Earlier quoted context omitted.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Shouldn't it be if you suspect they are executed by an insider?
You can't be sure that they are an insider or lucky, just from onchain data.
Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
51–60 of 176 posts
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
Polymarket's legality has not yet been tested in many places, although I don't personally object to it being legal, there's a chance it might not be. Also, I'd advise against betting on the Jesus market. You can't actually read the price as a probability here due to time value of money, opportunity cost, etc. So you'd lose money (or at best, gain nothing) by betting against it. It's priced correctly.
> Also, I'd advise against betting on the Jesus market. You can't actually read the price as a probability here due to time value of money, opportunity cost, etc. So you'd lose money (or at best, gain nothing) by betting against it. It's priced correctly. Yeah, and assuming Jesus doesn't come back that's only about a 3.6% return rate, which is what Treasury Bills are getting right now [1]. At that point I might as we…
Exactly, the existence of alternatives is mostly what keeps the price non-zero. I think counterparties who are actually betting on Jesus returning will be quite rare. So I wouldn't feel bad about taking money from saps, more about just getting a bad rate of return for yourself.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#53[deleted]
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#54It baffles me that Polymarket is legal. Even if there wasn't any kind of insider betting going on, it just seems so disgusting to turn literally everything into a casino. There's a bet going on right now about Jesus coming back before 2027 [1], and a part of me wants to do it because I'm pretty confident Jesus isn't coming back by the end of the year (or any year), but it seems kind of wrong to try and extract money…
The returns on [1] seem to be worse than CDs, and with no government insurance, so it's not worth it at the current payout. But if a religious event spikes the odds, it'll be worth taking the other side of this bet.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
yes, they allow you to pay people who have information about the future for that information, in a distributed manner. this is great if, like many people, you want information about the future.
That sounds cool and fancy in theory, but how do you find that information among the noise? like if 50 ppl vote A, 45 people vote B and 1 person who actually knows their shit votes B? How do you find it? By amount?
Because the people who are consistently right will consistently win money and will make bigger bets which move the price more, in the limit case making the price converge on the true probability of the outcome.
This is the theoretical underpinning of prediction markets.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#56It baffles me that Polymarket is legal. Even if there wasn't any kind of insider betting going on, it just seems so disgusting to turn literally everything into a casino. There's a bet going on right now about Jesus coming back before 2027 [1], and a part of me wants to do it because I'm pretty confident Jesus isn't coming back by the end of the year (or any year), but it seems kind of wrong to try and extract money…
The returns on [1] seem to be worse than CDs, and with no government insurance, so it's not worth it at the current payout. But if a religious event spikes the odds, it'll be worth taking the other side of this bet.
Yeah, maybe I could fabricate a Nostradamus quote that implies that removing tariffs will spark an apocalypse or something.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Also, I'd advise against betting on the Jesus market. You can't actually read the price as a probability here due to time value of money, opportunity cost, etc. So you'd lose money (or at best, gain nothing) by betting against it. It's priced correctly. Yeah, and assuming Jesus doesn't come back that's only about a 3.6% return rate, which is what Treasury Bills are getting right now [1]. At that point I might as we…
Exactly, the existence of alternatives is mostly what keeps the price non-zero. I think counterparties who are actually betting on Jesus returning will be quite rare. So I wouldn't feel bad about taking money from saps, more about just getting a bad rate of return for yourself.
Yeah, maybe a bad example on my end.
Still, I just find the idea of turning everything in politics into a casino kind of gross. Taken to the extreme it can get pretty disgusting.
Like, imagine that there were a Polymarket of "Will COVID deaths break 1 million?" or "Will Take His Fifth Victim?".
These are hyperbolic examples and I'm not saying that anything on Polymarket is that bad, but even the stuff that's currently on there right now like "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?" [1] or "Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?" [2] seems kind of crass. These are real issues that have real consequences that affect many real humans (who are no less valuable than me) and people are treating this shit like a fucking game.
I'm not accusing you of that, to be clear, it's just why I find Polymarket to be gross and I'm not sure it should be legal.
[1] https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-...
[2] https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-february...
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#58there is some inevitable "insider trading" in commodities markets. for example if you're a giant agricultural company, and you want to hedge the price of soybeans, you have some extremely relevant insider information about the soybean market. but you're still allowed to trade soybean futures. very different than securities. if prediction market contracts really are regulated as commodities, then presumably a lot of i…
An agricultural company hedging the price of soybeans is precisely hedging, not speculation. The insider information they have is their supply/demand/pricing picture. That's different than the colloquial definition of insider information which I've always taken to tie to event occurrence (or not).
Why not both? They also have insider information and aren't required to limit their trades to those which would hedge the crops.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#59> Clearly, these insiders have figured out a way to cash in on information. Whether that's kosher is out-of-scope here To the extent that the value of prediction markets is in their power to predict, insider trading is kosher. Wholesome even.
It's not that it's cheating _in the market_, but if people have an obligation to their employers, etc, to keep information confidential, then they are stealing from their employer by cashing in on it, as sure as if they had taken money from the till.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly, the existence of alternatives is mostly what keeps the price non-zero. I think counterparties who are actually betting on Jesus returning will be quite rare. So I wouldn't feel bad about taking money from saps, more about just getting a bad rate of return for yourself.
Yeah, maybe a bad example on my end. Still, I just find the idea of turning everything in politics into a casino kind of gross. Taken to the extreme it can get pretty disgusting. Like, imagine that there were a Polymarket of "Will COVID deaths break 1 million?" or "Will Take His Fifth Victim?". These are hyperbolic examples and I'm not saying that anything on Polymarket is that bad, but even the stuff that's currentl…
The market already bets on war and death, and has done for probably centuries, only it's mostly institutional players. Seems to me Polymarket just democratizes that, both for bettors and potentially consumers of the probabilities.
I would say the average person is terrible at aggregating media and making predictions, at least this way they can access expert opinion for free.
Of course as yet it's still niche nerd stuff but if I were in Iran, I'd probably find a signal about imminent strikes or future regime change quite useful.