I still don’t see what the advantage is. Of course it’s physically possible to build a datacenter in space, but I can’t imagine land prices being that high that the same data center on earth wouldn’t be cheaper. Even just due to launch costs and the more sophisticated equipment needed for space.
The real issue is that the power situation in LEO is still actually terrible! Your solar is a little more performant, but you're plunged into hard shade every 45 minutes.
Cooling in Space
51–60 of 101 posts
Re: Cooling in Space
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we can't rule out the explanation that all the ideas of space data centers could be connected to a desire by some of finding additional applications for rockets that can transport stuff to space.
I think we can't rule out the explanation that all the ideas of space data centers could have been connected solely to a desire to pump SpaceX's IPO.
That said, SpaceX aren't the only entity proposing ODCs, they're just the only ones promising they're going to make country-sized profits out of them...
Re: Cooling in Space
#53Allow me to propose a modest alternative to space data centers, namely mountaintop data centers. This would consist of a container full of servers and GPUs and what else goes into a data center, a wind turbine for power and a communication module (say laser or microwave) for communicating with a base station with a fiber connection. This would be lifted on top of a mountain by a helicopter and bolted in place. Coolin…
A better idea is to put them on Mars, so people actually think before they send a stupid question.
Re: Cooling in Space
#54 # EARTH IS FULL
It sounds ridiculous but the ability to build AI datacenters on Earth is nearly exhausted. The options are:• USA, Australia. The electricity infrastructure has already bottlenecked and some datacenters like Colossus are being forced to build their own power plants, but that's also bottlenecked on gas turbine capacity. Hacks like recycling jet turbines only squeeze a bit more out. Terrestrial solar can't be used to escape this problem because you need the clusters to run at night too.
• Europe. Deindustrialized, EU Commission is anti AI, very expensive power, grid also bottlenecked. Forget it.
• Middle East. Had some datacenters until they got blown up by Iran.
• China. Got power but bottlenecked by trade sanctions. Might well do a big buildout when Ascend starts to be competitive, but Chinese demand is likely to absorb it.
• Latin America, Africa, south-east Asia, etc: bottlenecked by political stability, not pro-business enough, etc.
In space you don't need gas turbines because solar can be 24/7, political risks aren't there, you aren't bottlenecked by grid capacity. Even if it costs more to put stuff in space that doesn't matter if space is the only place you can put stuff.
# INFERENCE NOT TRAINING
Trying to do backpropagation in space would be a bad idea. You need extreme locality in a single physical location for networking reasons. But a lot of modern AI load including training load is just inference, which only requires small pods not entire clusters, and bandwidth needs in/out aren't that high. Inferencing can fit on a satellite.Space radiation isn't necessarily a problem. Bit flips can be tolerate to quite a high degree for inferencing because models can recover from corruptions in the activation stream or even some bad tokens.
# COOLING
As the article lays out this isn't necessarily the problem people are assuming. Also there are candidate designs from decades ago for ferrofluid droplet radiators. These might be overkill but can in theory radiate huge amounts of heat without needing to launch big radiators. # COST
Unlike terrestrial data centers which are always bespoke projects, inferencing satellites can be mass manufactured. SpaceX and Elon in general are good at setting up mass production lines, and it seems apparent that SpaceX has no intention of throwing very high margin Nvidia hardware into orbit. The plan is to use Tesla's AI chips i.e. SpaceX could acquire accelerators at cost. This changes the cost calculations quite a bit. Although these accelerators might not be useful for training or research, most training workloads would stay on Earth so that doesn't matter (the inferencing loads moved into space would free up terrestrial hardware for training anyway).The real wild card is if there's enough demand for a 'good enough' model that it's predicted to last the lifetime of the satellite. In that case the weights could be fabbed directly into the chips like Taalas does, and so the energy consumption would be far lower.
# BUSINESS CASE
It's possible that datacenter construction goes the same way as nuclear and becomes impossibly expensive here on Earth. If so then SpaceX can end up with a near monopoly on new inferencing capacity, making them the gateway to AI and the new Nvidia.What's especially confounding is that the mere existence of orbital inferencing might actually create that outcome, because politicians would find it much easier to squash datacenter / power projects to please activists if there is a genuine alternative!
Note: I'm not invested in SpaceX.
Re: Cooling in Space
#55I still don’t see what the advantage is. Of course it’s physically possible to build a datacenter in space, but I can’t imagine land prices being that high that the same data center on earth wouldn’t be cheaper. Even just due to launch costs and the more sophisticated equipment needed for space.
I doubt it'll make sense any time soon, but some arguments I can think of are that solar in space can easily be ~50% more efficient at any moment while also being continuous (enough) in the right orbit. An even more radical idea is to put nuclear in space which would sidestep all the earthly hurdles (beyond the launch).
> An even more radical idea is to put nuclear in space which would sidestep all the earthly hurdles (beyond the launch).
That makes even less sense to me. Why would you launch then and not just stay on the ground? Do you think a country would allow you to launch a rocket with a nuclear reactor from their land but the reactor is so unsafe that you’re not allowed to operate it on the ground?
Then I would just say put it on a boat and park it in international waters, that’s surely cheaper than orbit, right?
Re: Cooling in Space
#56Allow me to propose a modest alternative to space data centers, namely mountaintop data centers. This would consist of a container full of servers and GPUs and what else goes into a data center, a wind turbine for power and a communication module (say laser or microwave) for communicating with a base station with a fiber connection. This would be lifted on top of a mountain by a helicopter and bolted in place. Coolin…
What advantage does a mountaintop have versus a more accessible earth-based location? I suspect one of the motivations for space datacenters is to try to stay out of the reach of all jurisdictions so you Musk can start to run his companies as an autonomous state.
Re: Cooling in Space
#57Space data centers are physically possible but don't make financial sense. The total cost of an orbital datacenter over five years is at least 2–3x that of a terrestrial one. But those economics don't matter to SpaceX, because the main purpose of its orbital data centers is to create a use case for Starship. Starship has to fly frequently to iron out the kinks, encounter and fix rare (1/1000) failure situations, and…
it sort of makes sense, if the need for that compute is in space and not terrestrial. In my mind its the same sort of thing as mining in space. it makes no sense to mine ores in space for delivery to earth (unless its something exotic that you cant get on earth). Mining in space is best used for manufacturing in space (and furthering building in space)... then the cost benefit ratio suddenly flips hard in the "worth…
Re: Cooling in Space
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Based on very specific assumptions: “…the world in which AI demand is so overwhelming as to exceed the already formidable datacenter capacity additions” — but also this same world is one where GPU chip supply is abundant, there just isn’t enough data centers to put them in. This does not seem like the likeliest scenario to me.
Agreed, how could we not have datacenter capacity for the GPUs when Meta has shown that you can go from a bare field to an operational datacenter in about 3 months by using tents instead of buildings?
Re: Cooling in Space
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
What about the rough weather and difficulty of maintenance, especially in rough weather?
Maintenance for a mountaintop data center only requires a team of skilled mountaineers. In space you'd need astronauts. It's at least an order of magnitude cheaper, perhaps two or three.
Re: Cooling in Space
#60I still don’t see what the advantage is. Of course it’s physically possible to build a datacenter in space, but I can’t imagine land prices being that high that the same data center on earth wouldn’t be cheaper. Even just due to launch costs and the more sophisticated equipment needed for space.
I doubt it'll make sense any time soon, but some arguments I can think of are that solar in space can easily be ~50% more efficient at any moment while also being continuous (enough) in the right orbit. An even more radical idea is to put nuclear in space which would sidestep all the earthly hurdles (beyond the launch).