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Thoughts on AI and Jobs

blog.keyvan.net

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Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#51

Post by skeledrew »

Driver4732 wrote: post #23

There's so much wrong with this post. Yes, LLMs are useful when used ethically. But when it's controlled by greedy and corrupt people, it's going to be used as a weapon to further widen the class divide between the wealthy and poor. The main reason why it has received so much investment is because greedy CEOs dream of AI as being the ultimate people replacer. All of them are short-sighted individuals only concerned w…

> If no one has a job due to AI who will buy their products and services?

I'd say this is the ultimate sticking point. No more buying/selling since nobody has money, no more money flowing in the economy, etc which kills it. Move to an economic model that actually fits humans not needing a job to survive.

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#52

Post by skeledrew »

alkyon wrote: post #26

This blog post offers no new insights. Let's imagine that half of the jobs or more are lost. It would create a shock for the economy as a whole, incomparable with anything that happened before. It's a snake eating its own tail paradox. It means massive bankruptcies across all sectors and some governments defaulting on their debts. We can forget about UBI in these circumstances. Yes, OpenAI and Anthropic will pay more…

Nothing wrong with uprooting a dysfunctional economic system.

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#53

Post by k1m »

pyrale wrote: post #47
k1m wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that, and that's what I was trying to get at with the post. That an AI future which can take away jobs, doesn't have to be a bad one if the paycheck is replaced with something else. The Rutger Bergman piece I linked to argues for Universal Basic Income. Many people assume jobs are the only way.

What I was getting at, is that people argue about jobs rather than about money, is that society values work, not paying "bums". They may be more or less self-conscious about it. If you offer to pay them for not working, they are likely going to be suspicious, and for good reason: for all of their lives, and for all of society's life, paying people for existing has been, essentially, frowned upon. And that's the issue…

On your first point, I agree with you that it's a deeply held belief. But that doesn't make it reasonable. That's why I think it's worth the effort trying to question it, especially at a time when there's so much discussion and fear around job loss.

Regarding UBI, I've also read a lot of different opinions on it, and all the ways it can be implemented to do more harm than good. My own view is that the only reason we even see it proposed from the very wealthy is that they're looking ahead at the direction all this is heading and see it as inevitable (to stave off riots and mass protests that could affect their wealth more than UBI would), so they want their version of UBI to be the one that wins out. That doesn't make UBI as a concept a bad idea, it just means it's going to be a struggle to get a version of it that actually lets us live a decent life. But to even get to that point in the discussion, we have to win more people over to the idea that not having a job isn't such a bad thing, and doesn't say anything about your worth as a human being.

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#54

Post by k1m »

_fw wrote: post #6

I’d love for AI to take my job and free me from the burdensome toil of creating shareholder value. Not sure it will feed my kids, put a roof over my head and look after me as I age and my body fails me though. As mentioned below, it’s easy to feel safe and secure when one has the means, independent of their livelihood.

My post focused more on trying to question why we value jobs so much, beyond the paychecks they offer. I didn't get into alternatives, but Universal Basic Income (UBI) is what you'll see discussed most often as an alternative. I'm certainly not arguing for taking away people's paychecks and then letting them fend for themselves with nothing to replace it.

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#55

Post by k1m »

markovblanket wrote: post #17

"new roles might emerge where AI is no good" - doesn't this imply that the AI is simply dumb, which leads to contradiction that it is in fact artificial intelligence? nobody will use artificial dumbness, except on X to satire, i suspect...

I'm not in the camp that believes AI is actually going to reach human intelligence. So yes, AI is simply dumb. But many people overlook the fact that many of our jobs today require exactly that level of dumbness. So saying AI is dumb doesn't say much about whether it can replace a lot of jobs or not.

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#56

Post by k1m »

strangescript wrote: post #16

The fundamental flaw in all these style arguments against core employment is people's personal desire to have a straight forward path for survival that doesn't involve a lot of strategic thought. Its hard for highly intelligent people to understand that others simply DGAF. They just want their paycheck and they don't want to think about it deeply. Thought leaders have existed since the dawn of human history. There we…

> The fundamental flaw in all these style arguments against core employment is people's personal desire to have a straight forward path for survival that doesn't involve a lot of strategic thought.

One of the most popular alternatives proposed is Universal Basic Income, where you just get a sum of money periodically. That's more straight forward for survival than holding down a job, and worrying about layoffs.

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#57

Post by k1m »

DrewADesign wrote: post #20
_fw wrote: post #6

I’d love for AI to take my job and free me from the burdensome toil of creating shareholder value. Not sure it will feed my kids, put a roof over my head and look after me as I age and my body fails me though. As mentioned below, it’s easy to feel safe and secure when one has the means, independent of their livelihood.

I think many people in tech have existed in a high-demand labor market for so long that they have no idea how much less other job markets reward people for their intelligence, work ethic, knowledge, education, etc. From the very inception of these LLM coding tools, some people predicted this would destroy the dev job market, and others said ‘maybe it will replace other software developers but there’s no way it could…

> I think many people in tech have existed in a high-demand labor market for so long that they have no idea how much less other job markets reward people for their intelligence, work ethic, knowledge, education, etc.

Absolutely! It's fascinating that when I discuss the job issue, and how undemocratic and soul-crushing it is for many people, there's this huge chasm between what most workers experience in their jobs, and that small, vocal group of highly paid, in-demand workers, who enjoy a lot of freedom and who've never experienced the other side.

> From the very inception of these LLM coding tools, some people predicted this would destroy the dev job market, and others said ‘maybe it will replace other software developers but there’s no way it could replace me,’ seemingly assuming their role would remain largely unchanged, regardless of how the field changed.

It's fascinating to watch, and it prickles people's egos. If the thing I spent a lot of time learning to do well, and which gave me status and a high salary, can be done easily by a machine, does that mean I'm not special? I saw this tweet from a very experienced developer, Dax Raad, that captures a part of it well I think[1]:

> i used to say programming was creative work

> except LLMs are fine at programming and are literal 0s for more obviously creative work

> i think we mistook enumerating a lot of possibilities and picking one for being creative

[1] https://x.com/thdxr/status/2064705679298896105

Re: Thoughts on AI and Jobs

#58

Post by N_Lens »

phyzix5761 wrote: post #18

There's meaning in the pain. I retired last year and for the first six months I felt lost and empty inside, like there was no meaning or purpose to my life. It wasn't until I started doing volunteer work that I found meaning again but for a while it was rough. I don't know if its an evolutionary side effect but humans need structure and goals in life which work provides.

I know several people who really enjoyed/are enjoying their retirements without feeling this inner emptiness and feeling of being lost. I think you're generalizing to all humans from your individual experience when it is not the general rule.
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