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Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

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Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#51

Post by cyclopeanutopia »

troyvit wrote: post #32
nkrisc wrote: post #8

Gambling addicts will really gamble on anything, won’t they? It’s a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as “predictions”.

I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is. All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding a…

You seem to ignore the fact that most people know how bad alcohol, gambling, cigarettes and other addictive things are, yet they still choose them and then suffer consequences.

If you asked someone whether they wanted to get ass cancer and they told you: "yeah, yolo", wouldn't it be a contempt-worthy choice? It would.

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#52

Post by scottyah »

mint5 wrote: post #39
qup wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gambling takes many forms. If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.

It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.

It's only a scam if they don't disclose that. If the house brought the two people together I'd say it's fair as services rendered. I don't get mad when a bar charges more than the base cost of the alcohol.

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#53

Post by AureliusMA »

HeavyStorm wrote: post #38

If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.

The betting contract depended on the Oracle's data for resolution. The Oracle's data was altered. The betting contract wasn't altered, however the social contract was.

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#54

Post by ineedasername »

nkrisc wrote: post #8

Gambling addicts will really gamble on anything, won’t they? It’s a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as “predictions”.

It’s not gambling, these are legitimate financial instruments designed to allow proper risk management through appropriately market-set pricing on the value of that risk mitigation, and it’s doing this in a way that democratizes risk management in a way previously inaccessible to the public.

j/k totally gambling

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#55

Post by vrganj »

nkrisc wrote: post #8

Gambling addicts will really gamble on anything, won’t they? It’s a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as “predictions”.

How is it any different from the stock market?

(Whether you read this as a defense of polymarket or an indictment of shareholder capitalism might depend on your ideology)

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#58

Post by troyvit »

cyclopeanutopia wrote: post #51
troyvit wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is. All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding a…

You seem to ignore the fact that most people know how bad alcohol, gambling, cigarettes and other addictive things are, yet they still choose them and then suffer consequences. If you asked someone whether they wanted to get ass cancer and they told you: "yeah, yolo", wouldn't it be a contempt-worthy choice? It would.

Nah I just have compassion for people. For one thing, not everybody knows how bad those things are. If all you see is that "fun uncle" who's always drunk, you learn that drinking isn't so bad. Couple that with being bombarded by positive messages around drinking and the popular belief that anything in moderation is OK, and you end up doing them. The very act of doing them obscures the consequences you are suffering. That's chemical.

The same thing happens with gambling, but it's a dopamine rush instead of an alcohol rush.

I'm not saying people have no agency, I'm just saying there's a lot more going on than just agency.

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#59

Post by HDThoreaun »

mint5 wrote: post #39
qup wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gambling takes many forms. If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.

It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.

Your definition of scam is terrible

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#60

Post by HDThoreaun »

solumos wrote: post #41
xg15 wrote: post #34

I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.

Polymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)

Poly market resolution has a long history of controversy. Going back years now the DAO has essentially scammed users with questionable resolutions.
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