> already happening with recursive self improvement Are any AI labs claiming this?
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The Closing of the Frontier
51–60 of 142 posts
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#52> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.
The irony is that we've just shifted the complexity. Anyone can make something now, but since everyone is making things, now you need to compete on reach/distribution more aggressively. The new "capital" is social media juice and pre-AI rep. Same problem, different skin.
It’s the same as it always says.
You could always take the time to do something or pay someone else to do it.
You pay others to focus on things you can’t.
Unless myths fully does that (which I say in full confidence that it doesn’t) it’s just making it cheaper to provide focus.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point is it won’t be if these new models stay locked to the public.
It has always baffled me how quickly, and how voraciously, people started to rely on privately owned AI systems. AI is not something discovered by scientists and plucked out of the ether. It's engineered and controlled, for profit, by corporations which have demographics and KPIs. These companies don't owe you anything, and they make no promises. If you're running a business that deeply relies on AI, you might as wel…
your choices are to pay up or shut down.
Another choice is to switch to a different model, perhaps open source this time.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#54> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.
This is so untrue - prestige and connections matter even more, now that work is being commoditised. no?
It seems to follow that when the world is full of slop artists real artists don't get taken seriously/can't get a job.
The Elons/FANGS are generally doing fine though.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#55This feels really premature. The announcement was a week ago. The “this model is too powerful for the general public” sounds like marketing to me. Give it a few months and it will be just another model they are selling, but the NEWER model is just too powerful for the public.
Probably not. "This model is too powerful for the public" can also be interpreted another way, which they've also strongly hinted at - the cost/benefit ratio of the upgrade is negative for the vast majority of all users. Finding vulnerabilities is one of the few cases where it makes sense to use it.
Their writing about the model so far does say this is an issue where, for instance, you can't really use Mythos for interactive coding because it's so slow. You have to give it some work, go home, sleep, come in the next day and then maybe it'll have something for you.
All the AI labs and startups are still losing money hand over fist. Launching Mythos would require it to be priced well above current models, for a much slower product. Would the majority of customers notice the difference in intelligence given the tasks they're setting? If the answer is no, it's not economic to launch.
Really, I'm surprised they've done Mythos. Maybe they just wanted to exploit access to larger contiguous training datacenters than OpenAI, but what these labs need isn't smarter models, it's smaller and cheaper models that users will accept as good enough substitutes (or more advanced model routing, dynamic thinking, etc).
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
It has always baffled me how quickly, and how voraciously, people started to rely on privately owned AI systems. AI is not something discovered by scientists and plucked out of the ether. It's engineered and controlled, for profit, by corporations which have demographics and KPIs. These companies don't owe you anything, and they make no promises. If you're running a business that deeply relies on AI, you might as wel…
your choices are to pay up or shut down. Another choice is to switch to a different model, perhaps open source this time.
Another choice is to write code and learn. Especially if you are 16 and have all day.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#57This feels really premature. The announcement was a week ago. The “this model is too powerful for the general public” sounds like marketing to me. Give it a few months and it will be just another model they are selling, but the NEWER model is just too powerful for the public.
Anthropic marketing is working very well. They are strongly incentivized to say their model is too powerful to release even if it’s not. It’s almost standard practice these days.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#58The problem is Anthropic doesn't have the compute to deploy this model to scale to everyone yet. Dario didn't believe that they needed as much compute, OpenAI is going to have much more compute unlocked this year and especially next year.
This is the real reason it's not out.
Great to see they were able to spin their lack of resources and money losing business model into an abundance of benevolence and concern for the proletariat.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#59> Even though the American dream is nearly dead That dream was always a lie. But in the past, people could purchase more in parity. You only need to look at income versus housing cost in, say, Canada. Realistically there should not exist any superrich, but this seems hard to change. That means there needs to be a different society be given as promise. Other countries manage that. In the USA they have the orange oliga…
The American dream was not a lie if you come from a country with no economic opportunity, or where the govt can just steal your successful business at any time. It's still not dead in that regard, although it's seen better days.
Re: The Closing of the Frontier
#60I'm old enough to remember claims that gpt-2 is too powerful to release.
Good point but that was only 2019... :)