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Apocalypse Early Warning System

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Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#51

Post by jfengel »

aorloff wrote: post #13
andrewla wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like an area rife for a scam, like hurricane insurance or earthquake insurance. You pocket the money, and when disaster strikes, who is going to sue you when you do nothing? If there was a real bunker-worthy event then all your insurees have been devoured by zombies or dissolved by radioactive strings or whatever.

On Polymarket, $60m has been wagered on "Will Jesus return before 2027" https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...

Yeah, but Jesus is gonna place a big bet on himself just before he returns.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#52

Post by jfengel »

essefjo wrote: post #45
2ndorderthought wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll definitely put money on that one around December for a quick return. Thanks for the tip

Why wait till December? Aren't there higher returns the earlier you put money?

Is it profitable? Current price for No is $.96. Making 4% in 8 months is better than most sure bets but less than the stock market on average.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#53

Post by CamperBob2 »

neilv wrote: post #26
gyomu wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but they have spent tens of millions of dollars on a go bag —> helicopter to private jet -> bunker in New Zealand preplanned route and you haven’t.

Good luck to the billionaires in a real collapse scenario, when their security and support staff can decide that the billionaires are counterproductive, and vote them out of the survival bunkers.

A few moments' thought will convince just about anyone that their best chances of survival will come from allying themselves with a strong, resource-rich leader, namely the one they already work for.

Immediately turning on such a leader would be a bad move, because you'd then have to fight all the other traitors for your share of the loot.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#54

Post by bottlepalm »

gyomu wrote: post #22
bottlepalm wrote: post #21

Do you think that rich people are on some sort of private 'end of the world' mailing list?

No, but they have spent tens of millions of dollars on a go bag —> helicopter to private jet -> bunker in New Zealand preplanned route and you haven’t.

I don't care. And I guarantee you most wealthy people don't care either. A few eccentric wealthy people do and you think r/preppers is filled with the elite - it's not.

Reminds me this this post from Reddit the other day from someone who believes AI is a conspiracy perpetuated by the rich people: https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1syeppa/am_i_ov...

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#56

Post by ajross »

jfengel wrote: post #52
essefjo wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why wait till December? Aren't there higher returns the earlier you put money?

Is it profitable? Current price for No is $.96. Making 4% in 8 months is better than most sure bets but less than the stock market on average.

Stock market's historical average is actually just about 4%/year after inflation. So it does beat it (absent fees), but just barely.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#57

Post by ares623 »

EdwardDiego wrote: post #32
neilv wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck to the billionaires in a real collapse scenario, when their security and support staff can decide that the billionaires are counterproductive, and vote them out of the survival bunkers.

You didn't include the locals, we're not huge fans of being considered a liferaft by people who have actively worked to make the world worse. And we have a can do spirit (and earthmoving equipment...)

I suggest calling one of these bunkers Khazad Dum.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#58

Post by ares623 »

neilv wrote: post #26
gyomu wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but they have spent tens of millions of dollars on a go bag —> helicopter to private jet -> bunker in New Zealand preplanned route and you haven’t.

Good luck to the billionaires in a real collapse scenario, when their security and support staff can decide that the billionaires are counterproductive, and vote them out of the survival bunkers.

A few months of some narrow strait of water in the other side of the world being closed off and New Zealand is about to collapse. And these billionaires think they can just sit back and relax in their bunkers here in an apocalypse scenario?

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#59

Post by Ekaros »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #53
neilv wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck to the billionaires in a real collapse scenario, when their security and support staff can decide that the billionaires are counterproductive, and vote them out of the survival bunkers.

A few moments' thought will convince just about anyone that their best chances of survival will come from allying themselves with a strong, resource-rich leader, namely the one they already work for. Immediately turning on such a leader would be a bad move, because you'd then have to fight all the other traitors for your share of the loot.

If I was a guard. Would I pick up my boss I see every week or some random dude I might have seen year or more ago once? Probably would go with the boss that I am hopefully reasonably friendly with. There really is quite a chain of command even in security.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#60

Post by quantumleaper »

decker wrote: post #3

Fun idea of a metric, but if I'm reading this correctly, we get roughly one apocalypse warning per year? > Level 5 is calibrated so only the highest daily peak in the trailing year should exceed it.

My bet is it's the day of the Super Bowl or the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
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