U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123% • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#51

Post by thenewnewguy » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM UTC

ModernMech wrote: post #28

notfromhere wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that half the political system thinks you can cut taxes and grow revenues. Which is an intentional strategy to repeal social programs that they’d never get the votes to do so via legislation

Right they (the politicians) don't actually think that, they just say that to get cooked projections. Once those revenue projections turn out to be false, it doesn't matter because they already have their tax cuts baked in. Then everyone can blame the other side for deficits and campaign on fixing it. Rinse and repeat.

Let's be clear and not do this both sides thing - by "they" we mean Republicans. You may not agree with their policies or what they want to spend money on, but Democrats (at least in aggregate) live in the real world where they acknowledge for the government to spend money they will have to raise taxes.

Republicans are the only party that in the 21st century acts as though we can simultaneously cut taxes and increase spending and everything will be fine.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#52

Post by rawgabbit » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM UTC

sampton wrote: post #21

I wonder what the exit plan is. One time conversion of social security into Trump accounts and call it a day?

An executive order declaring a newly created legal entity is now the holder of all previous debt. The new entity has no assets or revenues, other than Trumpcoin.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#53

Post by hnx0rqy49u » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC

[dead]

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#54

Post by liuliu » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC

notfromhere wrote: post #17

Aboutplants wrote: post #8

[flagged]

No they wouldn’t. A balanced budget would be incredibly unpopular with everyone as you’d have to raise taxes and cut spending.

Well, it is a "platform of Balancing Budget", you don't need to actually work on that or do anything. The harder part is just letting people believing in miracles. Look no further than the current administration. Lying has no consequences so far.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#55

Post by stldev » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC

sumanthvepa wrote: post #22

Not an American, but I would argue that this level while little bit of a concern is not a huge issue for a superpower that borrows in its own currency and has the military and economic might to crush any party (sovereign or corporate) attempting move away from that system. You guys are too powerful.

Reserve status is based on confidence. The US can't bomb markets into trusting the dollar. They've already begun diversifying away from it.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#56

Post by elteto » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:17 PM UTC

bilsbie wrote: post #48

notfromhere wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that half the political system thinks you can cut taxes and grow revenues. Which is an intentional strategy to repeal social programs that they’d never get the votes to do so via legislation

[flagged]

You made a tiny mistake, you forgot the $800 billion for the military!

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#57

Post by _trampeltier » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:17 PM UTC

adolph wrote: post #16

On the bright side it isn't growing and is down from the pandemic-era 132% of GDP. (Although maybe that was because GDP shrank rather than any change in fundamental debt.)

The GDP was a little smaler during Covid. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP/

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#58

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:18 PM UTC

joinjune wrote: post #7

juujian wrote: post #3

Upsetting how we are reaching these lows while the administration is accusing everyone else of wasting taxpayer money except for themselves. At least under previous administrations you would get something for your money, like science funding and healthcare for the needy, not just bombing runs and posturing.

Both can be true. The previous administration bailed out the unfunded pension funds of cities and state employees when they did Covid-19 bailouts despite it having nothing to do with Covid-19 and without requiring these local governments to properly fund these pensions moving forward. They bailed these pension programs out many times more than their financial support for restaurants they forced closed. Basically, Ame…

Bailing out workers is okay. They are, by definition, the people who have done the work. Bailing out the wealthy, or tax cuts for them is not. Unless you are very wealthy, you are a worker, and unless you experience a lottery winning type event, will never be very wealthy.

> Basically, America has an economy that is buoyed by AI development and infrastructure spending right now but is poised to pop and the national debt has been ballooned by two to three generations of political leadership failing to properly address underlying issues and instead printing money.

Maybe we shouldn't have spent five decades giving the wealthy tax break after tax break while hollowing out the middle class and suppressing wages with union busting and globalization. Productivity is up ~90% over this time frame, and most of the gains have gone to the top 1%. But here we are. The bill has come due for strip mining the country economically, and taxes will go up to pay down this debt (because only the top ~40% of income earners have enough income to have a federal tax liability). We will fix this eventually through demographic compression (economic growth comes, broadly speaking, from population growth and the US has reached peak population; forward growth will be substantially lower than the past when the population was growing rapidly), politics, and the bond market forcing the US government to raise taxes (“bond vigilantes”).

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#59

Post by drnick1 » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:18 PM UTC

somenameforme wrote: post #25

deadbabe wrote: post #5

This still isn’t too bad compared to other countries, also, most of the AI industry profits are still yet to be fully realized.

I think you're being sarcastic, but can't quite tell. If you're not - this is the 10th worst ratio in the world. The only countries worse are: Venezuela, Japan, Sudan, Singapore, Eritrea, Bahrain, Greece, Lebanon, and Italy. The difference has historically been that we've been able to exploit the dollar, export our inflation, and so on - but those times are fading.

No, those times are not fading. We are constantly opening up new revenue streams, like Venezuela, and maybe soon Iran too.

Re: U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%

#60

Post by Taikonerd » Fri, Jul 31, 2026, 4:18 PM UTC

sumanthvepa wrote: post #22

Not an American, but I would argue that this level while little bit of a concern is not a huge issue for a superpower that borrows in its own currency and has the military and economic might to crush any party (sovereign or corporate) attempting move away from that system. You guys are too powerful.

Maybe so, but our weakness is that we depend on new debt to finance our government spending. If investors stopped buying that debt, the US government would have to make sudden, dramatic spending cuts.

And that's not a problem that's solvable with military might! "Investors around the world are declining to buy US government bonds" can't be bombed the way an oil refinery can be.