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How Not to Die

paulgraham.com

51–60 of 154 posts

Re: How Not to Die

#51
post #15
post #5

>> We've done this five times now, and we've seen a bunch of startups die. About 10 of them so far. So, not counting this batch (19), 10 out of 39 [1] startups died so far. So, the survival rate is 72%. Not bad! I know that some more YC companies might die at some point in the future, but the numbers so far seem impressive. [1] The following article quotes 58 companies funded in all: http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_n…

I don't think 72% is particularly good (I think it should be higher). I'm not sure you realise just how scary the thought of failing in front of so many hard-working people is...

"I'm not sure you realise just how scary the thought of failing in front of so many hard-working people is..."

Failure has a different meaning in Silicon Valley (kind of). There have been a couple of quiet fizzle outs from WFP that I'm sure of, and I've spoken to two of the guys from those fizzle outs since then...one is working on new ideas, and another has moved to another company (perhaps the most flexible of the bunch, in that they changed their entire business model and started from scratch during the program) from the same program that raised some money and he's happy and enthusiastic. While there is a bit of averting of the gaze when I asked how things were going, the fact that they were there at a YC event and talking about new things tells me they will probably go on to great things.

It's the folks who went back home, went back to consulting or school, who aren't going to be among the winners in the end. Which comes back to pg's assertion that just by staying in touch and staying involved you could very well guarantee success...I'm not sure if it's the cause or the effect, but I do think the folks who've stuck around and keep coming to the events and keep in touch with other YC'ers will probably do well.

Re: How Not to Die

#52

I will say it plainly: This is the most influential, well written essay I have ever read. It hit a chord very deep with me..

I hate to always be the jerk on this board, but: 1) How can a just-now-released essay be influential at all? 2) At least half of pg's essays are better written than this, which to me seemed a little phoned-in. It's not really an essay anyway, but a peptalk. He didn't even have the usual cavalcade of proofreaders at the bottom. 3) The most influential essay I've ever read is the first essay of "Genealogy of Morals".

I've read all of his essays too, but I guess for me in particular this one strikes a chord because:

1) I just resigned from my day job this week to pursue startup ambitions and

2) I am definitely having "oh shit what am I doing" thoughts right now.

So given the timing for me, this kind of inspiration is very moving. As far as how it is written, I would argue that the phoned-in and impulsive nature is what makes this essay so elegant. It is clean and concise, stating the idea simply: dont give up. Anyway, this is all one mans opinion so you are certainly entitled to disagree.

Re: How Not to Die

#53
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would definitely read (and even buy) Founders at Rest; in Founders at Work, you get a bunch of stuff about what successful founders do, but you don't know which stuff is necessary and which stuff is coincidental. You need a bunch of negative data points to make a really correct assessment about necessary and sufficient conditions for startup success.

That's one of the points in 'The Black Swan'. People concentrate way too much on success stories without looking at the failure stories.

"People concentrate way too much on success stories without looking at the failure stories."

By what definition of "too much"? I see nothing wrong with focusing on studying the best--the ones that made it. Those are the people to emulate. Why spend your limited time studying the ones that failed? Sure, learning from mistakes is great. But I suspect I'm going to weather the storm better if I learn about mistakes from people who made it through to the other side--rather than from people who blew it and ended up bankrupt. I really don't think I'd like to be facing a problem and thinking, "Oh, wait, I read about this...it turned out horribly...we're dead!" Much better to think, "Well, Evan Williams had exactly this problem with Blogger. And look how that turned out! Just gotta keep plugging away."

Just a thought. I don't really think we need a lot of post-mortems while we're in the early stages. Maybe later when we have a huge success on our hands and want to know how to avoid becoming the next SGI (Google uses SGI internally to mean, "company that has huge success and then made huge mistakes", because Google has actually moved into nearly all of the old SGI buildings in Mountain View as SGI has atrophied into a shell of itself--seeing how business and management heavy Google has become in the past year makes me think they didn't think hard enough about SGI...).

Re: How Not to Die

#54
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life is about compromise. I don't think most startup founders with families are looking at the same picture of success as those right out of college.

That explains the low success rate.

If you're defining success as rich enough to be written about in Newsweek, yes.

Re: How Not to Die

#55

I will say it plainly: This is the most influential, well written essay I have ever read. It hit a chord very deep with me..

I hate to always be the jerk on this board, but: 1) How can a just-now-released essay be influential at all? 2) At least half of pg's essays are better written than this, which to me seemed a little phoned-in. It's not really an essay anyway, but a peptalk. He didn't even have the usual cavalcade of proofreaders at the bottom. 3) The most influential essay I've ever read is the first essay of "Genealogy of Morals".

"Hang in there. Stay plugged in. Oh, and in case you didn't get it the first time, don't give up."

The most influential, well-written paragraph I've ever read!

Re: How Not to Die

#56
post #14

It's kind of depressing to not have any real startup peer group in Pittsburgh. News.yc is serving as a kind of substitute, for me. I'm really looking forward to when we get to turn our startup's shopping cart on and ask news.yc for feedback.

You need to get to a startup hub, if you're serious. It makes a huge difference in mindset, and odds of success.

I've started companies in Houston, Austin, and now in the Valley. Austin was vastly better than Houston, but Silicon Valley is worlds apart from anything I've ever seen.

The only benefit to not being in a startup hub is that you don't have as short of a runway during that very early self-funded stage. You can live on peanuts in most parts of the country...but in the valley you will go broke fast if you don't have income or funding. So, it seems like "not dying" would be easier in places where the cost of living is very low, but I think it's probably a zombie-like existence. You also don't have to move as fast...and if you aren't moving fast at 3 months into your company, you're as good as dead.

Re: How Not to Die

#57
post #17

50% sounds like really good odds to me, given the payout. It depends to some extent on what it means to fail, and how long it takes to succeed. But if your odds of a substantial payout are 50%, and the length of time to get to success or failure is less than 4 years, then these are phenomenal odds. Of course, it's not just money - you "pay" in other ways. If it takes, say, 4 years to get to the success or failure poi…

I'm on my second startup. My first was a "failure" by some definitions of failure (it paid the bills, bought me a 350Z, and worked me nearly to death for seven years...it never really stopped being a service business despite my attempts to convince myself that I was selling products--I consider it a failure, but I learned a lot).

"Wisdom and exhaustion in equal parts, I'd suspect, and only one side is going to win."

Agreed. I'm just stubborn enough to keep trying. I'm also lucky enough to have a fantastic business partner, which I didn't have the first time around (I should have brought him on back then...he was already doing contract work for me on a regular basis).

This time around I put much tighter time constraints on myself. I'm not giving myself 7 years to figure out if I have a failure on my hands. Every 6 months I evaluate where we are, and if I don't see clearly how to get to the next level, it's time for a serious change. So far, that hasn't happened...wisdom gained from the previous startup seems to have allowed me to avoid most pitfalls.

Re: How Not to Die

#59
post #41

Before you get too excited about this article, realize that if you are not in the YC club, this article was not intended for you. In other words, the warm encouraging phrases have qualifiers - you have to figure out what they are and if they apply to you.

But that's true for anything you read, online or otherwise. All advice or opinions have qualifiers that you need to evaluate.

Re: How Not to Die

#60
post #50
post #41

Before you get too excited about this article, realize that if you are not in the YC club, this article was not intended for you. In other words, the warm encouraging phrases have qualifiers - you have to figure out what they are and if they apply to you.

The only qualifiers I see are "smart" and "flexible". If both those things apply to you, then so does the article.

How about this: If you are in the YC club, you and your cofounders, the idea, prototype, business model, user base have passed muster. Your team is in a startup hub like SFO/BOS. You will have the backing, connections and resources of YC.

Otherwise, the qualifiers that apply to any other startup in general, apply.

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