Imo most AI compute will happen on-device in the near future.
Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
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Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#52Imo most AI compute will happen on-device in the near future.
Except the price of personal computing is skyrocketing due to the build out of these data centres! I'd love to build a personal computer to run local models, but it's just not affordable any more.
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#53I hope it goes bust soon. I need to buy some RAM and an SSD for my PC...
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
"any day now" Gotta love this argument. Top it off by saying anyone skeptical is a fool, because of course.
i’m sure my argument would have no merit if you ignored the thousands of advancements made in AI over the past few years
I think the biggest case for a bearish attitude towards AGI is simply that we don't take advantage of the intelligence we already have. Look at our elected human leaders, for Pete's sake.
If we had access to AGI today, we'd just find novel and interesting ways to ignore it, enslave it, gimp it, and/or bias it.
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#55A bust that the poor and middle-class will foot the bill for.
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#56It's not really even a question. It's an obvious boondoggle. The forecasted net new energy requirements for the AI buildout over the next couple of years are roughly equivalent to all of Western Europe's power demand today. That's absurd. It's a physical impossibility to bring that much power online that quickly. And the cost to get even close would make AI more expensive than just hiring knowledge workers to do the…
> Wobbly assumption that increasing the size of these models yields better performance. I'm assuming you disagree that larger models are better? Can you expand on what indicates that AI will hit a wall in scaling given the evidence of the last 9 years of scaling transformers (or other models)? Where on the plot does the line go from exponential to flat?
The evidence is the last 9 years of scaling.
The curve flattened out years ago. The exponential was going from GPT-2 to GPT-4 (or thereabouts). After that, it was painfully obvious to anyone observing without a vested interest in believing otherwise that the progress had slowed.
Now, it's not just that progress has slowed: it's that the exponential has reversed. In order to get marginal gains, they have to throw exponentially more hardware at the training.
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#57People really really don’t understand the implications of AGI. Whether or not you believe we will reach it in a fee years, we are certainly wayy closer today than we were even two years ago. The possibility of genuine AGI obliterates all the financial or energy related worries, they pale in comparison to the ultimate impact of such a technology. However, yes, if you believe AGI is not possible or won’t arrive in the…
First, you have to define "AGI".
Next, you have to have a clear path to reaching it.
Then, you have to have the resources to actually walk that path.
Only with all three of those can you make any credible claim that AGI is near.
As it stands, we have none of them—and the lack of the second is the most damning. It's very, very clear at this point that just scaling up the existing LLMs is not going to reach some critical mass and result in AGI, like the serendipitous sapience of Mycroft in The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress.
Given that, any path to AGI necessarily includes some new breakthrough on it (or more than one). And by their essential nature, breakthroughs are not something you can predict or schedule. Indeed, you cannot even be guaranteed that they will ever happen. (It is likely, assuming that it is physically possible to build AGI, that we will figure out how at some point...but not guaranteed.)
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#58Better hope not. If the AI bubble pops it’s going to make the dotcom bubble look like a tiny divot in the road.
The only alternative is to keep feeding the bubble deliberately, while knowing that it's a bubble.
And no bubble can last forever.
And the longer they go, and the larger they get, the worse the fallout is when they finally pop.
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#59I hope not.
Who’s going to pay me otherwise, becoming the chief security officer aboard the Altman-Musktani vessel USCSS Shiba Inu?
You’re all going to eat rats on a stick while I pull the charred meat off some hostile tech CEOs’ neurodivergent talent for lunch I roasted to perfect crispiness with my boring company flamethrower arm attachment.
So please all keep paying the magic word generator companies, so we can replace most of you and your miserably inefficient human production cycles, including eight hours a day not working because you lie around unconsciously, to become better human livestock, eh, I mean valued "Human Resources".
/s
Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
i’m sure my argument would have no merit if you ignored the thousands of advancements made in AI over the past few years
I think the biggest case for a bearish attitude towards AGI is simply that we don't take advantage of the intelligence we already have. Look at our elected human leaders, for Pete's sake. If we had access to AGI today, we'd just find novel and interesting ways to ignore it, enslave it, gimp it, and/or bias it.
What, your preference would be to just unleash it upon the world? I wish the average software engineer had any foundation whatsoever in humanities and philosophy before being allowed to make such decisions, but alas, we are doomed.