Earlier quoted context omitted.
Capitalism is just a projection of our natural competition for scarce resources onto an economic system.
Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.
The supply is greatest at the source.
Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
51–60 of 138 posts
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#52Any time the headline is gamblers making millions the reality is 90% of gamblers losing, maybe 9% breaking even or making small wins, and a few making millions.
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#53Do they allow for bets like how many civilians killed by Israel during April?
Or how many schools are bombed by the USA?
Or how many times will it take the USA to declare victory before the end of the conflict?
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#54> There is now more than $500,000 (£371,000) staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka this year . Now everyone has a chance to profit from war ! Thank you Polymarket
You make it sound bad, but I personally am very much in favor of regular people having access to the same bad things that the people in charge have.
You think normal folks should have access to precision guided munitions and chemical weapons?
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#55Any time the headline is gamblers making millions the reality is 90% of gamblers losing, maybe 9% breaking even or making small wins, and a few making millions.
Well, for sure thats the classic casino stat :-))
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think it does. Capitalism only allows one to save one's fruit of their labor to use down the line. You exchange it for money, then use that money to buy other stuff. People using it to gamble has more to do with gambling people than with capitalism people. You can have gambling in communism or socialism, only stakes there are limited because the fruit of the labor of people doesn't belong to them like in capi…
Look around you, the economy is aligning itself entirely around gambling. From bitcoin to nfts to the stock market to AI to art to dating apps to social media feeds to video games to venture capital to literal gambling apps infesting our phones ads sports. And finally we have actual members of the government gambling on policy. The capitalism you grew up with is dead, the arguments for and against it are old and stal…
Those are diseases of morality, not capitalism. Someone who lights a warehouse on fire because they aren't paid enough is an immoral person. In a communist country they would be called a Wrecker and they'd face a firing squad for their actions.
Gambling, likewise, is a moral problem. It should be illegal or highly restricted and often was. Many other problems we face now could be fixed simply by reinstating laws that used to exist.
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. These resolvers only deal with rules disputes, i.e. disputes over the fine print. This is only applicable if you are gambling on polymarket. The probabilities while the market is open are set by market forces. Of course you have to read the fine print very carefully to understand what a particular market is about. The more deceptive thing is the potential disparity between the title and the rules. Most market par…
I think GP is saying that, in principle, the UMA token holders can resolve a dispute any way they see fit, even if in practice it's resolved according to the rules. At the end of the day there is someone who has to arbitrate 'truth' for the purposes of payout.
it's an imperfect system, but UMA decisions can also be disputed again, up to two times iirc, which moves the dispute/decision to a different group of UMA whales. tbh, i think this is as good as it gets – unless you stay out of this completely.
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#58So... >“It used to be the news channels were the callers,” said Kane. “They used to be the final say in big events. Like this officially happened because CNN and Fox News said so. But thanks to Polymarket, there’s a new signal.” This is interesting because of this: >At the moment, when there is a dispute, markets on Polymarket are settled by an anonymous group of people who hold a crypto token called UMA. [...] >It i…
No. These resolvers only deal with rules disputes, i.e. disputes over the fine print. This is only applicable if you are gambling on polymarket. The probabilities while the market is open are set by market forces. Of course you have to read the fine print very carefully to understand what a particular market is about. The more deceptive thing is the potential disparity between the title and the rules. Most market par…
Yes but for example if I look at the current bet on “Military action against Iran ends on…” it talks about the date on which neither US nor Israel initiate a drone missile or air strike on Iranian soil. This seems pretty solid, but we know both countries have launched drone or missile strike even before the current conflict.
So if the war ends but then the US sends a drone to kill one guy in particular, maybe even a terrorist not affiliated with the government, does that count? The fine print is not always that detailed especially for some kinds of events.
This is not surprising for a betting platform, but if this betting platform positions itself as a sort of crowdfunded news outlet, ruling over the fine print essentially means ruling over the news. Obviously all news outlets decide which news they should publish, but at least with traditional outlets you tend to know their biases, the group of people controlling them and so on. Instead the fine print, and ultimately (in Polymarket’s view) the source of the truth about world news, relies on a group of anonymous people voting for what they believe to be the actual meaning of world events.
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
Look around you, the economy is aligning itself entirely around gambling. From bitcoin to nfts to the stock market to AI to art to dating apps to social media feeds to video games to venture capital to literal gambling apps infesting our phones ads sports. And finally we have actual members of the government gambling on policy. The capitalism you grew up with is dead, the arguments for and against it are old and stal…
Those are diseases of morality, not capitalism. Someone who lights a warehouse on fire because they aren't paid enough is an immoral person. In a communist country they would be called a Wrecker and they'd face a firing squad for their actions. Gambling, likewise, is a moral problem. It should be illegal or highly restricted and often was. Many other problems we face now could be fixed simply by reinstating laws that…
there a lot of things that may be immoral but it is the system that promotes it or prevents it. our system promotes it (there are ads for kashi and fanduel on nickelodeon) so it is the capitalism
Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war
#60Imagine a bunch of people are tortured, removed from their homes, are killed… and you get paid? Are you cheering for it because you’re getting paid?
I can’t imagine wanting to be cheering on death and destruction.