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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

bloomberg.com

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#51

Post by stackskipton »

whynotminot wrote: post #17
GiorgioG wrote: post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

This is often a commonly blamed reason, but I think the data at this point pretty strongly suggests that the more affluent a country is the less kids they have. You look at some of the most third world places in the world without strong economic security, yet somehow they manage to have babies at a higher rate than Western countries do.

Seems like when you give women the choice, many elect to have fewer kids than replacement level.

Hell, in many countries in Europe, they basically throw money at anyone having kids and their birthrate has plummeted which would indicate that economics is not only reason.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#53

Post by andrewla »

The article is paywalled but it seems the gist is that by restricting immigration and escalating deportation, we risk population decrease.

What I find amusing about this is that it is roughly equivalent to saying that the United States needs to conquer new territory to survive. Need to bring more people under our thumb.

This is definitely "dying empire" thinking.

Worth saying that I do not agree with this. I think in many ways our cardinal sin is that in the interest of legibility (especially for tax purposes) we've regulated our ability to employee people and to get work to an absolutely insane degree. To such a degree in fact, that much of our economy relies on having a source of "black market" labor and indentured servitude in the guise of immigration.

Where we flirt with danger is that we look at one side of this equation, the immigration side, but not the other, the labor side.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#54

Post by phainopepla2 »

ashishb wrote: post #47

New Yorker has a detailed article on this phenomenon that's a great read. It busts many common myths. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/03/03/the-population...

What are some of the myths they bust in that article? For those of us who can't see past the paywall

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#55

Post by seanmcdirmid »

nradov wrote: post #45
mmastrac wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

Despite the hype cycle around humanoid robots it's unlikely that they'll advance enough to be capable of replacing many human workers in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities within our lifetimes. Expect to see lots of really sad stories about elder abuse and neglect because as a society we simply won't have the resources to adequately care for them all.

They don’t have to. If say robotaxis become widespread, you’ve freed up some portion of the labor market to do something else. They don’t have to automate all jobs, just some.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#57

Post by coldtea »

mikert89 wrote: post #33
coldtea wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that, but also men in their 20s and 30s refusing to settle down, and wasting with gaming, entertainment, and porn (and caling women that are objectively their equal, or even much superior "mid").

i know almost zero men that dont want a girlfriend, many are trying

Many are trying to get some punani, many have given up and live in the setup I described (some openly incel-y, others expecting the girlfriend to fall from the sky), way fewer are trying to settle. At best they want to settle after 35+.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#58

Post by StefanBatory »

coldtea wrote: post #26
mikert89 wrote: post #14

[flagged]

that, but also men in their 20s and 30s refusing to settle down, and wasting with gaming, entertainment, and porn (and caling women that are objectively their equal, or even much superior "mid").

interesting how HN downvoted this one, but not previous :P

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#59

Post by bombcar »

sandworm101 wrote: post #9

Good. As the working population stagnates perhaps employers will attach some value to workers. Of course, without an underclass of immigrant labor, prices will rise and the US will have to import more food. And temporary heathcare workers can be brought in to help the aging population. It's good that America's cordial relationships with key trading partners will facilitate the free movement of goods and labor ... #1…

It's not a guarantee that we'll import more food - though that may be a good thing in the long run to help other countries - we could also switch what kinds of food we eat.

Not everything needs manual labor to harvest like strawberries, crops like corn and wheat and others are quite capable of being harvested in bulk by machinery.

Net calories per employee/farmer would be an interesting metric.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#60

Post by compounding_it »

mmastrac wrote: post #37
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need young people to pay for old people retirement (economically speaking, someone has to be working when someone else is just eating).

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

Don't know about inverting the pyramid but we may get more pyramid schemes. Like Google and Oracle doing 100 year bonds for AI.
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