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The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

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Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#51

Post by mullingitover »

nickff wrote: post #36
mullingitover wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This whole trade war with Canada has to be one of the dumbest fucking things I have ever witnessed, and that's saying a lot given the complete incompetence and buffoonery of the current US administration. You'd think that, strategically, a decapitation strike is the worst thing that could happen for a nation. However, that would be incorrect: the worst thing that could happen is this, a vain and incompetent buffoon…

> "the worst thing that could happen is this, a vain and incompetent buffoon installed in the top leadership position." Well, Canada repeatedly elected Justin Trudeau (now departed)... so both countries have made some... interesting decisions...

I don't recall Justin Trudeau making leadership decisions so diabolical and incompetent that Serious People were forced to ask if he was a foreign agent.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#52

Post by declan_roberts »

Canada is very unfortunately caught in the trade war between the USA and China. It's pretty easy right now for certain goods to bypass the US tariffs by being transshipped through Canada and enter the USA without tariff because of minimal processing. Chinese steel is a notable example of this.

And a lot of Canada's trade MOUs with other countries basically requires they have this special privilege. So there's gonna be fallout everywhere.

I wouldn't personally want to own Canadian dollars right now but I think they'll get this figured out.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#53

Post by Mamut3 »

There's much more than tariffs at stake. The fight here is about influence but the way Trump is handling his push to regain American influence in the Western Hemisphere is pushing several allied countries even further away — including some that have been allies for more than two centuries.

This strategy is going to fail and when it does countries will trade much more one with others currencies and less with USA and USD. When that happens the American house of cards will collapse because it will no longer be possible to print trillions of dollars and count on other countries to absorb them trusting in the American policies and agreements.

The printing dollars formula facing low single-digit inflation is coming to an end.

U all can downvote me like on the credit-card thread but this is the reality for those outside the big American walls.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#54

Post by NoidFonsense »

sobellian wrote: post #49

Imagine you want to build a factory in the US. You pay tariffs on the factory equipment you need - much of it is made overseas. You pay tariffs on your input goods. And then when you try to export your customers get hit with a retaliatory tariff. I don't agree with tariffs but even if we accept some level of protectionism you can't tariff everything the way this administration wants. You have to pick what you actuall…

I totally disagree. The same factory would be made infeasible without the tariff.

What do we need that shouldn't make domesticially?

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#56

Post by xutopia »

whatsThisBtn4 wrote: post #46

I'm afraid to comment because HN shadow bans when discussing international relations. The wild part is that I'm quite academic, Waltz, Mearsheimer, Morgenthau are on my wall. Okay let's get flagged for saying the uncomfortable silent part(chatGPT joke)... Canada suffers more than the United States.

How do figure Canada will suffer more?

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#57

Post by bryanlarsen »

kevin_nisbet wrote: post #34
bryanlarsen wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America's trade imbalance with Canada is basically crude oil. Which they get at a significant discount because it's much more expensive to export anywhere else. America then refines it and exports it as finished product or uses it internally -- one of the reasons why America has relatively cheap gasoline prices. This "trade imbalance" is a massive benefit to America.

I've seen this point in a few different places and I don't know that it's understood as widely as it should be. So just to expand on why that's the case. As a net producer of energy right now, the US produces more than it consumes. This is why it get's pointed out, that as a net producer, the trade deficit with Canada is also a surplus (or reduction in deficit) on the other side with other countries. Yes it may not b…

Another poster pointed out that Trump is complaining about the trade deficit at the same time he's trying to increase that trade deficit by building the Keystone XL pipeline....

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#58

Post by ericmay »

llm_nerd wrote: post #48
ericmay wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It isn't semantics when $0 in tariffs were applied. > There have been $0 in tariffs on US dairy. The tariffs only come into play when the US imports pass a certain volume So how do tariffs come in to play if there are no tariffs applied? > You clearly are. > you know, the trade deal that your hero You're welcome to read my entire comment history. You will find I routinely have said Donald Trump belongs in jail. You…

> So how do tariffs come in to play if there are no tariffs applied? What is the duty you pay on duty free goods? Is this a serious question? Canada negotiated in a quota of dairy products the US could export to Canada tariff free. If the US exceeds this quota, there are tariffs. If it doesn't, there are none. It has never even come close to hitting the quota, much less exceeding it, and the total tariffs ever paid o…

> Canada negotiated in a quota of dairy products the US could export to Canada tariff free. If the US exceeds this quota, there are tariffs. If it doesn't, there are none. It has never even come close to hitting the quota, much less exceeding it, and the total tariffs ever paid on this has been $0.

So you wouldn't take issue with an America quota on assembled motor vehicles, for example, since that wouldn't be a tariff? Maybe that automaker moves most of its facilities back to the US and now yea you've got one factory making 10,000 cars/year or something and that's under the quota, but you were effectively tariffed anyway because to maintain facilities would breach the quota that was set. Were you outright tariffed? No. Were you effectively tariffed? Absolutely.

That's why this argument you are putting forth is just semantics. It's not tariffs on duty free goods (except when it is). It's not tariffs on imported products (except when it is). There aren't any restrictions, except when there are. Nobody is moving facilities until they do.

Other countries do the same thing to protect their domestic industries, I'm not singling Canada out here, but I do take issue with the lack of honesty where folks pretend that we had these free trade schemes without any barriers right up until Trump got elected again. It's simply untrue.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#59

Post by sobellian »

NoidFonsense wrote: post #54
sobellian wrote: post #49

Imagine you want to build a factory in the US. You pay tariffs on the factory equipment you need - much of it is made overseas. You pay tariffs on your input goods. And then when you try to export your customers get hit with a retaliatory tariff. I don't agree with tariffs but even if we accept some level of protectionism you can't tariff everything the way this administration wants. You have to pick what you actuall…

I totally disagree. The same factory would be made infeasible without the tariff. What do we need that shouldn't make domesticially?

I'm telling you as a fact that as someone working for a manufacturing startup the tariffs have only made things more expensive for us. But I'm sure the Cleveland Cliffs execs are doing great.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#60

Post by phoronixrly »

dom96 wrote: post #55

I don't really understand why these tariffs are taken seriously. Haven't basically all previous tariffs been cancelled and refunded?

Did the cancelled/refunded tarrifs have serious consequences of US customers?
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