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German Peasants' War

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51–57 of 57 posts

Re: German Peasants' War

#51
post #14
post #11

Not a historian nor economist, but to my layman's mind, these revolts seem like a recurring phenomenon whenever long running economic cycles reach that point at which the aristocracy overreaches while trying to suppressing growing public sentiment against them, not unlike in Polybius' anacyclosis . But unlike Polybius' cycles, as technology improves, the likelihood of a successful reset at the end of a cycle, gradual…

Something else is going to happen this time, or really is happening already: people vote with their feet and stop having children. On one hand wealth is being pooled into a smaller number of people, on the other it's becoming difficult to have anyone invested in working harder - and for good reason, as there's little payoff in that.

> Something else is going to happen this time, or really is happening already: people vote with their feet and stop having children.

And then the elite says, well lets import excess population from the third world. An idea unthinkable in the past, but now we are modern and not racist.

Re: German Peasants' War

#52
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something else is going to happen this time, or really is happening already: people vote with their feet and stop having children. On one hand wealth is being pooled into a smaller number of people, on the other it's becoming difficult to have anyone invested in working harder - and for good reason, as there's little payoff in that.

When all labor is automated, is it a problem for the elites if people stop having children?

Is that a realistic scenario anytime soon?

The highest estimate of jobs long term removed by automation that I've seen is around 200 million.

The current labour shortage just in China is already around half of that.

Layoffs in tech notwithstanding, we're still in a period of labour shortages and increased efforts at automation are a reaction to it.

Re: German Peasants' War

#53
post #43
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something else is going to happen this time, or really is happening already: people vote with their feet and stop having children. On one hand wealth is being pooled into a smaller number of people, on the other it's becoming difficult to have anyone invested in working harder - and for good reason, as there's little payoff in that.

As theories go, that one makes little sense. At no point in human history has living in miserable conditions caused people to stop having children. And the evidence seems quite suggestive that people stop having children as their material conditions improve. There isn't really a final word on the topic I'm aware of, but it looks like all the options available are out-competing having children rather than that people…

> At no point in human history has living in miserable conditions caused people to stop having children.

That's mostly because for most of history, they didn't have much control over it.

Contraception and basic sexual education changed all that, as evidenced by the sharp decrease in teen pregnancies.

> People aren't generally willing to have kids if it means abandoning their efforts to achieve the most comfortable modern lifestyle that they can.

That's a minority opinion.

Around 12% of the (US) population actually pursues this, in their view, comfortable lifestyle. The rest consistently indicates either same or a larger number of desired children than they have:

https://populationconnection.org/blog/survey-americans-want-...

Re: German Peasants' War

#54
post #14
post #11

Not a historian nor economist, but to my layman's mind, these revolts seem like a recurring phenomenon whenever long running economic cycles reach that point at which the aristocracy overreaches while trying to suppressing growing public sentiment against them, not unlike in Polybius' anacyclosis . But unlike Polybius' cycles, as technology improves, the likelihood of a successful reset at the end of a cycle, gradual…

Something else is going to happen this time, or really is happening already: people vote with their feet and stop having children. On one hand wealth is being pooled into a smaller number of people, on the other it's becoming difficult to have anyone invested in working harder - and for good reason, as there's little payoff in that.

Sure, most of the developed world is facing a demographic crisis. But will it trigger a meaningful reset of wealth distribution? Or be ineffective like the peasants revolt...

The core question seems to be whether the economic systems and fiat currencies can survive the next century. Population decline and a shrinking economy should go hand in hand... but planning contractions does not seem to be priority...

Re: German Peasants' War

#55
post #53
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As theories go, that one makes little sense. At no point in human history has living in miserable conditions caused people to stop having children. And the evidence seems quite suggestive that people stop having children as their material conditions improve. There isn't really a final word on the topic I'm aware of, but it looks like all the options available are out-competing having children rather than that people…

> At no point in human history has living in miserable conditions caused people to stop having children. That's mostly because for most of history, they didn't have much control over it. Contraception and basic sexual education changed all that, as evidenced by the sharp decrease in teen pregnancies. > People aren't generally willing to have kids if it means abandoning their efforts to achieve the most comfortable mo…

> Around 12% of the (US) population actually pursues this, in their view, comfortable lifestyle. The rest consistently indicates either same or a larger number of desired children than they have:

This is basic economic revealed preferences. These people have all achieved the best living standard (and for the least effort) of anyone in the history of their genetic lineage measuring from before humans were a species.

They may say they want more children, but they are not willing to compromise away any of their comforts to actually have more children. Nothing is stopping them except their own preferences. Literally all their ancestors managed to have children in much worse conditions.

Re: German Peasants' War

#56
post #9
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same for the Hussites in Bohemia (although a bit earlier, but pretty similar). With Jan Žižka they also had arguably one of the best commanders in history, up there with Alexander and Hanibal

there are many places in Austria called "Tabor", there might be a connection to the Taborite movement

tábor is also Czech for "camp" (probably the same in Polish/Slovak, but originally from Turkic I think).

Whether the town or term came first...

Re: German Peasants' War

#57
Does anyone have examples of peasants' revolts that were effective? (excl. the 20th century Communist revolutions) Each one I heard about was suppressed by the aristocracy.
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