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Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

businessinsider.com

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Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#51

Post by hparadiz »

tlakshgf wrote: post #48
hparadiz wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic is the one company where that makes no sense. If revenue really is about 50 billion annually and growing than that means that a 20x 1 year of revenue valuation is modest compared to the shenanigans that have been going in the market. It's almost classically textbook conservative in comparison. The moat with these corporate enterprise contracts is literally your conversation history and companies aren't like…

What does revenue have to do with it? Mercedes has a revenue of $130 billion, profit of $5 billion and a market cap of $56 billion. According to your logic, it should have a market cap of $2.6 trillion. Conservative is to look at P/E, which is 10 for Mercedes. Anthropic isn't even a growth stock, since it has already been force fed to everyone with one of the largest marketing and coercion campaigns in history.

I've had economics professors tell me that a "normal" business valuation is 10 years of profit so your example is in line with my thinking there. I'm just as curious to see the final numbers as you but if they are even approaching them it's not very out there to consider a high valuation. I don't wish to speculate on what the numbers actually are. I want to see them too.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#52

Post by epolanski »

hparadiz wrote: post #38
epolanski wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All competitors need are their latest model to be either better or similar but much cheaper. And Anthropic has no less than 2 big competitors in the space in US alone providing similar quality models. There's no moat in LLMs when you're as good as your latest model. Companies out there aren't in the business of throwing money down the drain. Take DS4, you can use Deepseek APIs directly with Claude Code, and you're un…

You forget the institutional inertia of how these things get negotiated from year to year. If something is working for people they tend to wanna keep it. The existing curation of how everything works is cheaper than rolling your own. Sure you can get something running yourself but integrations for a lot of people are worth some of this cost. Also for AI heavy customers (multimedia, video, etc) the sky is the limit an…

That logic works for 20 vs 40$ SaaS subscriptions, not for burning triple/four digits per day in APIs.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#53

Post by saidnooneever »

wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #46

So the company that actually makes computers programming computers work, ain't worth $1T. Whoever you are Michael Burry, you don't know shit about the implications, and where this is headed, and that the party only just got started. I sure do wish I had a big chunk of that overpriced Google IPO stock, and Amazon, and MS, and Apple, etc etc etc

makes computers work. makes computer programming work.

please go back to school

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#54

Post by schonfinkel »

LightBug1 wrote: post #50

Literally adjusting my pension funds and ETA's away from this ... I don't even care if I lose out. I want stable growth. Not a nation obsessed with memestocks.

Are you trying to be sane and rational in a market that has turned into a casino? U crazy or something?

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#55

Post by fireflash38 »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #27
pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.

People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances.

There are no fundamentals.

There is very low signal to the noise.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#56

Post by bumby »

pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

Can you elaborate on how passive investing contributes to this?

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#57

Post by bumby »

fireflash38 wrote: post #55
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.

People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances. There are no fundamentals. There is very low signal to the noise.

>People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances.

Isn’t this the exact same sentiment from the late 1920s when people were making “insane, life changing” money by buying equities on margin?

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#58

Post by enraged_camel »

l23k4 wrote: post #49
pjmlp wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such as?

Do you live in a cave? I guess not. Do you have access to the internet? Seemingly yes. The booms just tend to be much bigger than the busts.

The internet absolutely went bust. That’s what the dotcom crash was.

Same with a lot of physical infrastructure. The UK has a robust railroad network today, but it was built during a bubble that was so insane people would take loans from banks to invest in railroad stocks.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#59

Post by spwa4 »

This is what they're actually talking about:

https://michaeljburry.substack.com/

And the counterpoint is that META, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT are all betting their companies that AI is the next move. Just yesterday, GOOG lent another $80 billion to be invested in their AI hardware, and they're also investing their own stock in AI hardware, for a cumulative investment of already over $1 trillion. Clearly the tech sector thinks this is worth it.

And of course the people deciding in FANG companies actually have numbers, Michael Burry has the same numbers you have. So these investments are "worth it" according to people with inside information. What Burry is doing, in one perspective, is calling out the leadership of FANG companies. Now that's the job of a short-seller of course. But that's the bet being made.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#60

Post by axegon_ »

wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #46

So the company that actually makes computers programming computers work, ain't worth $1T. Whoever you are Michael Burry, you don't know shit about the implications, and where this is headed, and that the party only just got started. I sure do wish I had a big chunk of that overpriced Google IPO stock, and Amazon, and MS, and Apple, etc etc etc

> the company that actually makes computers programming computers work

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

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