Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965) [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965) [pdf]

#51

Post by nullsanity » Sun, Jul 12, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC

Nevermark wrote: post #7

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #3

> Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. That's a pretty early definition of what we now call ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence). In the next paragraph the author goes to describe what we today call the "singularity" (ASI designing better ASI). But that term seems to be associated to some very weird communities, so the c…

>> It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.” > Well, that didn't happen. Predictions are not false because their claims are not in the past yet. That bar would make all predictions wrong. The faster things happen, the higher the speed-of-progres…

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Re: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965) [pdf]

#52

Post by 27183 » Sun, Jul 12, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC

bsenftner wrote: post #14

dwoldrich wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, that didn't happen. The military had stealth aircraft in the 70's. I'll bet they had LLM or better in the 80's and the tech we have now is the consumer-grade version they seeded into industry in the 2020's.

I had research lab exposure to what the US military had in the 80's, the groups I saw were hyper focused on 3D visualizations in support of in-the-field strategy. Think wireframes superimposed over a live camera feed, with those wireframes being the horizon line and what are the items beyond their current range of view. A building wall is simply a wireframe, and the floors and every type of sensor they could get to f…

That brings me back to this wireframe tank combat game we used to play on the LAN in middle school. I think it was called Spectre.

Re: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965) [pdf]

#53

Post by 27183 » Sun, Jul 12, 2026, 3:52 AM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #29

dwoldrich wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you so certain you know what tech existed in the 80's? NASA used Commodore 64's as part of the constellation of computers needed to launch the space shuttle. That whole program was pretty hokey. That silliness doesn't preclude some radically advanced compute tech from existing elsewhere at the same time. Of course something like that would be ultra secret and you and I wouldn't be told about it. You have to b…

I just try to keep an open mind to these sorts of things. An open mind doesn't mean "a mind full of open circuits." Why are you so certain you know what tech existed in the 80's? Useful LLMs could not have been built without deep-UV semiconductor fabrication at scale, which in turn can't exist without a massive, complex supply chain that envelops the globe like a spiderweb. Such technology could not have been built s…

“Keeping an open mind is a virtue—but, as the space engineer James Oberg once said, not so open that your brains fall out.” ― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

Re: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965) [pdf]

#54

Post by Timwi » Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 7:55 AM UTC

usefulcat wrote: post #38

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #3

> Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. That's a pretty early definition of what we now call ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence). In the next paragraph the author goes to describe what we today call the "singularity" (ASI designing better ASI). But that term seems to be associated to some very weird communities, so the c…

> It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.” It’s not uncommon to find these kinds of predictions from the twentieth century, which of course with hindsight can seem wildly optimistic. But I think there are understandable reasons for that optimis…

> When I compare what I’ve seen in my life so far, I don’t think anything comes close (for better and worse) to even one of those things.

I dunno, I personally consider the internetification of the world to be on a level with the developments you've listed. We've transitioned a lot of things away from the real world into cyberspace: banking, shopping, postal communication... and now even recent technologies such as radio and TV are being replaced by it. I don't know how old you are, but I've lived through that and it has been quite a ride — for better and worse, as you say.

Nevertheless, I agree that little has changed since. Maybe this puts you at < 20 years of age? I don't want to be presumptuous.

Re: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine (1965) [pdf]

#55

Post by usefulcat » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 8:03 PM UTC

Timwi wrote: post #54

usefulcat wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.” It’s not uncommon to find these kinds of predictions from the twentieth century, which of course with hindsight can seem wildly optimistic. But I think there are understandable reasons for that optimis…

> When I compare what I’ve seen in my life so far, I don’t think anything comes close (for better and worse) to even one of those things. I dunno, I personally consider the internetification of the world to be on a level with the developments you've listed. We've transitioned a lot of things away from the real world into cyberspace: banking, shopping, postal communication... and now even recent technologies such as r…

No, I'm much older than that. I was in college in the early 90s when the internet first became known to the general public. I guess I just don't consider internetification to be that impressive. I mean, sure, it's nice that I can pay for things electronically and Amazon is very convenient, but compared to being able to fly? Or travel to the moon? Or split the atom? To say nothing of the many, many millions who were directly affected by two world wars.

As for the replacement of radio and TV, I think that's one of the least impressive aspects. Broadcasting via the internet enables on-demand consumption. Which is nice, but hardly revolutionary compared to the ability to broadcast audio and video at all, which we had already been doing for many decades. There's also the fact that it's easier for individuals to publish/broadcast, which I suspect is more impactful.

However there is one major exception related to my opinion of the impact of the internet. The huge number of 'information sources' that exist today (previously these would have been called news sources) means that it's pretty trivial for every person to listen to only those sources that cater to their existing preferences. Which is exactly what nearly everyone does. IMO this has had a huge impact on driving political polarization, which is in turn having a very large negative impact on governance and society as a whole. At least in the US, people were far less politically divided when there were fewer sources of news, probably because there was less disagreement on basic facts.