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EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

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Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#51

Post by Taniwha »

Exoristos wrote: post #20
whatever1 wrote: post #12

Wasn’t the same concern with the Toyota Prius when it was first released? Only for all the doubters to be proven wrong by the taxi drivers who kept beating Priuses for decades. In any case battery failure seems rare but it still is catastrophic and nobody can afford replacement. Hence companies should just provide some sort of warranty / insurance product for the few unlucky folks. Seems like an ideal candidate.

Those old taxi Priuses have had their batteries replaced.

The original Prius batteries can easily have individual cells replaced (mine is 20 years old, we've replaced 2 cells) - of course Toyota want to sell you an entire battery, the wrecker will sell you a whole bunch of spares

(do this with care, an entire pack is hundreds of volts)

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#52

Post by ralferoo »

memoriyato3 wrote: post #39
PaulKeeble wrote: post #5

No manufacturer is testing the batteries life by just charging and discharging them daily for a decade before releasing them. Instead they are using artificial acceleration techniques like getting the battery hot while charging/discharging continuously to simulate a longer lifetime. They can't realistically do anything else to estimate it. But it turns out heat is the big enemy for li-ion batteries and if you can kee…

we have EVs for almost 15 years now, one would imagine some real world data on battery life was collected already, even if not widely shared

There was and publicly available, although the mainstream press mostly chose to ignore it.

My VW hybrid is just over 10 years. The advertising claimed 28 miles on a charge, but the reality was about 18 maximum, with stop-start somewhat less. After a couple of months when it had calibrated, it settled displaying 21 miles for a full charge. 10 years on, and it still reads 21 miles on a full charge, but the reading is less useful in use. It's common for it to drop from 21 to 15 miles after a mile, but to stay on 1 mile remaining for around 4 miles travelled. But essentially, I don't consider the range to have deteriorated too significantly, it still feels around the same ballpark.

A lot of the original thinking about batteries comes from the Nissan Leaf, introduced in 2009, when they guessed that batteries would probably need replacing after 10 years. However, from the cars that were written off from accidents, they discovered much less battery wear than predicted, and around the time I bought my car, they were suggesting batteries would be around 80% after 10 years and most manufacturers started using that figure. I'm not sure what current estimates are, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 90% after 10 years.

It's common knowledge amongst owners that range is significantly reduced in cold weather - I'd guess from my use, maybe 20% less range on a cold winter day compared to summer.

And as to why car batteries last so much longer than e.g. phone batteries, I think it's mostly because their charging limits are much more pessimistic. Typically a car charger won't ever charge beyond 90% capacity or discharge below 10%, and this is built into its estimated range (so 0 miles remaining is 10% charge).

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#53

Post by ralferoo »

brikym wrote: post #50
rolfus wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had much of the same skepticism and anti-EV propaganda here in Norway a decade ago, when EV's started becoming popular. The usual claims was that the batteries would have to be replaced every five years, the cars would stop working in the winters, the batteries are fire hazards, the power grid won't support everyone buying EV's, etc.. All of which turned out to not be true. Today the market share for EV's is 98% a…

98% of NEW EVs. But the total market share of the fleet is about 1/3. Impressive. If EV share is 90% in a decade I wonder if Norway will see fuel stations being torn down.

I'd imagine trucks would still be diesel, so it'd probably make sense just to remove some of the pumps and replace them with rapid chargers. I doubt the fuel stations themselves will disappear, just cater to a different market.

OTOH in the UK at least, I think public charging is way too expensive compared to home charging, so I think most public charging is done out of necessity on long journeys, so the number of people using chargers would probably be significantly lower than number of people filling up with fuel.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#54

Post by Theodores »

raychis wrote: post #31

EV batteries may be lasting far longer than most buyers expected but are consumers really going to trust the data over the headlines? There has been such a propaganda attack on EVs that it will take a long time to overcome that.

Although I have had rechargeable batteries in gadgets for decades, I would not like to have an EV parked in a garage beneath my bedroom, juicing up with many kilowatts, every night.

No amount of fire exits would help, I mean, what about my stuff?!?

No amount of insurance would cover personal belongings that could get lost, so that means stress from the stupid EV.

The technology might be generally proven (the EV could be a Toyota Prius variant) but the current iteration could be another Note 7, there is no knowing for sure.

I assure you it is not propaganda or TikTok that makes me wary of EV batteries, or any grudge, it is just that I have a different set of circumstances to the guy with a separate garage for housing an EV a safe distance away.

It took an extra decade for hospitals to allow mobile phones on their premises, they just had a different risk assessment. It wasn't propaganda that made them enforce such a ban.

Hence, although it is tempting to blame 'enemy propaganda', there is a whole spectrum of risk assessment, based on different people and different circumstances, so it will take a while, with battery chemistry essentially static for a decade before some get won over.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#55

Post by Smoosh »

brikym wrote: post #50
rolfus wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had much of the same skepticism and anti-EV propaganda here in Norway a decade ago, when EV's started becoming popular. The usual claims was that the batteries would have to be replaced every five years, the cars would stop working in the winters, the batteries are fire hazards, the power grid won't support everyone buying EV's, etc.. All of which turned out to not be true. Today the market share for EV's is 98% a…

98% of NEW EVs. But the total market share of the fleet is about 1/3. Impressive. If EV share is 90% in a decade I wonder if Norway will see fuel stations being torn down.

According to YouTuber Bjorn Nyland, some such as Circle-K had already installed charging stations and are now removing some pumps and replacing them with chargers while adding even more charging stalls.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#56

Post by oliwarner »

jwr wrote: post #37
raychis wrote: post #31

EV batteries may be lasting far longer than most buyers expected but are consumers really going to trust the data over the headlines? There has been such a propaganda attack on EVs that it will take a long time to overcome that.

The black PR has been very effective. I own an EV and the first question I always get from non-EV people when they find out is "…but what about the range, isn't that a problem?", while the second one is invariably "but what about the battery, I heard it only lasts a year or two and it's so expensive to replace!". The myths are now strong and it will indeed take a long time to dispel them.

I mean, we have an EV and you do have to think about range if you're going over 100mi away and time is tight (eg you have young children, appointments, etc)

When I can throw 100mi into my car in 5 minutes without having to do backflips to get the charger to start, or drive out of my way to specific chargers, and not pay 20 times the market electricity rate... Then people will stop worrying about it.

I do think we'll get there with new EVs (800V platforms look amazing), but it's not going to be retroactive. There are lots of EVs in used circulation where range will be a conscious consideration for another decade or two.

The early generation Nissan Leafs (no battery cooling) did most of the work to tar EVs longevity. It's not propaganda. They were shit.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#57

Post by disentanglement »

ralferoo wrote: post #53
brikym wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

98% of NEW EVs. But the total market share of the fleet is about 1/3. Impressive. If EV share is 90% in a decade I wonder if Norway will see fuel stations being torn down.

I'd imagine trucks would still be diesel, so it'd probably make sense just to remove some of the pumps and replace them with rapid chargers. I doubt the fuel stations themselves will disappear, just cater to a different market. OTOH in the UK at least, I think public charging is way too expensive compared to home charging, so I think most public charging is done out of necessity on long journeys, so the number of peo…

Electric semi trucks have appeared from all major European manufacturers in the last years and I expect them to become dominant even quicker than electric cars on simple cost grounds. Electricity is cheaper than diesel and due to favorable regulations in Europe, for many use cases there is little to no time lost charging and usually also no loss in load capacity.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#58

Post by memoriyato3 »

ralferoo wrote: post #52
memoriyato3 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we have EVs for almost 15 years now, one would imagine some real world data on battery life was collected already, even if not widely shared

There was and publicly available, although the mainstream press mostly chose to ignore it. My VW hybrid is just over 10 years. The advertising claimed 28 miles on a charge, but the reality was about 18 maximum, with stop-start somewhat less. After a couple of months when it had calibrated, it settled displaying 21 miles for a full charge. 10 years on, and it still reads 21 miles on a full charge, but the reading is l…

I have enabled "charge up to maximum 80%" setting on my phone from day 1, and 2 years later the battery lasts noticeably less. maybe it would have been even worse without that setting.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#59

Post by jml78 »

oliwarner wrote: post #56
jwr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The black PR has been very effective. I own an EV and the first question I always get from non-EV people when they find out is "…but what about the range, isn't that a problem?", while the second one is invariably "but what about the battery, I heard it only lasts a year or two and it's so expensive to replace!". The myths are now strong and it will indeed take a long time to dispel them.

I mean, we have an EV and you do have to think about range if you're going over 100mi away and time is tight (eg you have young children, appointments, etc) When I can throw 100mi into my car in 5 minutes without having to do backflips to get the charger to start, or drive out of my way to specific chargers, and not pay 20 times the market electricity rate... Then people will stop worrying about it. I do think we'll…

I am confused by your comment. Any EV with a 250+ mile range and your scenario is moot. You just go.

Had an EV since 2018, range is never a concern.

My only concern is that traditional American car manufacturers still suck at making EVs.

Re: EV Batteries Are Defying Expectations After Miles

#60

Post by everfrustrated »

memoriyato3 wrote: post #38
jwr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The black PR has been very effective. I own an EV and the first question I always get from non-EV people when they find out is "…but what about the range, isn't that a problem?", while the second one is invariably "but what about the battery, I heard it only lasts a year or two and it's so expensive to replace!". The myths are now strong and it will indeed take a long time to dispel them.

the propaganda works because we are all familiar with the smartphone battery degradation after 2 years, so it seems logical that same thing will happen with car batteries

This is very true. There's also a habit where people are reluctant to get their vehicles batteries low as well. Folks seem reluctant to get below 20%. I think it comes from learned behavior from smartphones.

I will happily arrive at a supercharger with 1%.

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