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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#51

Post by layer8 »

BobbyTables2 wrote: post #14
anematode wrote: post #3

> The compartmentalisation that must be required by the scientists and engineers to reconcile with the fact that their work being used to bomb and kill people must be crazy. I think about a related question pretty often: What proportion of people working at these companies are "true believers", that their work will be a net benefit for humanity? And for those people (if they are at all numerous), how do they plan to…

I’ve wondered about this. If one works for a gun manufacturer, should they feel personally guilty when crimes are committed? What about when police arrest a criminal without injury? Perhaps the balance is determined whether the viewpoint is from one of killing or one of deterrence. If a doctor provides medical care that extends a to-be murder’s lifespan, is that a good thing? Sure, hopefully most patients aren’t and…

> If one works for a gun manufacturer, should they feel personally guilty when crimes are committed?

I would be very conflicted, because the inherent purpose of a gun is its ability to harm people, regardless of whether any given concrete case constitutes a crime or not.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#52

Post by globular-toast »

mmilunic wrote: post #43
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

It's normal Gell-Mann amnesia and, yeah, it's a really big part of why AI is so accepted.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#54

Post by typon »

mmilunic wrote: post #43
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

Actually I think AI will largely automate software and math and really not much else in the short to medium term. (speaking as a computer/math person)

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#56

Post by kqr »

beng-nl wrote: post #50
mmilunic wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

I’ve been thinking about this, or a variant of it. Hypothetically, I’m scared and sad that AI can replace me (it currently can’t, not literally, but a lot of my skill and expertise, built up over say 30 years, that used to be valuable and rare is now cheap to get from an AI). Let’s try to see the upside. How ‘powerful’ would it make me if, at the cost of my own edge being dulled, can access everyone else’s edge? I am…

As of today, "minor expert" is the wrong way to phrase it. The flagship LLMs today are at best at an initiate or apprentice level in every field.[1] This is not meant as a derisive remark – having something at hand that is initiate level in every field is remarkable and useful. But it's nowhere near expertise anywhere.

[1]: https://entropicthoughts.com/stop-using-junior-and-senior

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#57

Post by dyauspitr »

overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

[flagged]

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#58

Post by dyauspitr »

mmilunic wrote: post #43
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

You think every person only thinks of their own job and no one dreams of anything bigger from humanity’s perspective? I’m never going to be in some kind of space colony but do I want to see them happen? You betcha.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#60

Post by xyzal »

typon wrote: post #54
mmilunic wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps this is a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia (but kinda inverted) where everyone views AI as too inaccurate for their own niche , but perfectly fine for every other field that they know comparably little about.

Actually I think AI will largely automate software and math and really not much else in the short to medium term. (speaking as a computer/math person)

Exactly. Regarding software, it is trained on a massive corpus of code and the feedback loop can be very fast (playing well into LLM's upsides) and results are ... mediocre.

Recently I had to go through some building regulations and Claude's advices were catastrophic.

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