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Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

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Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#51
post #18

Hurricanes would not be a problem if you Americans really understood fairytale about three pigs and bad wolf and start to build your houses from bricks instead of paper. Then you would need to just ensure that you have full fridge of food and a lot of books to read, no need to evacuate.

Funny, the opposite lesson is sometimes true: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Royal

In fact, there aren't a lot of paper homes in the United States (There are none.) Most Americans prefer brick homes but they're relatively expensive and don't really protect you from the worst of hurricanes. They also don't protect your power supply so that fridge full of food better not be perishable.

Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#52
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nature wins until we manage to get better models and find ways to leverage so that we won't even have to deliver an enormous amount of energy but just the right amount at the right moment in the right place. We created dams, removed marshes, harnassed hydraulic power, etc - feats unbelievable hundreds of years before. And before us, Romans did also uncredible feats - such as the aqueducts. We keep on improving. Natur…

And dams burst, reclaimed marshes flood, aqueducts collapse. We can carve out a tenuous effect but it'll only last as long as we expend energy to maintain it. > If we haven't bothered to fix something yet, maybe it's because the problem is not so important. This is rather callous. The catastrophic tsunami in Japan was a problem of some importance, yet with all our art we could barely predict its arrival, much less af…

"dams burst (...) it'll only last as long as we expend energy to maintain it" - true

But as our construction techniques improve, maintainance cost are reduced (or alternatively reconstruction costs are reduced - it's all a tradeoff)

Also, look at what happened as a consequence of the tsunamis - we are getting better at monitoring them.

We will also certainly get a better understanding on how they behave, and maybe how to mitigate them (IIRC wavefronts of opposing frequency cancel out- maybe someday we'll be able to do something like that)

It all takes time- if only to develop understanding on what to do, what to avoid, and technology on how to actually do something.

I'm not denying the fact that we are not able to fix the weather - yet. But in the long run, we will.

It certainly is premature to put much faith in that, yet look at the ideas for geoengineering- it's very inspiring.

I don't want to be overtly optimistic - humans are great - but we also have flaws, mostly social. There are indeed very concerning in the short run - especially in the west and in Europe, where something is going wrong (less interest in science, less willpower, lesser will to live?). But the world is a big place, and if the current powerhouses stop innovating, someone else will take the lead. It doesn't really matters who does.

So in the long run, I'm sure the human race will win against nature (as in total win - incluing whole brain emulation), if we just manage to not destroy ourselves due to existential risks in the process.

These are IMHO the only real obstacles to acheiving that.

Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#53
post #47
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nature wins until we manage to get better models and find ways to leverage so that we won't even have to deliver an enormous amount of energy but just the right amount at the right moment in the right place. We created dams, removed marshes, harnassed hydraulic power, etc - feats unbelievable hundreds of years before. And before us, Romans did also uncredible feats - such as the aqueducts. We keep on improving. Natur…

If we ever get to the point where the dominant culture truly wins over nature, we're looking a mass extinction event that will make the dinosaur extinction of the late Cretaceous seem like -- well, a fart in a hurricane.

if we do win over nature, why?

Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#54
post #18

Hurricanes would not be a problem if you Americans really understood fairytale about three pigs and bad wolf and start to build your houses from bricks instead of paper. Then you would need to just ensure that you have full fridge of food and a lot of books to read, no need to evacuate.

I've heard this sort of sentiment come from Europeans before. Apparently it's part of the "stupid americans" myth in Europe that American construction is "shoddy" and that's why weather is so destructive here.

Of course Europe receives very few hurricanes because they typically move from east to west from the intertropical convergence zones and Europe has no east coast exposed to an ITCZ. Some parts of Europe (such as Britain) receive many tornado strikes but ones with the intensity of those in America are rare. The USA is the only country that receives several F5 strikes per year, and the British tornado scale starts classification of cyclones at much lower wind speed, were we'd just describe it as an 'F0' or not even classify it as a tornado.

An F2 on our scale (T4 on theirs) struck Birmingham in 2006 and caused forty million pounds of damage to many brick buildings: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_Tornado_%28UK%29

Brick is actually a poor material to use against high wind loads because has little tensile strength. When high loads are applied to a brick wall, the two ends of it are supported by the adjoining walls, which cause bending stress on the wall, and tension on the interior of the wall between supports. The wall then buckles inward.

The only truly suitable building materials are ones with high tensile strength: steel, reinforced concrete, and core-reinforced cinderblock. Practically speaking, the odds of any one building in the midwest getting hit by a tornado are very small and so people understandably don't want to live in a concrete bunker on the very slim chance that they get hit. Florida, however, does seem to have a great deal of concrete and masonry construction, even in homes. Although it's worth keeping in mind that the majority of the damage from a hurricane comes from flooding rather than wind.

Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#55
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And dams burst, reclaimed marshes flood, aqueducts collapse. We can carve out a tenuous effect but it'll only last as long as we expend energy to maintain it. > If we haven't bothered to fix something yet, maybe it's because the problem is not so important. This is rather callous. The catastrophic tsunami in Japan was a problem of some importance, yet with all our art we could barely predict its arrival, much less af…

"dams burst (...) it'll only last as long as we expend energy to maintain it" - true But as our construction techniques improve, maintainance cost are reduced (or alternatively reconstruction costs are reduced - it's all a tradeoff) Also, look at what happened as a consequence of the tsunamis - we are getting better at monitoring them. We will also certainly get a better understanding on how they behave, and maybe ho…

Just to make this all portentous, you're basically saying that we can only win against nature when we've won against ourselves? There's a religion in there somewhere :)

One might argue that there's defeat inherent in the idea of conflict with nature. We are a part of it, after all. Perhaps cooperation and understanding are the real path? We don't bomb the tsunami into oblivion, but learn to watch for it and get out of the way when it comes. There are many examples of this philosophy of 'going with the grain': buildings which use ground-source heat pumps, unforced convection and solar panels for HVAC & hot water; kite-driven cargo ships, and so on. The tree that yields survives the storm.

I'm sorry to say that I don't find geoengineering inspiring at all. I find it terrifying. We do not understand the mechanisms at work in global climate at all, yet we're presuming to try and pull the levers to create an outcome years hence. Have these people never heard about chaos, about sensitivity to initial starting conditions? It's exceptionally dangerous.

Most of us look down on 'cargo cult' programmers, people who copy and paste stuff from the web into an editor with no idea how it works, bashing away until it compiles. That's what geoengineering is. To extend the metaphor, we don't have the first clue about the world's API, even what language it's written in, whether it's functional, object oriented or what have you[1]. We're trying to change the value of a few public ivars in the hope that something will happen.

The consequences though! It's not just a compile error: we have some greedy, pig-headed salesman dumping kilotonnes of heavy metal into a rich ocean ecosystem so he can sell some phantom bits of paper to industrial polluters.

I'm coming across like some Sierra Club hardliner here. It's not right, because I'm not, I'm a proper capitalist and I love a supercharged V8 more than I like cigars and steak. I really do hate arrogance though, and I'm a big fan of the precautionary principle.

[1](Everyone knows it's actually in Lisp.)

Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#56

Human ingenuity is quite good at delivering enormous amounts of energy over a very short time. Nature deploys merely huge energies, but does so for very long periods. She wins, every single time.

You seem to be forgetting about the billion or so human-made combustion engines, that are easily capable of altering the global climate in a few years.

Or about the tens of thousands of nukes, that can strip the poles of ice caps if properly deployed and again completely change the climate.

Or the probably achievable proposed projects of building solar mirrors or seeding the south oceans with iron.

One can look at the amount of energy humankind was commanding 300 years ago and now, and than extrapolate that to the next 300 years. That power would be enough to move stars around, not talking about a single planet surface fluctuations in gas pressure.

Re: Can You Stop a Hurricane by Nuking It?

#57
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"dams burst (...) it'll only last as long as we expend energy to maintain it" - true But as our construction techniques improve, maintainance cost are reduced (or alternatively reconstruction costs are reduced - it's all a tradeoff) Also, look at what happened as a consequence of the tsunamis - we are getting better at monitoring them. We will also certainly get a better understanding on how they behave, and maybe ho…

Just to make this all portentous, you're basically saying that we can only win against nature when we've won against ourselves? There's a religion in there somewhere :) One might argue that there's defeat inherent in the idea of conflict with nature. We are a part of it, after all. Perhaps cooperation and understanding are the real path? We don't bomb the tsunami into oblivion, but learn to watch for it and get out o…

I really do not agree with what you say afterwards, but you introduce it in a really beautiful way - "we can only win against nature when we've won against ourselves" is a great question.

I do not have an answer, just a gut feeling that both can be done at the same time.

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