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Robots eat cars

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Re: Robots eat cars

#51

Post by mchusma »

vessenes wrote: post #44
mediaman wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, are all of those model 3 and Y vehicles robotaxis? Or are you saying that because they produced 1.5 million non-robotaxi cars in 2025 that the estimate of producing 1 million robotaxis in the following year is pretty reasonable, because making them autonomous taxis is a minor feature bump...?

No, I'm saying that the original content is low-effort shitposting, and that Tesla has the ability to scale industrial production to over 1mm 'things' per year, as evidenced by production last year. I did the OP the mild courtesy of asking him to open up a useful conversation. For instance, "Is there going to be demand for 1mm robots, and if so, when?" Or "How much actual retooling is necessary in Fremont for this?"…

I think teslas issue is that they need the AI5 chip for robotaxi ops, the current chip just doesn’t cut it. So if they have batches end of 2026 and start optimizing the models, by mid 2027 volume production you might have robotaxis coming online at about 100k per month. Waymo currently has less than 10k cars on the road.

Lots of ifs here. If they can enable hardware 4 for robotaxi ops then they can have 3m+ cars ready to go. But I am skeptical of it. And given that Elon’s top priority is scaling chips and AI5, I think that is proof that he thinks it is likely necessary too.

So 1m robotaxis by end of 2026 is theoretically possible but I think unlikely, and it’s more likely in the 200k-1m by end of 2027. If they pull that off, they could still be largest by then if Waymo doesn’t rapidly scale. Fun times!

Re: Robots eat cars

#52

Post by goosejuice »

dangus wrote: post #47
goosejuice wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who in the buyer demographic for a Model S wouldn’t take a Porsche Taycan, AUD A6 Sportback, or Lucid Air over that vehicle? > Who in the buyer demographic for the Model X won’t take a Kia EV9, Lucid Gravity, or Volvo EX-90? The S and X are plenty competitive here for many buyers. Did any of those cars outsell the S in 2025 in the US? I would not trust a Kia or Volvo EV.

From what I can see doing some quick searches the EV9 sold 22,017 in 2024 just in the US , while Tesla's global deliveries of "other models" (S, X, and Cybertruck combined, which includes over 10,000 Cybertrucks) totaled 85,133. This, critically for this comparison, includes China. The X is not competitive with proper 3-row SUVs as the 3rd row is not usable enough, and it was cannibalized by the Y which is not an upm…

> From what I can see doing some quick searches the EV9 sold 22,017 in 2024 just in the US, while Tesla's global deliveries of "other models" (S, X, and Cybertruck combined, which includes over 10,000 Cybertrucks) totaled 85,133. This, critically for this comparison, includes China.

Cars in the US. As in the Taycan, A6 e-tron, and Air. Maybe the Air had more sales in '25.

> The type of buyer who is actually looking for a $90,000 luxury vehicle, that's the type of person I am saying the X and S are not competitive with

> Someone spending that much in 2026 will choose the extra luxury features, build quality, and brand prestige of something like a Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lucid.

This is a silly internet trope that doesn't align with reality. Many factors go into a car purchase. ADAS, appearances, software, reliability, performance, efficiency, charging network, trends, etc. The affordability of a car doesn't inform the preferences of the buyer.

But yes in 2026 they don't really have a choice unless they buy used.

> Which is why they're being discontinued.

Or they're being discontinued because they no longer serve a purpose for Tesla.

Re: Robots eat cars

#53

Post by dcrazy »

mememememememo wrote: post #40
dcrazy wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla only selling 4 models makes for difficult comparisons with companies like Toyota that sell several cars in overlapping segments.

The limit to EVs makes it fine (if excl. PHEVs). If BYD/Toyota have more models that is fine for the comparison. That is the point.

The whole story about Tesla until 2025 was that they had the #1 selling model across any category: BEVs, PHEVs, and ICEs included. So it’s absolutely correct to note when that model’s sales no longer exceed those of a PHEV or ICE model, and it’s always in the context of how competitors choose to segment their offerings.

The core truth is that the popularity of buying a new Tesla has slipped significantly relative to competitors.

Re: Robots eat cars

#57

Post by swiftcoder »

> Yesterday, Tesla confirmed that Model S and Model X production is over

Did the the 3 and the Y completely cannibalise sales of S and X, or what's going on here?

Re: Robots eat cars

#60

Post by adrian_b »

mememememememo wrote: post #40
dcrazy wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla only selling 4 models makes for difficult comparisons with companies like Toyota that sell several cars in overlapping segments.

The limit to EVs makes it fine (if excl. PHEVs). If BYD/Toyota have more models that is fine for the comparison. That is the point.

No, it does not make the comparison unbiased, because other companies, like BYD, may sell in a month as much EV cars as Tesla sells in a quarter, but they are distributed over diverse models, so one Tesla model may indeed sell more than any other model, without this reflecting the EV market share.

E.g. for BYD the 2026 target is over 1.5 million exported EV cars, with more than that produced for the internal Chinese market. During 2025, BYD exported more than 1 million EV cars, besides the production for the Chinese market.

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