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OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

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Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#52
post #22

> Within a year of launching ChatGPT, we reached $1B in revenue. By the end of 2024 we were generating $1B per quarter. We are now generating $2B in revenue per month. They raised $122B. 122 / 12*2 = 5 years to get your money back (I simplify, I know revenue profit) They are so big that almost no one can afford to acquire them. It is similar as someone would like to acquire MSFT or AAPL. WCGW?

Correction: no one can afford to acquire them.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#53
post #8

Are there any Polymarket / Kalshi bets on the over-under for the price? I wonder when the music will stop.

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-a...

I don't gamble but if I did, I'd bet a lot on $1.6t.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#54
post #13

Wow. I doubt Anthropic can raise that. Are they more efficient, can they do with less?

Anthropic doesn't have anything else other than the Claude models. But notice that no-one , not a single mention of Deepseek tells me that they are preparing to scare everyone again. Which is why Dario continues to scare-monger on local models. Sometimes you do not need hundreds of billions of dollars for inference when it can be done locally with efficient software; and Google proved that. But where is the money in…

> Only a matter of time for local models to reach Opus level. We are 1 or at most 2 years behind that and Anthropic knows that.

Can confirm. Kimi K2.5 is pretty intelligent and most of the time there's no difference between Opus and Kimi.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#55

feels like an insult to readers to try to pretend that their revenue per month is comparable to google or apples growth when the funding is absurdly different, not to mention inflation itself. I am very much onboard with AI within my workflow. I just don't really see a future where openai/anthropic are the absolute front runners for devs though. Maybe OpenAI does just have the better vision by targeting the general p…

It's hard to train models in the open. All the big players are using lots of "dodgy" training data. Like books, video, code, destinations. If you did that in the open, the lawyers would shut you down.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#58
$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since?

Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already.

However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sales and reports revenue on that 20%. Anthropic reports all revenue, including AWS's share.[2]

[0]https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-...

[1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-arr-surges-19-billi...

[2]https://x.com/EthanChoi7/status/2036638459868385394

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#59
post #14
post #7

I'm old enough to remember when companies worth $1 billion were called "unicorns." Now we have a company raising 122 times that? Valued at nearly 1000 times that...? At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.

I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.

> Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.

This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently?

Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult.

Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before.

Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates.

Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#60
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> To finish, I do just sort of straight up hate the idea that we're comparing this moment to the invention of electricity. It's on the face of it absurd. Do you feel that any technology is comparable in it’s impact?

Most of modern medicine, by which I mean each discovery and invention in their own right, stand alongside electricity. Particularly vaccines. AI isn’t there yet. You could turn off AI tomorrow and there’d be a shock but people would quickly switch back. You could not do the same for electricity, medicine, combustion engines (or steam engines/turbines), computers, the internet, modern building materials, etc. You try…

I think the Internet is the more apt analogy. But even with electricity, you could have taken it away within the first couple decades of its popularity and society would have shrugged it off. Once they got used to that telegraph thing, not so much.
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