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TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

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Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#51

Post by contrarian1234 »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

Right now is an AI goldrush. They can get crazy lucrative investments and lock in amazing deals. In a decade the Chinese tech will catch up and the AI boom will slow down and the Taiwanese will have to coast on what they have. They have to capitalize on this moment as much as they can b/c it's not going to last long. Things are going to get much tougher very soon

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#52

Post by virgildotcodes »

15155 wrote: post #49
avhception wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

[flagged]

If every time you’re shown an inkblot you see right wing talking points materialize in front of your eyes, it may be time to take a break from social media.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#53

Post by onetokeoverthe »

gexla wrote: post #45
yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

I would argue the chips don't even matter (important, but not as a reason for defending Taiwan.) It's a strategically important location that is a stone's throw from Japanese islands. If Japan feels the need, then nukes may be on the table. If that were to happen, S. Korea may not be far behind. And the cycle spirals.

[dead]

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#54

Post by joe_mamba »

kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

>Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity

EU leaders and VCs gave up on the electronics industry 20+ years ago and just kept offshoring it to the cheapest suppliers to lower costs and increase shareholder value.

You can validate this by looking at which sectors pay the highest EU wages and you'll see that hardware and electronics are not in the top.

And working in the electronics industry requires highly skilled knowhow and academic specialization, and you're not gonna attract people there if you don't pay them top wages if they can get more money and an easier job somewhere else like writing CRUD SW or pushing pencils in a bank.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#55

Post by roenxi »

avhception wrote: post #29
kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

That seems a bit too simple. I saw one particular graph [0] once that really stuck with me illustrating just how decisively Europe was ejected from the semiconductor market. It takes more than just inaction to achieve results like that. In many ways it could be called an impressive feat that only the Europeans could achieve. 44% of production to 9% - losing a steady 1% of the market every year, largest to smallest player. No other region is even in a position to do that badly even if they tried.

[0] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/...

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#56

Post by joe_mamba »

avhception wrote: post #29
kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

>when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony"

That's not at all how it works. You're talking as if you're buying a plug-and-play Xerox copy machine that you can just unbox and start printing copies of your work and make money.

Buying the latest EUV machines doesn't get you the latest nodes and economically viable yields.

Intel, Samsung also have the latest ASML machines that TSMC has and yet they haven't caught up to TSMC because there's a lot more to semi manufacturing that just the machine itself.

If Germany just buys an ASML machine it would be an expensive paperweight without the process know-how that engineers at TSMC have amassed over the decades in order to get the most economically competitive yields.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#57

Post by joe_mamba »

jorvi wrote: post #44
avhception wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. The problem is that unlike Airbus, which (highly inefficiently) can be made in multiple countries, you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. The most you can do is fab machines + chips + chip packaging. Netherlands already has fab machines and in packaging there isn't a high margin. That leaves chips, and you can b…

>High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself.

And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors.

When you're relying on national subsidies to build and run a factory and adjacent infrastructure in a country, you're tied to national interests and demands of those countries footing the bill for all that infrastructure.

So the likes of France and Germany aren't gonna give billions in subsidies from their taxpayers' money to semiconductor companies so that they can incorporate in Netherlands to dodge taxes and then create jobs in low-cost Poland and Romania instead of at home, even though that's already been happening to an extent in other industries over the last 20+ years.

It's the same with arms purchases now. France blocked Ukraine from using its money to buy British made weapons that are already available, since it expects that money to go back into the French economy, not to the economy of a competitor, even if the much needed weapons will arrive much later.

Yeah I know, UK isn't EU anymore, but the point still stands, as EU nations are still economically competitors to each other and they're not gonna spend their tax money to fund competing economies even in the EU block.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#59

Post by i5heu »

joe_mamba wrote: post #56
avhception wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

>when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony" That's not at all how it works. You're talking as if you're buying a plug-and-play Xerox copy machine that you can just unbox and start printing copies of your work and make money. Buying the latest EUV machines doesn't get you the latest nodes and economically viable yields. Intel, Samsung also ha…

It is so absurd to think that an investment in even the most uncompetitive fab while one has currently none is uneconomical.

Even if this fab is 3 times more expensive then other ones, the result of not having one will tank the entire economy and GDP of a nation if things go bad.

We speak here about trillions of damage while a fab costs only a few billions.

This is like a complete non brainer.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#60

Post by joe_mamba »

i5heu wrote: post #59
joe_mamba wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony" That's not at all how it works. You're talking as if you're buying a plug-and-play Xerox copy machine that you can just unbox and start printing copies of your work and make money. Buying the latest EUV machines doesn't get you the latest nodes and economically viable yields. Intel, Samsung also ha…

It is so absurd to think that an investment in even the most uncompetitive fab while one has currently none is uneconomical. Even if this fab is 3 times more expensive then other ones, the result of not having one will tank the entire economy and GDP of a nation if things go bad. We speak here about trillions of damage while a fab costs only a few billions. This is like a complete non brainer.

>while one has currently none

What are you talking about? There's a lot of fabs in Europe, just on much older nodes than Taiwan, US and Japan or even China have.

>We speak here about trillions of damage

Where did you get the trillions from?

>a fab costs only a few billions

Billions just to build, but then who's gonna foot the bill for running it, if the fab is not economically competitive to those from Taiwan and Japan, at EU domestic wages, EU environmental regulations and lacking knowhow supply chains that needs to be built up in the EU? The taxpayers again?

The German government (meaning the taxpayers) are still subsidizing energy costs to keep manufacturing from collapsing or leaving the country altogether because it's not internationally competitive anymore.

So how much more of the private sector should the taxpayers subsidize before we take a look at ourselves in the mirror that everything is FUBAR and that endless taxpayer funded subsidies(aka corporate welfare) are just disguising the endemic rot while not actually fixing the problem?

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