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Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

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Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#51

Post by joloooo »

hackeraccount wrote: post #43
joloooo wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a very narrow band of sun-synchronous orbit with consistent enough sunlight to make orbital data centers viable. Even with a tight constellation of 500,000 to 1,000,000 satellites packed into that band, it still doesn't make economic sense compared to what terrestrial data centers can do. At 500,000 satellites you're looking at maybe 50 GW of solar power. Then factor in the lifespan of LEO at ~5 years you're…

decade+ is not really that long, is it? Say you're correct in that time frame. If you put money in now to a venture that seems uncertain then in 5 years it's going to seem much less uncertain - and so the investment will be worth that much more. I think there's an oft repeated view that markets only look to the next quarter. That's not really true. Markets (or people) are willing to go in on long term investments as…

You're right on that perspective. I should clarify. I mean decades+ when compute and power begins to realistically make sense where we can start planning such a long term strategy. I personally think our cislunar / moonbase efforts are a better effort to put energy and resources into.

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#52

Post by dialogbox »

fnord77 wrote: post #10

I think everyone misses the real point - they're completely outside the jurisdiction of any government. Short of launching an ASAT and the risk of space debris, nobody will be able to shut them down.

> nobody will be able to shut them down.

ASAT can completely destroy it very easily. Then isn't that everyone who can send orbital object can shut them down?

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#54

Post by NishanStepak »

NishanStepak wrote: post #2

The advantage is solar power in space. They will never stop getting sunlight.

There is a 150 KW Solar Array on Space X's first Data Center In Space It was launched in June of 2026. Technology improves at a steady pace. Space solar power is new and will improve over time because it is not a mature technology. Also, in space solar power is continuous and receives more energy than on the ground. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/article/spacex-...

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#55

Post by xnx »

toss1 wrote: post #31
aeternum wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing Elon's companies have a history of moving engineering impossibilities from impossible to slightly late. Remember when globally competitive electric cars, re-usable boosters, catching a rocket with chopsticks, playing a fps game via a brain implant, and maintaining a satellite constellation at 480km LEO were also impossible?

I used to make similar arguments. But I also now look at actual results, and they are not merely late, they are far less than promised. Globally competitive EV? Not against the Chinese competitors (Hint: it's why he plans to merge Tesla into SpaceX). Self-driving so good cars would be assets you could run your own self-driving Uber-like service (and customers paid a $10K upcharge for the ticket to do it next year)? N…

This is a very good summary.

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#56

Post by xnx »

throw310822 wrote: post #28

Rather than reasoning on the feasibility of data centers in space, what are the constraints that prevent them from being built on Earth? What's the minimum cost of building and operating in the US the equivalent of a 1M satellites data center?

The last straw their grasping at is "regulations" are to unfavorable on the ground so space makes sense. People repeat this as though there weren't still a dozen better options than space.

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#57

Post by fnord77 »

advisedwang wrote: post #39
fnord77 wrote: post #10

I think everyone misses the real point - they're completely outside the jurisdiction of any government. Short of launching an ASAT and the risk of space debris, nobody will be able to shut them down.

What are they going to do in these orbiting datacenters that would be getting them shut down on earth?

crypto scams, selling CSAM

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#59

Post by rbanffy »

chuckadams wrote: post #48
throw310822 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The police will just arrest you and/ or anyone who operates the downlinks or connects to you. The server can stay in space.

"Encouraging" the uplink operator into backdooring the system is also very likely a page in the playbook.

If the user is sophisticated, and has full control over the onboard hardware, this might be difficult. I am sure the satellites that will be built and marketed for this specific use case will be hardened against interference by any third parties.

And, since they are under no real jurisdiction once in orbit, enforcement would be impractical.

Re: Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

#60

Post by root-parent »

aeternum wrote: post #23
CuriouslyC wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between "infeasible given materials and manufacturing capabilities of the time" and "infeasible as a scalable solution due to the laws of physics"

What law of physics do orbital data centers violate? You must have learned some strange physics.

>> What law of physics do orbital data centers violate?

None. That is why they are...in practice... an engineering impossibility :-)

Nobody is disputing you can have a 1kW of compute in orbit...you have that in the space station. But that is a matchbox....

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