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US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

nytimes.com

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Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#51

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

drnick1 wrote: post #10
ndiddy wrote: post #7

Ali Gholhaki, an Iranian journalist who often publishes first-hand news about impending developments with the IRGC, has reported that the US's demands were the removal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, no nuclear enrichment whatsoever, and US management of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange they were not offering any commitment regarding Lebanon. https://x.com/aghplt/status/2043092254416605522 Given that the US…

> Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile and failed to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily The U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily. When a country had most of its air force and navy destroyed, it is not in a position to demand anything. The Iranians have some missiles and drones left, but they are increasingly isolated and on their last legs…

But why hasn't the US come close to trying given their overwhelming advantages in firepower? To me, and I suspect to Iran, it seems clear that it's because the Trump regime fears the domestic costs of doing so. He's already feuding with formerly loyal cronies in the media over a dozen military deaths and $4 gas; can he really afford to risk what the response might be to hundreds or thousands of dead American soldiers with little to show for it but an extended oil crisis?

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#52

Post by thot_experiment »

WarmWash wrote: post #31
hgoel wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insane reasoning after threatening genocide, the "no quarter" comment, previous bad faith negotiations, then further bombing the people trying to negotiate in previous attempts. This isn't just about the current regime wanting to stay in power, do you think the average Iranian is going to trust the side that literally threatened to end their civilization overnight? That goes far beyond calling for regime change.

May I remind you the Iranian regime was locking down the internet and shooting protesters in the street in the weeks leading up to the attack.

LMAO ok, I mean that's bad but if we're referencing history to contextualize a situation let's start with the USA and UK deciding that "sovereign country" isn't a real thing if they vote to nationalize their oil industry. We're heading toward decade 8 of FAFO here with zero lessons learned.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#53

Post by WarmWash »

kumarvvr wrote: post #43
WarmWash wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was banking on a revolution, which hasn't yet materialized. A near term power vacuum and civil war might not be unlikely right now. This war started (on purpose) when Iran was the furthest thing from "united".

Presently we are seeing a rally around the flag in vogue in Iran. They are a civilization going back centuries. No matter their internal fights, they will come together against a common enemy, an enemy for 45 years that is. I am guessing the IRGC will also be careful enough to not rile up the populace until this war is over.

From what I have heard from the ground, regular people are paralyzed with fear/uncertainty and people with power feel like they are dead no matter what.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#54

Post by thefounder »

kumarvvr wrote: post #23

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…

I think dropping a nuke is not out of question. We just have to watch the language of the U.S administration over the next weeks.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#55

Post by Teever »

ElProlactin wrote: post #27
fnordpiglet wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is it’s a chance to restock and reposition air defense as the slow attrition of interceptors was starting to open holes in the air defense. This administration has used negotiations as a diversion for further attacks on Iran and I suspect this is no different. I also suspect the Iranians know this and are likewise doing their best to prepare for them to fail.

I think it's less about restocking and repositioning air defenses. The expensive weapons systems the US and its allies are running short on can't be replenished in weeks or even months. I think this was more about buying time to prepare for a ground war and probably to try to come up with some semblance of a strategy. It also served as a useful way for Trump to throw Vance under the bus. If the negotiations were seri…

As I understand it Iran requested that Vance conduct the negotiations.[0] The speculation is that they did so in order to tarnish his image in the American people by attaching his name and face to the conflict which is something he appears to have been desperate to avoid.

If this is the case it seems like an extremely effective way to kneecap the eventual successor to a very unhealthy 79 year old man who may die in office.

One would hope that even tangential involvement in this war would be the kiss of death for any political career in the US but it's hard to say. The American electorate is a fickle creature. It always finds new ways to surprise and disappoint.

[0] https://ca.news.yahoo.com/iran-wanted-negotiate-vance-got-17...

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#56

Post by dimator »

WarmWash wrote: post #31
hgoel wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insane reasoning after threatening genocide, the "no quarter" comment, previous bad faith negotiations, then further bombing the people trying to negotiate in previous attempts. This isn't just about the current regime wanting to stay in power, do you think the average Iranian is going to trust the side that literally threatened to end their civilization overnight? That goes far beyond calling for regime change.

May I remind you the Iranian regime was locking down the internet and shooting protesters in the street in the weeks leading up to the attack.

Similar shit happening in North Korea. Should the US go there next?

Regime change was NOT the goal, right? Wasn't that the party line?

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#57

Post by raincole »

dimator wrote: post #56
WarmWash wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May I remind you the Iranian regime was locking down the internet and shooting protesters in the street in the weeks leading up to the attack.

Similar shit happening in North Korea. Should the US go there next? Regime change was NOT the goal, right? Wasn't that the party line?

No one goes for NK because they have nuke. The exact situation the US/Israel try to prevent for Iran.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#58

Post by bertylicious »

drnick1 wrote: post #10
ndiddy wrote: post #7

Ali Gholhaki, an Iranian journalist who often publishes first-hand news about impending developments with the IRGC, has reported that the US's demands were the removal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, no nuclear enrichment whatsoever, and US management of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange they were not offering any commitment regarding Lebanon. https://x.com/aghplt/status/2043092254416605522 Given that the US…

> Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile and failed to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily The U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily. When a country had most of its air force and navy destroyed, it is not in a position to demand anything. The Iranians have some missiles and drones left, but they are increasingly isolated and on their last legs…

Interesting. It seems like you're one of those persons that actually believe what Trump and Hegseth are saying regarding the war. Is that so?

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#59

Post by YZF »

kumarvvr wrote: post #23

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…

To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage.

Bombing has limits but can also do a lot of damage. It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. It's also true that some infrastucture is buried. But a lot isn't. Specifically all the energy infrastructure that accounts for half of the country's revenue and about 25% of GDP is easily bombed.

There is leverage. That said your leverage over someone who is willing to die and not give anything up is always somewhat limited.

Iran also has leverage due to its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its remaining ability to fire missiles and drones across the region.

The GCC and their allies has no problem flying drinking water in if that's really needed. But it's true that Iran can hurt them some more. They are sitting on some extraordinarily large cash reserves and other investments so they may be willing to take some pain. Supposedly some of them were asking the US to keep attacking Iran. Also keep in mind none of these countries have actively joined the war yet and that may change if Iran keeps attacking. They have small but very well equipped armies.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#60

Post by rGqt187 »

That was expected. The previous article in the NYT about internal opposition against Trump's war policies, which specifically protected Vance, was a farce and probably a deliberate fake leak.

Vance has a big mouth about isolationism, but will follow the permanent bureaucracy like anyone else. The Iran war was on the agenda since 1979, they just needed someone crazy enough to do it when Russia is weakened.

The agenda 2025 wants to hurt Europe and China, so that goal is reached by a prolonged war. The EU leaders are children who are too stupid to negotiate on their own. The EU press is owned by pro-US corporations, like Springer in Germany that makes journalists sign an agreement that "Atlanticism" is one of the core values of "Die Welt" and "Bild". Previously Green party anti-war magazines like TAZ have gone neocon. Unfortunately, "Atlanticism" is a one way street.

We are now in the situation that the US threatens the EU to withdraw from NATO when it cannot even protect the Gulf States. The EU "leaders" nod fearfully and isolate themselves from all of Asia and the Middle East instead of negotiating on their own.

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