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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#51

Post by noncoml »

cbeach wrote: post #39
lvl155 wrote: post #23

I am so tired of people defending Tesla. I’ve wrote off Tesla long time ago but what gets me are the people defending their tech. We all can go see the products and experience them. The tech needs to be at least 100x more error free vs humans. It cannot be on par with human error rate.

We tend to defend companies that push the frontiers of self-driving cars, because the technology has the potential to save lives and make life easier and cheaper for everyone. As engineers, we understand that the technology will go from unsafe, to par-with-humans, to safer-than-humans, but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safegua…

> other approaches, which use sensors like LIDAR as a crutch for their more rudimentary software.

Do me a favor and take Musk and get on a plane with just a bunch of cameras instead of sevsors like radar, airspeed sensor, altimeter, GPS, ILS, etc.

No need for those crutches. Do autopiloting like a real man!

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#52

Post by kakacik »

cbeach wrote: post #31
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#53

Post by amelius »

SilverBirch wrote: post #2

To be honest I think the true story here is: > the fleet has traveled approximately 500,000 miles Let's say they average 10mph, and say they operate 10 hours a day, that's 5,000 car-days of travel, or to put it another way about 30 cars over 6 months. That's tiny! That's a robotaxi company that is literally smaller than a lot of taxi companies. One crash in this context is going to just completely blow out their stat…

But deep learning is also about statistics.

So if the crash statistics are insufficient, then we cannot trust the deep learning.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#54

Post by kakacik »

epolanski wrote: post #49
sammyjoe72 wrote: post #29

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company.

I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality.

I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#55

Post by thegreatpeter »

cbeach wrote: post #31
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

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I noticed the same thing. Not sure why you're being downvoted. The whole publican has turned sour recently.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#56

Post by thegreatpeter »

adriand wrote: post #42
cbeach wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples. If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in. 1: https://hsph.h…

Did you even read the article you sent? It’s all based on estimates.

It is consensus seeking derangement at best

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#57

Post by dash2 »

adriand wrote: post #42
cbeach wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples. If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in. 1: https://hsph.h…

Sure, but that is not a defence against the claim that his journalistic coverage is biased.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#58

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

thegreatpeter wrote: post #55
cbeach wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I noticed the same thing. Not sure why you're being downvoted. The whole publican has turned sour recently.

After every glazing there is a sourness.

Musk glazing from Electrek was very significant 2002-2024 at least

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#59

Post by esskay »

epolanski wrote: post #49
sammyjoe72 wrote: post #29

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

The best part of all of this is given their history, and the state of robotaxies as a whole, they will fail, and Tesla will crash. And it'll be a great day. The hype and obscene over valuation of them is utterly moronic.

Look how much longer, and more experience Waymo has and they still have multiple issues a week popping up online, and thats with running them in a very small well mapped and planned out area. Musk wants robo taxies globally, that's just not happening, not any time soon and certainly not by the 10 year limit for him to get his trillion dollar bonus from Tesla, which is the only reason he's pushing so hard to make it happen.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#60

Post by dchftcs »

viraptor wrote: post #30

> showing cumulative robotaxi miles, the fleet has traveled approximately 500,000 miles as of November 2025. Comparing stats from this many miles to just over 1 trillion miles driven collectively in the US in a similar time period is a bad idea. Any noise in Tesla's data will change the ratio a lot. You can already see it from the monthly numbers varying between 1 and 4. This is a bad comparison with not enough data.…

I think what you say would have be fair if Elon's and his fanboys' stance was "we need more data" rather than "we will be able to scale self-driving cars very quickly, very soon".
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