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1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

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Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#51

Post by tossandthrow »

bxparks wrote: post #44
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it depends what you call "significant". I am 40 and have over 200k in my 401k, which I think is significant. And I could most likely expect to live 25 more years. If there's a crash tomorrow, my money wouldn't grow the way I am hoping it will over that time, but I should come out ok considering that I will be getting discount stocks while the market recovers.

It is significant if you remain healthy and employed with income. But it is basically nothing if you get laid off at age 56, and you can't find another job due to age discrimination, your COBRA runs out after 18 months, but you are not 65 years old yet for Medicare . Obamacare may be completely neutered by then, so private health insurance may cost $30k/year for a 57 year-old. You still have a mortgage, you can't aff…

Which is likely what happens.

It would not really be a great depression of there was not mass layoffs and immense job insecurity.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#52

Post by TremendousJudge »

hydrogen7800 wrote: post #14
softwaredoug wrote: post #12

“The Great Depression: A Diary” is a great day by day first person account of someone living through the depression. It’s a great reminder how we don’t have a monopoly on insane politics https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6601224-the-great-depres...

I read this more than 10 years ago, so I don't remember a lot, but I do appreciate it for being the only account of the crash that doesn't have historical hindsight. It was interesting to hear someone trying to make sense of things on a near daily basis during the fog of uncertainty. It makes me want to find other such accounts of historical events without the inevitable-seeming cause and effect sequence of events yo…

George Orwell's Homage to Catalonia is about his experience in the Spanish Civil War, published in 1938. He was there between '36 and '37 I think. It's pre WWII, and I found it very interesting for the same reason you say here: his account doesn't have the benefit of hindsight. The civil war wasn't even over when the book was published. It's very interesting to see his perspective, what things he saw coming, and what things he didn't.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#53

Post by xVedun »

hydrogen7800 wrote: post #14
softwaredoug wrote: post #12

“The Great Depression: A Diary” is a great day by day first person account of someone living through the depression. It’s a great reminder how we don’t have a monopoly on insane politics https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6601224-the-great-depres...

I read this more than 10 years ago, so I don't remember a lot, but I do appreciate it for being the only account of the crash that doesn't have historical hindsight. It was interesting to hear someone trying to make sense of things on a near daily basis during the fog of uncertainty. It makes me want to find other such accounts of historical events without the inevitable-seeming cause and effect sequence of events yo…

Check out Demons of Unrest, which covers the few months before the American civil war. It covers the stories of Lincoln, other union leaders and Confederate leaders and their understanding and misunderstandings about what the other side thought.

It's remarkable about what assumptions people can make without talking to people from other places.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#54

Post by TurdF3rguson »

jmclnx wrote: post #5
tartoran wrote: post #3

We may see it again soon

I hope not, my parents were teenagers at the time, my fathers life was terrible back then, he had to join the CCC to survive and to help out his family. He had told me working with the CCC was not a bed of roses and he saw many terrible accidents to some of the workers. But he was glad it existed. Also, back then, I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today. Having such a crash wil…

> Having such a crash will be far worse for society then 1929

It wouldn't be as bad. People will lose their retirement savings but they won't starve. Jobs will be lost, but it's just a matter of time before they're lost anyway to AI.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#55

Post by twisterius »

bxparks wrote: post #44
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it depends what you call "significant". I am 40 and have over 200k in my 401k, which I think is significant. And I could most likely expect to live 25 more years. If there's a crash tomorrow, my money wouldn't grow the way I am hoping it will over that time, but I should come out ok considering that I will be getting discount stocks while the market recovers.

It is significant if you remain healthy and employed with income. But it is basically nothing if you get laid off at age 56, and you can't find another job due to age discrimination, your COBRA runs out after 18 months, but you are not 65 years old yet for Medicare . Obamacare may be completely neutered by then, so private health insurance may cost $30k/year for a 57 year-old. You still have a mortgage, you can't aff…

[dead]

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#56

Post by patrickdavey »

minkeymaniac wrote: post #28
bitwank wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if there was a 29 style crash, assuming you can hold for 20 or so years, less than the length of most home mortgages, you would still come out ahead. Not that it wouldn’t be painful for seniors and those who are middle age and not well diversified, but it’s hard to not see a US crash as a buying opportunity for international capital.

It went down 89% Between 1929 And 1932, it took 25 years to close above 400 again. https://denisgobo.blogspot.com/2008/12/how-long-did-it-take-... Of course with Dollar-Cost Averaging you will be buying at the low until as well

If you're lucky enough to have a job. Which you probably won't in a Great Depression II

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#58

Post by p1esk »

bxparks wrote: post #44
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it depends what you call "significant". I am 40 and have over 200k in my 401k, which I think is significant. And I could most likely expect to live 25 more years. If there's a crash tomorrow, my money wouldn't grow the way I am hoping it will over that time, but I should come out ok considering that I will be getting discount stocks while the market recovers.

It is significant if you remain healthy and employed with income. But it is basically nothing if you get laid off at age 56, and you can't find another job due to age discrimination, your COBRA runs out after 18 months, but you are not 65 years old yet for Medicare . Obamacare may be completely neutered by then, so private health insurance may cost $30k/year for a 57 year-old. You still have a mortgage, you can't aff…

In this scenario I would take that 200k (or whatever there would be), and move to some low COL country.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#59

Post by p1esk »

OrangePilled wrote: post #15

I saw this book at a local library and I set it back down. [0] > Beyond the intrinsic difficulty of revivifying the top-hatted dead, Sorkin’s rendition is limited by his desire to frame 1929 as a story about people. His focus on individuals comes at the expense of analysis—particularly of the deeper economic forces that made the crash likely, if not inevitable. Sorkin is more interested in how the crisis felt than wh…

Sorkin is more interested in how the crisis felt than why it happened.

Thank you - this is exactly what I want to learn more about. Placed an order.

Re: 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History

#60

Post by [deleted] »

p1esk wrote: post #58
bxparks wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is significant if you remain healthy and employed with income. But it is basically nothing if you get laid off at age 56, and you can't find another job due to age discrimination, your COBRA runs out after 18 months, but you are not 65 years old yet for Medicare . Obamacare may be completely neutered by then, so private health insurance may cost $30k/year for a 57 year-old. You still have a mortgage, you can't aff…

In this scenario I would take that 200k (or whatever there would be), and move to some low COL country.

[deleted]
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