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If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

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Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#51

Post by scyzoryk_xyz »

stickfigure wrote: post #40
jnovek wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with Steve Blank? What you’re describing really isn’t his MO at all.

I'm not, but this is not a great introduction. It's handwavy and makes the assumption that AI dev tools are much farther along than they are. I have seen this a lot lately; the farther up the management chain and farther away from putting hands on code, the more confident people seem to be in the power of AI tools. For big complex real world problems, and big complex real worlde codebases, the AIs are helpful but not…

I will take a lot more hand waving from the 70-something year-old Stanford professor who co-created far-up the chain management paradigms that run a good chunk of the economy. That context kinda changes things but what do I know.

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#52

Post by ryandrake »

karolist wrote: post #20

The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…

It's gotten to the point where, when I see yet another Thought Leadership article about software development, I search the page for the word "will". If I see unqualified predictions of the future (AI will change this and Agents will do that and developers will need to do thus), I think I can safely ignore the article. Who has the hubris to make such strong and unwavering statements about a future nobody can see?

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#53

Post by losvedir »

kbelder wrote: post #9
kdazzle wrote: post #4

> the bottleneck is no longer engineering, it’s ____ 90% of blog articles created in the last two years are probably dead on arrival

Made me wonder if there's a live-streaming equivalent for blogging... some platform that both ensures the reader knows the blogger is a person, and promotes a parasocial relationship. There's live-coding, so it's not totally a crazy idea.

As a way to get my feet wet vibe coding, I made https://seeitwritten.com with that idea. That by capturing how you write with all its fits and starts you can show that a human wrote it. So, sort of recorded live-streaming. But I'm thinking that a sufficiently cute agent could be prompted to write something and re-write something in a convincing manner. I'm not so sure about that, though, since their corpus is completed text rather than text in action.

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#54

Post by taurath »

fred_is_fred wrote: post #26

Chris has been so focused for 5 years that he had no clue about anything else going on in the industry?

It reads to me like the author thinks Chris is an idiot for not selling his automation tech to the defense industry

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#55

Post by antonvs »

ryandrake wrote: post #52
karolist wrote: post #20

The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…

It's gotten to the point where, when I see yet another Thought Leadership article about software development, I search the page for the word "will". If I see unqualified predictions of the future (AI will change this and Agents will do that and developers will need to do thus), I think I can safely ignore the article. Who has the hubris to make such strong and unwavering statements about a future nobody can see?

> Who has the hubris to make such strong and unwavering statements about a future nobody can see?

LinkedIn influencers

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#56

Post by antonvs »

scyzoryk_xyz wrote: post #51
stickfigure wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not, but this is not a great introduction. It's handwavy and makes the assumption that AI dev tools are much farther along than they are. I have seen this a lot lately; the farther up the management chain and farther away from putting hands on code, the more confident people seem to be in the power of AI tools. For big complex real world problems, and big complex real worlde codebases, the AIs are helpful but not…

I will take a lot more hand waving from the 70-something year-old Stanford professor who co-created far-up the chain management paradigms that run a good chunk of the economy. That context kinda changes things but what do I know.

So you’re saying he’s majorly complicit in the ultracapitalist dystopia the US has turned into?

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#58

Post by dist-epoch »

karolist wrote: post #20

The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…

You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential.

One year ago models could barely write a working function.

Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true

#60

Post by kokanee »

dist-epoch wrote: post #58
karolist wrote: post #20

The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…

You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential. One year ago models could barely write a working function.

One year before 1969 we had never been to the moon. In the 70s credible scientists and physicists predicted that large martian colonies would exist before the year 2000.

If a metric goes from 0 to 2 it doesn't mean it's on a long-lived exponential trajectory.

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