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Internet traffic in Iran increasing

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Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#51

Post by hypeatei »

NordStreamYacht wrote: post #42
nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Unlikely. They thought a dose of shock and awe would get people out on the streets for a rapid regime change and it didn't work.

I don't think U.S. intelligence thought any part of this war was a good idea or justified. There were two National Intelligence Estimates (a panel of all 18 agencies in the IC) that concluded Iran was not developing nuclear weapons.

There has also been reporting that a top general in the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump about starting a conflict with Iran[0]. The only party that believes, or wants others to believe that Iran is a huge threat, is Israel.

0: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-c...

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#52

Post by aaron695 »

zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

[dead]

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#53

Post by epistasis »

whatever1 wrote: post #45
zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

I really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.

If Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons it would not have been attacked, but there was never any risk of Russia using nuclear weapons.

This is just one of many many ways that people in the west fundamentally misunderstand Russia, and why so many people made fools of themselves thinking that Putin would not invade. The other really big one is that Russia never admitted that it lost the Cold War and thinks the war is still going on, and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor, not a result of their own mismanagement, the weakness of their people, and the general corruption.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#54

Post by t-3 »

bluegatty wrote: post #37
dakolli wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

"Don't fall for the trap where the US and Israel paints Iran as some authoritarian censor. The US is far more authoritarian" This is total delusion, honestly, it's why people in these systems will remain trapped for a long time. America has many problems but when people in places like Iran start on this bandwagon, it's evidence of inability to just weigh reality in the face of emotional rhetoric. Nobody is suggesting…

> Iran has a ruthlessly oppressive regime, not even comparable to that of the US.

Not comparable in domestic affairs... in foreign affairs the situation is reversed. US is by far the most violent, untrustworthy, and oppressive in the world, while Iran looks pretty peaceful and harmless in comparison.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#55

Post by rayiner »

epistasis wrote: post #53
whatever1 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.

If Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons it would not have been attacked, but there was never any risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. This is just one of many many ways that people in the west fundamentally misunderstand Russia, and why so many people made fools of themselves thinking that Putin would not invade. The other really big one is that Russia never admitted that it lost the Cold War and thinks the war is s…

> and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor

Why is Russia so backwards and poor? Russia and Iran are two countries that seem to way underperform their fundamentals.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#56

Post by t-3 »

dnautics wrote: post #40
jmyeet wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering. Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They…

> The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. It's not clear to me that the "world" will come down on Iran's side on this one. On the one hand you have a country that is perpetrating a violation of international norms by establishing a toll on the straight of hormuz…

> ho hum, everyone does this

No, just US, Israel, and Russia.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#57

Post by p-e-w »

rayiner wrote: post #55
epistasis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons it would not have been attacked, but there was never any risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. This is just one of many many ways that people in the west fundamentally misunderstand Russia, and why so many people made fools of themselves thinking that Putin would not invade. The other really big one is that Russia never admitted that it lost the Cold War and thinks the war is s…

> and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor Why is Russia so backwards and poor? Russia and Iran are two countries that seem to way underperform their fundamentals.

Brain drain at an unimaginable scale, which is a self-reinforcing mechanism because once it starts, governments will usually impose restrictions to try to stop it, which makes everyone else want to leave too.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#58

Post by drnick1 »

stn8188 wrote: post #28
myth_drannon wrote: post #21

Why is the bot traffic in Iran is so high -75%? I checked Argentina - 16%, Netherlands - 65%.

Oh come to think of it, I had some attempted logins to some home-hosted infrastructure from Iran last week...

You should really filter third world IP ranges. Removes a lot of of the unwanted log noise.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#59

Post by jmyeet »

dnautics wrote: post #40
jmyeet wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering. Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They…

> The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. It's not clear to me that the "world" will come down on Iran's side on this one. On the one hand you have a country that is perpetrating a violation of international norms by establishing a toll on the straight of hormuz…

The world already has come down on Iran's side. It's pretty much the US and Israel (and maybe the UAE) against the world. Trump has bemoaned the lack of international support. Use of bases and airpsace have been spotty. And this is only going to get worse once winter hits in Europe and people start seeing their electricity and heating bills. Asia (minus China and Japan) are the most vulnerable because they're almost entirely dependent on Gulf oil that has stopped. And they blame the US for it. Iran has allowed traffic through the Strait to countries that aren't aiding the war effort. It's now the US that is blocking it.

Americans as a whole don't understand the history of the region or know about all the sins the US has committed against Iran over a century, including being responsible for the current regime, overthrowing their democratically elected government in 1953 and stole their oil. They also propped up the Iran-Iraq war and destabilized Afghanistan to flood Iran with heroin.

There was a perfectly good deal with Iran called the JCPOA but Trump tore it out because it had Obama's name on it and Israel hated it. Everything that has happened since is Trump's (and Biden's) fault.

Iran is defending itself against an unprovoked attack by the biggest bully on the planet. The tolls are e complex issue because the navigable lanes through the Strait of Hormuz go through, in part, Iranian territorial waters. There were no tolls. The us started an unprovoked war, caused countless deaths, blew up a school through of girls and assassinated a bunch of leaders. So the tolls are viewed by many as, well, reparations. Iran never closed the Strait or enforced a toll prior to this war.

Iran also acted in good faith last year after yet another unprovoked attack (ie the 12 day war) that was ultimately called off because the US and Israel were losing the ability to intercept Iranian missiles. Why? Critically depelted munitions. And what did the US do? turned around and made another unprovoked, surprise attack rather than negotiating. Because Israel told them to.

So Iran has been forced into the position that they need to make the economic damage of this so high that the US and Israel never think about doing this again. And if you can't see why they might do that, consider what the US did after 9/11.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#60

Post by drnick1 »

the_af wrote: post #46
twothreeone wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's not even clear what the true motivation is from the US side.. "get the Uranium out" by itself doesn't make sense, because (a) they can just enrich again (or even be supplied directly by Russia/NK) and (b) even if they build nukes they'll never be able to reach US territory. If they wanted to destabilize the regime, they would have needed to actively push an alternative group or leader. If they wanted to pr…

Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here. Everybody understands Iran wasn't a threat to the US that warranted immediate action. Mostly everyone understands the aftermath of this war looks to be worse than the previous situation.

> Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here.

The strategy is clear: out Iran as a paper tiger (accomplished last year), disarm the mullahs by sinking their boats and destroying the few aircrafts they had left, and humiliate the regime so that an uprising becomes more likely. Same strategy that has already realigned Syria and Venezuela with U.S. interests, and that will soon take Cuba too.

I don't think that anything should be negotiated at this stage. Return to combat operations, destroy Iran's ability to threaten traffic through the Strait, escort the ships that are currently trapped in the Gulf, and maintain the blockade on Iranian ports.

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