestarrunner) or a combination of the two (penny-arcade). Maybe your content is worth a subscription (hotornot). Maybe you sell books or offer training and advanced services (SysInternals/Winternals).

Another argument for not worrying about the business model, if it is your intent to be acquired, is that your product may wind up more flexible. 3 different companies might use 3 different ways to make money from your product. Again, the distinction is that it's already profitable companies doing the buying, rather than the Stock Market At Large.

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#59
post #31

I'm only partly covered by this list. It's true that I don't really have an immediately viable potential cofounder, but it's also true that if I had one, I still don't think I would start a startup in the near future. My main problem is that I'm most interested in machine learning and robotics, and neither of those seem particularly friendly to starting a startup. (Alexa doesn't run on robots, so I can't bypass the n…

Grad school is more friendly only in the sense that you are not constrained to make things that people want.

Are you kidding me? You have to make things the people on your thesis committee want. There's only 4 of them, but you have to have 100% satisfaction.

Re: Why to Not Not Start a Startup

#60
post #59
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grad school is more friendly only in the sense that you are not constrained to make things that people want.

Are you kidding me? You have to make things the people on your thesis committee want. There's only 4 of them, but you have to have 100% satisfaction.

That may be true, but you can work for 5+ years at a problem, fully supported by your university, without having to worry about pleasing anyone in the short term. There is no need to worry about releases or fickle customers. And in the end, success is virtually guaranteed. So I would have to agree that grad school is more "friendly" than starting a startup, where you have to start worrying about the viability of your work within a few months (at least in the YC model).
Post reply on HN