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It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

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Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#53

Although it's not the most important thing here, I love the IQ badge on the right side of the screen. At IQ 200, the AI is finally qualified to carry a pager for production. I'm in the pagerduty lineup, and shockingly, my IQ isn't even a mere 185.

But yours is human IQ, theirs is Artificial IQ.

It's like human to dog years ;-)

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#54
As my company experiments with AI-heavy programming, I don’t feel like my job’s going away, but as a “full stack” programmer who’s also good at and comfortable managing a task board, walking “stakeholders” and SMEs through requirements-gathering, et c., I am increasingly wondering why our “teams” still have a couple non-programmers doing that stuff. Dedicated QA, for that matter—all that test-writing and test-data-generating and stuff is so fast now. It’d speed things up if one or two programmers just did the whole thing.

But maybe my particular skill set where all those roles were only really out of reach for me for time-constraint reasons is less common than I think… I dunno, though, between people who’d moved up into managing projects but can drive an LLM pretty competently for programming (ex programmers) and versatile can-talk-to-people seasoned programmers, it’s all the other roles that look increasingly like they’re slowing productivity, rather than increasing it, now.

Someone on a call the other day tentatively brought up that they were noticing it was taking longer to get all the paperwork right for a bug fix or even mid-sized feature than it was to actually write and test the fix, by the time they looped in some variety of person in a jira-wrangler role. It’s clear those jira-wranglers are gonna have to fight to keep their jobs (I don’t really know how they’re gonna do it, I feel apprehensive on their behalf in every meeting now)

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#55
post #46
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair I think we'd be able to claim AGI is here if that problem is solved. At this point the models are so smart they're borderline super intelligent if they were cognizant of hallucinations and their own shortcomings. If GPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8 could tell you "I don't know" they'd certainly be "smarter" than any individual human. Some specialists might be better in niche domains, but I don't know of any humans who…

Your condition is called AI psychosis. Good news is: it's curable!

Care to elaborate? What is AI psychosis? How am I exhibiting it? I thought hacker news was the last place free of mindless dunking on the internet, I guess I was wrong. If you'd like to engage in a debate on the original topic of this thread I'd be more than happy to, but if you want to dunk, twitter is over at x.com now.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#56
I hate to say it as I think the author is well intentioned but I think this is every bit as silly as the perspectives it is shooting down

1. this is prone to taking the fringe perspectives and making them "everyone" 2. most of the points are highly highly interpretive (growth could be pressure, laziness, FOMO, self deception, real valid growth.. we don't know yet)

LLMs are definitely the most transformative thing I have seen in 25 years in tech, but I still think like every other hype cycle there is a lot of lying and self delusion, I don't really think any of us, neither myself nor the author really know what we have here.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#58

You should add a parallel timeline of how many times AI CEOs have claimed their next model is too dangerous to release, AGI is months away, or some white collar job will be obsolete within 6 months. I don’t know anyone in the tech industry who thinks AGI will never happen or that software engineering and white collar jobs can’t be automated. We all read sci fi, you’re not some unique visionary for anticipating AI. Th…

But the author acknowledged times that someone said something stupid about AI?

He's not claiming there's no flaws or that there aren't CEOs claiming more than is possible right now. He's making the point that these don't negate the parts that are genuinely impressive.

I've encountered waaaay too many "you can't possibly have done that with AI because AI occasionally hallucinates" and "CEOs say things for marketing therefore AI can't really do anything" type of posts.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#59

You should add a parallel timeline of how many times AI CEOs have claimed their next model is too dangerous to release, AGI is months away, or some white collar job will be obsolete within 6 months. I don’t know anyone in the tech industry who thinks AGI will never happen or that software engineering and white collar jobs can’t be automated. We all read sci fi, you’re not some unique visionary for anticipating AI. Th…

Yeah reading this timeline wasn't satisfying to me for exactly this reason: It didn't give the counterarguments that were being made at the time of each "goalpost".

My (probably flawed, but still) memory is that the first one of these threads I participated in, at the end of 2022, was saying that none of us would have jobs after two more years of development of these models. Two years from then was almost two years ago now, and we're still "a year or two" out.

On the flip side, the thesis that these will be useful tools that will augment the work of software developers when understood and used for the things they are good at has (IMO) remained undefeated during this entire period.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#60
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Understandably, the frustration is also around "what happens then?" Everyone is wondering about what happens if (when?) it finally comes true We really have to figure out what comes next for your average person. I think the reason no one wants to talk about this is because the answers aren't great. The average person not going to be living a great life in all likelihood, once we have no access to capital anymore

If we don't have access to capital, we will abolish capital altogether. This still backfire to the oligarchs

Are you sure the capital-enabled won't abolish us for trying to do so?
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