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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

anthropic.com

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#51

Post by sdf2df »

bandrami wrote: post #42

I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.

I will personally say right now... its not gonna change lol.

People who actually know how to think can see it a mile away.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#52

Post by nozzlegear »

vkou wrote: post #33
johnfn wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems unlikely. My company is in competition with a number of other startups. If AI removes one of my co-workers, our competitors will keep the co-worker and out-compete us.

> This seems unlikely. It is absolutely likely. The hiring market for juniors is fucked atm.

It was fucked before AI became "mainstream" too. Companies overhired during and after covid.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#53

Post by sdf2df »

thewebguyd wrote: post #50
bandrami wrote: post #42

I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.

Same here, more or less, in the ops world. Yeah, I use AI but I can't honestly say it's massively improved my productivity or drastically changed my job in any way other than the emails I get from the other managers at my work are now clearly written by AI. I can turn out some scripts a little bit quicker, or find an answer to something a little quicker than googling, but I'm still waiting on others most of the time,…

Youre not missing anything.

Humans are funny. But most cant seem to understand that the tool is a mirage and they are putting false expectations on it. E.g. management of firms cutting back on hiring under the expectation that LLMs will do magic - with many cheering 'this is the worst itll be bro!!".

I just hope more people realise before Anthropic and OAI can IPO. I would wager they are in the process of cleaning up their financials for it.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#54

Post by ipaddr »

causal wrote: post #43
tl2do wrote: post #20

From my experience as a software engineer, doubling my productivity hasn’t reduced my workload. My output per hour has gone up, but expectations and requirements have gone up just as fast. Software development is effectively endless work, and AI has mostly compressed timelines rather than reduced total demand.

This - I can't think of any place I've ever worked where development ever outpaced backlog and tech debt.

When you work long enough you'll find it. Places where changing software is risky you can end up waiting for approvals. Places where another company purchased yours or you are getting shutdown soon and there is no new work. Sometimes you end up on a system that they want to replace but they never get around to it.

Being overworked is sometimes better than being underworked. Sometimes the reserve is better. They both have challenges.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#55

Post by darth_avocado »

johnfn wrote: post #30
liuliu wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not going to reduce your workload. It is going to remove one of your co-workers.

This seems unlikely. My company is in competition with a number of other startups. If AI removes one of my co-workers, our competitors will keep the co-worker and out-compete us.

> This seems unlikely

This is already happening. Fewer people are getting hired. Companies are quietly (sometimes not, like Block) letting people go. At a personal level all the leaders in my company are sounding the “catch up or you’ll be left behind” alarm. People are going to be let go at an accelerated pace in the future (1-3 years).

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#56

Post by darth_avocado »

api wrote: post #39
tl2do wrote: post #20

From my experience as a software engineer, doubling my productivity hasn’t reduced my workload. My output per hour has gone up, but expectations and requirements have gone up just as fast. Software development is effectively endless work, and AI has mostly compressed timelines rather than reduced total demand.

That’s the economy in general. Labor saving innovations increase productivity but do not usually reduce work very much, though they can shift it around pretty dramatically. There are game theoretic reasons for this, as well as phenomena like the hedonic treadmill.

Ideal state for every company is to have minimum input costs with maximum output costs. Labor always gets cut out of the loop because it’s one of the most expensive input costs.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#57

Post by nitwit005 »

The problem with using unemployment as a metric is hiring is driving by perception. You're making an educated guess as to how many people you need in the future.

Anthropic can cause layoffs through pure marketing. People were crediting an Anthropic statement in causing a drop in IBM's stock value, which may genuinely lead to layoffs: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-stock-plunges-ai-threat-1...

We'll probably have to wait for the hype to wear off to get a better idea, but that might take a long while.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#58

Post by [deleted] »

thewebguyd wrote: post #50
bandrami wrote: post #42

I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.

Same here, more or less, in the ops world. Yeah, I use AI but I can't honestly say it's massively improved my productivity or drastically changed my job in any way other than the emails I get from the other managers at my work are now clearly written by AI. I can turn out some scripts a little bit quicker, or find an answer to something a little quicker than googling, but I'm still waiting on others most of the time,…

[deleted]

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#59

Post by byproxy »

tl2do wrote: post #20

From my experience as a software engineer, doubling my productivity hasn’t reduced my workload. My output per hour has gone up, but expectations and requirements have gone up just as fast. Software development is effectively endless work, and AI has mostly compressed timelines rather than reduced total demand.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
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