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New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

cnn.com

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Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#51

Post by ynac »

fbelzile wrote: post #23
mullingitover wrote: post #11

I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something that bolsters support for the US regime’s actions. They desperately need domestic political support for this war and right now even the hardcore MAGA people are against it.

Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past. I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

Agreed with others here...and updating intel for primary targets is customary. Which obviously didn't happen here. The targeting cycle and the F2T2 cycle, dynamic targeting loops (probably) should have brought the latest intel about the school to light.

As for whether it was AI - the US DOD Ethic's first tenent is Responsible - personnel remain responsible...

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#52

Post by azinman2 »

mandeepj wrote: post #30
OutOfHere wrote: post #4

What is not clear is how the US received such faulty intelligence. It is also strange how such a blunder happened on day 1. Did some followed Iranian targets go hide in the school? If so, did Iran have a hand in engineering misleading intel for the US, or was it solely the US' doing? Today a boy's school in Iran was affected by an explosion. The intelligence received by the US chronically seems troubled.

I’m afraid Israel will not hesitate from turning Iran into rubble just like what they did in Palestine. Israel definitely has a lot of moles in Iran. They weren’t bothered to confirm whether the target is a school. US earlier tried to turn it on Iran’s failed defense launch.

Israel doesn't want/need Iran's land. It wants the regime toppled, and the country split apart 10 ways so the next regime is smaller and more checked.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#53

Post by jiggawatts »

lawn wrote: post #40
jiggawatts wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many similar incidents occurred in Ukraine, where Russia targeted apartment blocks that were built on the former site of some sort of military building that was demolished decades ago. The ultimate hubris is launching a multi million dollar missile to kill civilians because you couldn’t be bothered to check Google street view (or whatever).

Russia actively targets hospitals, fire departments and schools for years and you attribute it to "outdated info". Shame on you.

It was quite obviously outdated info.

What people don’t seem to understand is the word “targeted”.

They see some obviously civilian target in ruins with screaming parents outside and they have an instant visceral emotional reaction: “What kind of monster would do something like this on purpose!?”

Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect.

The problem is that the victims and journalists have “boots on the ground”. They’re right there and can clearly see the civilian nature of the target with their own eyes.

The person doing the targeting from som bunker thousands of miles away can see only blurry rectangles on an outdated map, has sparse intelligence reports, and targets coordinates. They’re not walking up to the missile like it’s some sort of intelligent war animal and whispering “kill civilians!” in its ear.

Similarly, they’re not on the ground standing outside the civilian target waving the missile in with light sticks like some airport tarmac staff.

I repeat: they’re thousands of miles away and have to target hundreds of buildings that all look the same-ish from space and aren’t magically labelled by God as “no longer valid under the Geneva conventions” or whatever.

I’m not saying that this makes war good or in any way ethical, but you can see how a mistake is made that doesn’t require cartoonish evil people to explain.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#54

Post by mmooss »

killjoywashere wrote: post #18
mothballed wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read secondhand that it was used for military purposes during the Obama years and it appears no one tagged it as now being used as a school for the past 10 years. No idea if it's correct, but it's plausible they were operating off of extremely stale intelligence.

that sounds plausible. For people not tracking, the concept of intelligence at play is "object based development". One analyst drops a label, brief synopsis, whatever, and it just sits there for the next person who comes along. The world view gets more accurate over time, but there's a recency error that's hard to measure until the probability function collapses with a measurement.

> The world view gets more accurate over time

Is that true? I can imagine it's true at first, going from zero bits of information to 1, etc. But information rots over time, and eventually a collection of old information may rot faster than new information improves the world view.

Also, the overall world view isn't especially important, at least not in this case. Each element's accuracy is what's important.

Hopefully each tag is accompanied by a date, at least.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#55

Post by crazygringo »

zocoi wrote: post #8

Is it the lack of intensive AI analysis? AI can review satellite images over time and suggest if the building is civilian or not. School activities are very obvious

That is actually a point that rarely gets brought up -- we're so concerned about the dangers of AI in warfare, we don't necessarily stop to think of where they may be able to do a better job at avoiding lethal errors.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#56

Post by xyzelement »

mandeepj wrote: post #30
OutOfHere wrote: post #4

What is not clear is how the US received such faulty intelligence. It is also strange how such a blunder happened on day 1. Did some followed Iranian targets go hide in the school? If so, did Iran have a hand in engineering misleading intel for the US, or was it solely the US' doing? Today a boy's school in Iran was affected by an explosion. The intelligence received by the US chronically seems troubled.

I’m afraid Israel will not hesitate from turning Iran into rubble just like what they did in Palestine. Israel definitely has a lot of moles in Iran. They weren’t bothered to confirm whether the target is a school. US earlier tried to turn it on Iran’s failed defense launch.

CNN: "suggests that the United States military was responsible"

US Military: investigating whether it's responsible.

"Mandeep": rants about Israel.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#57

Post by [deleted] »

fbelzile wrote: post #23
mullingitover wrote: post #11

I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something that bolsters support for the US regime’s actions. They desperately need domestic political support for this war and right now even the hardcore MAGA people are against it.

Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past. I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

[deleted]

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#58

Post by zardo »

BigTTYGothGF wrote: post #24
mothballed wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read secondhand that it was used for military purposes during the Obama years and it appears no one tagged it as now being used as a school for the past 10 years. No idea if it's correct, but it's plausible they were operating off of extremely stale intelligence.

Sounds like (war) criminal negligence.

Yeah, it being an honest mistake moves this down from a crime you should hang for to, also still a crime you should hang for.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#59

Post by lukan »

fbelzile wrote: post #23
mullingitover wrote: post #11

I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something that bolsters support for the US regime’s actions. They desperately need domestic political support for this war and right now even the hardcore MAGA people are against it.

Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past. I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

Here is a bit more info:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab...

"It can be said with a degree of confidence that, in 2013, the site was used exclusively as a military barracks with a strict security character, as there was no indication of an independent civilian use of any part of the complex.

But this changed radically in 2016. Satellite images dated September 6, 2016 capture the main turning point, when new internal walls were created and built, fully and tightly separating the school building area from the rest of the military block."

If they work with intelligence data older than 10 years, then this would still account to gross negligence, possibly counting as a war crime. But misstakes happen and they did used AI for target tracking.

But the other interpretation is more dark. Because it was not just some school, but a school where the children of the IRGC go, the elite of the system. And Trump said he does not want a regime change, but rather someone from the current system who just bows to US demands. So the threat of killing all the leadership, anyone could be next - but also the threat to kill also their children and familiy until they surrender.

To quote Hegseth:

"no stupid rules of engagement,” “no politically correct wars,” and “no nation-building quagmire.”

Threatening to kill also their families makes sense with this kind of language and logic. At some point you will find someone who values the life of his family higher than that of the nation and religion.

But I do hope my theory is wrong.

Re: New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

#60

Post by nkurz »

myko wrote: post #22
mechanicalpulse wrote: post #19

[flagged]

> CNN skews heavily to the left. Not for at least a decade, CNN is run by extremely hard right folks today

The AllSides evaluation for CNN is interesting: https://www.allsides.com/news-source/cnn-media-bias.

They have CNN currently rated as "Lean Left", changed from "Left" a few years ago due to the changes you point out. You'll need to read the fine text to see their reasoning. While there were some votes that they are now biased to Right, this was a minority position.

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