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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#51

Post by shevy-java »

So several sources report this. I assume this may be more "realistic" than in the last 3 years ago or so.

My problem with this is that many of these "news media" have a certain propaganda spin. Yes, Russia's propaganda puts any other propaganda to shame, but that does not mean others don't use propaganda either. The most prevalent change is how suddenly in Europe, more debt will be made by upgrading arms. I am not saying this is not understandable, so I am not necessarily against that; in fact, Europeans need a nuclear arsenal under EU control anyway. But at the same time one should not blindly adopt propaganda used by others. One always has to look what happens to taxpayer's money or who finances something.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#52

Post by wiseowise »

nosianu wrote: post #33
mdavid626 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you say, that current debt levels are good?

I'm not sure why you ask me what I say. I left it as a written comment for you to peruse at any time and as many times as you want to see what I'm saying.

Don’t bother responding, it’s one of the Russian trolls:

- nuclear threat rhetoric

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47051983

- news are propaganda

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47052056

- Unsustainable debt

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47051964

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#53

Post by wuschel »

jackschultz wrote: post #2

https://archive.ph/uygcK Edit for the good metaphors. > It has entered what mountaineers call the death zone: the altitude above 8,000 metres at which the human body consumes itself faster than it can be repaired. > Over the past four years the Russian economy has bifurcated into two distinct metabolic systems... The body is metabolising its own muscle tissue for energy. > A recession is like fatigue: rest and you re…

I found the metaphors / analogons rather disturbing e.g. metabolism, etc. Does the human body have a Chinese assistent with an oxigen tent at 8000 metres?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#54

Post by mdavid626 »

wiseowise wrote: post #41
mdavid626 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it seems like that’s the propaganda. The free speech democratic West, instead of reporting about the objective truth, tells us half truths for their own benefit.

Western news resources aren’t controlled by government, unlike Russia. So they have incentive to post what generates clicks, not necessarily what reflects reality.

Yes, they are controlled by money.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#55

Post by shevy-java »

wuschel wrote: post #50
pavel_lishin wrote: post #43

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

I think the problem is that there is not much data presented in this article - or other articles of that kind. Systems are resilient - until they are not, and exhibit sudden factures and fast collapse. The question is not whether Russia collapses or not, but who would be making profit from such a scenario, and who is keen on keeping the current state of affairs.

Yes. A few get rich. This has always been the case - see Smedley Butler's old analysis about this.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#56

Post by pjc50 »

mdavid626 wrote: post #40
squidbeak wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you imagine Ukraine's desire for sovereignty would be exhausted before Russia's stomach for economic hardship? Do you really think the Russia public has the stamina even for the 4 more years it will take them to capture the rest of Donbas?

Russia doesn’t have any other choice, than to continue. Same applies for the West.

Russia can retreat inside its internationally recognized borders and negotiate a ceasefire at any time.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#57

Post by nradov »

ericmay wrote: post #12
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

I favor harsher sanctions against Russia but let's not be too optimistic. It doesn't take much funding to recruit a poor, desperate guy from the outer provinces, hand him a surplus rifle, and send him into a human wave attack. In a perverse sort of way, killing off those guys might actually be reducing Russian government expenses.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#58

Post by shevy-java »

ericmay wrote: post #12
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

> Sanctions can and will work against Russia.

We hear this mantra since almost 5 years. I am not saying there should not be sanctions, but at some point the strategic lies need to end.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#60

Post by konart »

mdavid626 wrote: post #42
konart wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you do not quite understand what debt is. Just like most people in our beloved Russia.

Or maybe you don’t understand what debt actually is.

Say I produce furniture.

I borrow from you. I now have debt.

I sell furniture. Now I can pay you back some part of it (up to 100%).

You (and other parties) see that I'm quite good at what I do and my products sells.

I now can borrow from you and other parties again to produce more (and possibly diversify my business).

I sell more, I open new businesses etc. I pay you and other parties back. And borrow again.

I can and will have debt (and it will grow over time) because this is what allows me and my business to grow.

I can borrow and be in debt till the day I die.

This basic concept is too foreign for people for whom "debt" is just a sum of money they borrowed from their friend and somehow now feel ashamed.

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