Even if Tesla do not survive, ten years from now every new electric car will be a descendant of the Model S in all the major ways - floor-mounted battery pack, lack of physical buttons, etc.
I'm a big Tesla fan, but I disagree. The only way electric cars can possibly make sense is if the batteries are swappable. The electric cars being built now are evolutionary dead ends, IMHO.
2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
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Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#52They need a lot more dealerships. Look at the map of their dealers and there's a huge hole in the middle of the country. A couple in Chicago, one in Denver, and one in Houston. That's it. If you live in say Tennessee you're looking at close to a 10 hour drive to even see one. http://www.teslamotors.com/locations
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm a big Tesla fan, but I disagree. The only way electric cars can possibly make sense is if the batteries are swappable. The electric cars being built now are evolutionary dead ends, IMHO.
If room-temperature superconducting ever becomes a reality, then each car will be loaded with a SMES unit ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_magnetic_energy... ) that charges instantly.
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#54Now the galleries would look a lot better if they used normal photographs; instead of hideous HDR and heavy photoshopping.
This is the image: http://image.automobilemag.com/f/features/awards/1301_2013_a...
Edit: Whoops, it is actually the car's key, laying on the ground. See this link for the key shown in someone's hand: http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2012/07/24/a-quick...
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think he's referring to 8-year lifetime of the battery pack. Current car economics (used market, resale value, TCO) don't work as well when a few years down the road the car turns into a brick.
Neither the car nor the battery turn into a brick. That's why utilities will offer plenty of money for used batteries once the range is too low for your comfort. Selling batteries to utilities helps to offset the cost of replacement batteries. 70% range on a Leaf or a Tesla battery after eight or ten years is still very valuable for offpeak energy storage applications.
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think he's referring to 8-year lifetime of the battery pack. Current car economics (used market, resale value, TCO) don't work as well when a few years down the road the car turns into a brick.
Naah, all electric car batteries are replaceable in the sense you are talking about. "Swappable" means you can change them out in a short period of time (10 minutes or less) in lieu of recharging. Completely different concept.
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think he's referring to 8-year lifetime of the battery pack. Current car economics (used market, resale value, TCO) don't work as well when a few years down the road the car turns into a brick.
Neither the car nor the battery turn into a brick. That's why utilities will offer plenty of money for used batteries once the range is too low for your comfort. Selling batteries to utilities helps to offset the cost of replacement batteries. 70% range on a Leaf or a Tesla battery after eight or ten years is still very valuable for offpeak energy storage applications.
To me this idea that utility companies step up is like the age old promise, the check is in the mail. Until a full life cycle plan is shown and incorporated as part of each sale its simply a sales gimmick.
Plus we haven't hit the tip of the iceberg when it comes to new regulations governing these cars. They are new and they are very PC now but laws will come along to deal with them, the first being, how do you tax them since they won't be caught at the pump? Politicians won't let that go easily. Plus we haven't seen how response crews will handle these cars in accidents. Testing is one thing but people tend to wreck cars very differently from how tests are performed.
There is also the incredible cascade effect of electric only cars. (disclosure I work for a major parts distributor) The majority of what automotive stores sell and repair shops fix simply don't exist in these cars. How many years before battery technology pushes more than your corner fuel store out? Jay Leno on his Jay Leno's Garage series recently remarked on how little his nearly hundred year old electric car needs. This will be true for the current and new generations.
Still back to your point, until I see it regulated or guaranteed in contract I don't subscribe to the idea the utilities will step up. There will vastly easier solutions for them, like taking up all those batteries that end up in government vehicles from fleets of buses to cars.
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm a big Tesla fan, but I disagree. The only way electric cars can possibly make sense is if the batteries are swappable. The electric cars being built now are evolutionary dead ends, IMHO.
The battery on Model S IS swappable, in fact quick-swappable, at least per Reuters ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/18/idUS24518959652011... )
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm a big Tesla fan, but I disagree. The only way electric cars can possibly make sense is if the batteries are swappable. The electric cars being built now are evolutionary dead ends, IMHO.
As an electric car owner, I haven't found a need for swapping batteries. Consider this: if a refueling station offered battery swapping they would also need to exhaustively test your batteries to determine that they were not abused and to determine how much credit to offer for their current capacity. How does that save much time from just using a quick-charge station? Today, I have plenty of range to get to and from…
Because the batteries wouldn't have to be tested while you wait. Like laptop batteries, they could have their own embedded controllers that would keep track of each individual unit's charge state and condition. (Actually it's almost certain that they already do.)
The analogy I like to use is swapping out propane cylinders for a gas grill. It should take less time to refuel an EV than a gasoline-powered vehicle, not more.
This is also important for power management, if Musk's prediction comes true and half of all cars sold by 2025 are indeed electric. Swappable batteries can be charged when/where the power is available, using industrial rates and infrastructure. Instead of seeing gasoline tankers driving around, you would see trucks delivering and picking up batteries from service stations.
People will understand why hardwired batteries are a bad idea as soon as half their neighborhood tries to charge their EVs every night the way we currently charge our smartphones.
Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S
#60Is that why TSLA stock is up today?