Live data from Hacker News

Illusions of understanding in the sciences

link.springer.com

51–60 of 68 posts

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#51
post #13

Is it a probability that the authors understood the notion of Understanding all wrong? ;).

You jest but are right. There is nothing new in the article and has already been covered well by some of the greatest Scientists/Mathematicians. We must be careful that articles/papers like these are not used by the anti-scientific crowd to promote their talking points and agendas. Notably, Henri Poincare ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Poincar%C3%A9 and https://henripoincarepapers.univ-nantes.fr/en/ ) wrote th…

> We must be careful that articles/papers like these are not used by the anti-scientific crowd to promote their talking points and agendas.

It is a slippery slope. At the moment you started to avoid talking about some things because your political opponents could use your ideas to promote their agenda, you stopped being a scientist and became a politician. You thinking is no more scientific, it is political. You are not a scientist anymore, you are a politician.

I dramatize a bit, it doesn't happen all suddenly, but before you started to devise a strategy of censoring discussion due to political reasons, you should find a way to do it without inhibiting thought and free flow of ideas.

From the other hand, I don't understand the discourse at all. If you don't like what anti-scientific crowd says, just don't read them. They will find talking points with you or without you. I believe, people are mistaken that you can curb somehow anti-science movement.

Lets take for example that story with "vaccines cause autism". If the paper claiming that was not published, there would be no antivaxxers, oder? I believe it doesn't matter. They would find something else, the whole point of their ideology "science is a conspiracy which hides things". So not published paper comes into the category of hidden things. They always find something. It is dynamic system with a chaotic behavior, you can try as hard as you like to remove triggers created by science, but conspiracy theories would be spawn by something "smaller".

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#52
got me at "Most often scientists believe they understand more than they do, making their belief an illusion." but why is it still bothering me? 1. feels unfalsifiable in spirit 2. somewhat restates "all models are wrong, but some are useful" less cleanly 3. doesn't really offer like, what can we do as science people? tomorrow morning perspective

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#53
post #4

Looking at the paper, the core message is 'that even scientists harbor the illusion of understanding more than they actually do'. In reality, science operates much like a mental model. The paper argues that just because a model predicts future values more accurately, it doesn't mean the model explains the actual causal structure. Yet, the fact that outcomes fall within the predicted range reinforces the illusion that…

Exactly. The lede buried here is, as you say, accurate prediction is not better understanding Which has a statistician counterintuition Less "accurate" model can lead to better prediction Therefore (in my understanding) A better understanding encodes more info about how much more it can be improved, when compared to a less good understanding Maybe understanding should be related to wisdom rather than intelligence? Li…

Can you please elaborate on the series ? I didn't get the reference.

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#54
post #29
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 'All models are wrong, but some are useful.' And beyond that: models become most interesting at the point they fail, because that's where you learn something.

The problem is when certain (mental) models are important to a community or science specialization. When these models fail, the community will often enforce the model and censor the opposing facts. I have encountered several such conflicts. Scientists are still humans. Individual people may be curious and be open to some questioning. But thy find it difficult to discuss such things in the open. It is like a religious…

Are you talking about magnetic reconnection? It's not in violation of physical law.

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#55
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You jest but are right. There is nothing new in the article and has already been covered well by some of the greatest Scientists/Mathematicians. We must be careful that articles/papers like these are not used by the anti-scientific crowd to promote their talking points and agendas. Notably, Henri Poincare ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Poincar%C3%A9 and https://henripoincarepapers.univ-nantes.fr/en/ ) wrote th…

> We must be careful that articles/papers like these are not used by the anti-scientific crowd to promote their talking points and agendas. It is a slippery slope. At the moment you started to avoid talking about some things because your political opponents could use your ideas to promote their agenda, you stopped being a scientist and became a politician. You thinking is no more scientific, it is political. You are…

You are on a tangent here and not what i was implying.

It is not about censoring or playing politics. It is about the wording of the title of the OP article and its rather well-known thesis. All Scientists know the limitations of their own understanding and continuously revise it using the Scientific Method.

Given the very real negative agendas out there, it is every scientifically-minded person's duty to be aware of how their own words might be turned to discredit Science itself even though they did not mean it originally. The fact that the anti-scientific crowd might find something else to attack is beside the point. Science does not exist in vacuum but is subject to societal context/pressures and hence scientists must learn to navigate them judiciously in their writings.

As Isaac Asimov noted; The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#56
> Many people know of Simpson’s through simple examples. One was UC Berkeley admissions showing that individual departments admitted more women than men but the university as a whole had admitted more men than women (Bickel et al., 1975).

This only seems possible if students can be admitted to more than one department.

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#57
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The lede buried here is, as you say, accurate prediction is not better understanding Which has a statistician counterintuition Less "accurate" model can lead to better prediction Therefore (in my understanding) A better understanding encodes more info about how much more it can be improved, when compared to a less good understanding Maybe understanding should be related to wisdom rather than intelligence? Li…

Can you please elaborate on the series ? I didn't get the reference.

Sorry was in a bit of brain fog

https://youtu.be/_Zxr9STGwbQ?t=3m39s

There's an upcoming book, mentioned in the blurb

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#58
The authors of this paper have not studied what historians and philosophers of science have written. They just use 'induction', 'validity', etc. They reinvent the wheel. They write "Of course the validity of that induction depends on a host of other assumptions.". Duhem-Quine thesis is better than this way of formulation, as the latter doesn't use 'validity'.

If authors ever come to this forum, please read Duhem-Quine thesis, over/under determination, inference to the best explanation, Goodman's paradox, also how various theories in philosophy of sciences: from Popper to Kuhn, Lakatos, Laudan, etc.

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#59
Who is this for? This section, which is fairly close to a central thesis, contains no citations:

> Illusions of understanding can take several (overlapping) forms. Some that are commonly encountered are: (1) Illusions of explanatory depth (we think we personally understand things in more detail than we do). (2) Illusions of explanatory completeness (even if we don’t think we fully understand it ourselves, we think the best experts do). (3) Illusions resulting from understanding something other than the goal (e.g. we believe we understand the formation of memories because we understand the anatomy of the brain site, the hippocampus, that is needed for such learning). (4) Illusions due to simple statements giving a feeling of insight (such as when tautological statements seem insightful because they are framed in a reductionist manner). (5) Illusions (as described earlier) that one understands the cause of phenomena because there exists a model or procedure that predicts well. (6) Illusions of causal strength (attending to an observed relation makes one believe the causal connection is stronger than it is). (7) illusions that one can describe causes simply. (8) Illusions by the explainer that the recipient understands what the communicator intends. (9) Illusions by the recipient of an explanation that the communicator understands well and that the explanation is correct and complete.

Are we to infer that these observations are unsupported by evidence? Are we to assume that the research work is so poorly constructed that they did not do research to find evidence of the existence of the classifications in existing research?

Re: Illusions of understanding in the sciences

#60
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We must be careful that articles/papers like these are not used by the anti-scientific crowd to promote their talking points and agendas. It is a slippery slope. At the moment you started to avoid talking about some things because your political opponents could use your ideas to promote their agenda, you stopped being a scientist and became a politician. You thinking is no more scientific, it is political. You are…

You are on a tangent here and not what i was implying. It is not about censoring or playing politics. It is about the wording of the title of the OP article and its rather well-known thesis. All Scientists know the limitations of their own understanding and continuously revise it using the Scientific Method. Given the very real negative agendas out there, it is every scientifically-minded person's duty to be aware of…

> The fact that the anti-scientific crowd might find something else to attack is beside the point.

I can't agree. If awareness doesn't change the outcome, then why to practice it?

Post reply on HN