Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Some advice from Jeff Bezos

37signals.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 140 posts

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#51

Post by aamar »

akmiller wrote: post #27
jonny_eh wrote: post #13

And the sad thing is that society often punishes people who change their minds or "flip-flop". See politics.

I think flip-flopping in politics is often a politician changing his view in a short amount of time and not admitting to the prior held view. If a politician changes his view and publicly states that he held a very different view before but he was swayed by x, y, and z then I think nobody would accuse them of flip-flopping.

Good point, but people also need to understand the explanation, and they have to believe the change of mind is genuine and that x, y, and z are the genuine reasons (as opposed to some other contingent or craven reason) for the switch.

For example, John Kerry's "for it before I was against it" sounded to some like he was dissembling and hiding that he may have changed his opinion on an appropriations bill simply because the wars were becoming less popular with the public.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#52

Post by jlgreco »

papsosouid wrote: post #28
silverbax88 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true, except the definition is elastic in politics. A candidate who thought a certain way at 18 years old is expected to still think the same way - on all opinions - at 45, which is absolutely ludicrous.

That's a strawman though, nobody actually says that. People complain about "flip flopping" when they see a politician campaigning and he or she says one thing on tuesday, something contradictory on wednesday, and then is back to the previous position again on thursday.

Usually when I see it, it is people complaining that a candidate endorsed different viewpoints than they did during past elections (in other words, they think something different than they did years ago). Kerry and Romney both come to mind (though to be clear, both (or at least Romney) have been accused of the type you are talking about as well). Specifically I have heard some people claim that Romney has flip-flopped because they perceive a difference between his positions as a presidential candidate and as a governor.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#54

Post by espeed »

He's observed that the smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved.

I think he's spot on, and this has been the basis for my manifesto (http://jamesthornton.com/manifesto) -- I like to think of it as continually refining your perspective.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#55

Post by RivieraKid »

corin_ wrote: post #30
RivieraKid wrote: post #22

I never understood why consistent opinions are considered a good thing, it doesn't make any sense. If I realize I'm wrong, why should I stick to the wrong opinion?

The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong. Therefore a simplistic view is that the closer to that person you are, the better. Some people may even think they are that person. Realising that you are not going to be correct 100% of the time is the first step. The second step is…

People's opinions usually have probabilistic nature, i.e. "From what I know I think X is the most probable conclusion". The problem is that they know too little, because people don't have time to study everything in detail.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#56

Post by n72 »

callmeed wrote: post #8

Good advice but I'm curious about: "Jason Fried is the fastest white man you'll ever meet." Is Jason actually really fast and/or was he an athlete at a prior time?

Yeah, this jarred me as well. Vaguely racist.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#57

Post by brdrak »

I work with someone who spends way too much time (IMO) making sure that he's not wrong. Typically this involves not taking a stand until the results are in and then claiming the position all along. Or simply lying about his position. After witnessing this repeatedly I basically lost all respect for this person and really dread any interaction.

Personally I don't care if someone (including myself) is right or wrong. I often have to make technology recommendations that may turn out to be wrong years down the line and end up costing the organization time and money. So far I've been pretty lucky. I find it helpful to always include caveats in my proposals and explain reasoning behind my recommendations. Of course putting in the time to understand the issue, the market and the history is key.

I don't have a problem taking a stand and be proven wrong or adjusting my position when new information becomes available. However, I wonder if this attitude is hurting my standing with the organization compared with this other guy who never seems to be wrong.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#58

Post by jonnathanson »

RivieraKid wrote: post #22

I never understood why consistent opinions are considered a good thing, it doesn't make any sense. If I realize I'm wrong, why should I stick to the wrong opinion?

Politics often has a lot to do with it. I don't mean Politics politics, but rather, office politics and social politics. Social signaling plays a huge role in how we act, and in what types of traits we attribute to the actions of others.

In a typical Big Corporate workplace, to be seen as quickly decisive is to be seen as a strong leader. To change one's mind is to project weakness and indecisiveness. Perhaps in complete contradiction to Bezos's opinion, the prevailing opinion among most corporate managers -- even C-level execs -- is that those who can quickly arrive at a conclusion are the smartest, and are most likely to be correct. In reality, we all know where this usually leads. But there's still a prevailing opinion that jumping to conclusions, and doing anything to support them, is the ideal way to act.

Compounding this problem is a well-known and well-documented cognitive bias, present in some extent in all human beings. It's known as the "confirmation bias." Essentially, the way our brain works is to draw up a quick hypothesis about a situation, and then to look for any information that supports the hypothesis. We actually have to train our minds to look for contradictory or challenging evidence, because doing so is not hard-wired into us.

The confirmation bias happens at the subconscious level, and there's actually good evidence that it served as an adaptive, successful trait in human evolution. Back when we lived in the wild, we didn't have a lot of time to analyze threats, weather patterns, or other major situations. So being able to mentally "shorthand" a situation was a benefit. It still is in many instances, but it becomes a hurdle when we need to make longer-term, more complex decisions. In those cases, we need to bring conscious, analytical thought to the table.

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#59

Post by m_for_monkey »

callmeed wrote: post #8

Good advice but I'm curious about: "Jason Fried is the fastest white man you'll ever meet." Is Jason actually really fast and/or was he an athlete at a prior time?

Jason, I found a little bio of you that said, "Jason Fried is the fastest white man you'll ever meet. He has curly hair and a sunny disposition. He loves to travel, play hoops, and watch sunsets from his roof deck. He wishes he could break dance." Is that all true?

JF: That was an old bio that someone wrote for me. I guess it's probably all true, except for the break dancing part. I really don't have any desire to do that.

http://www.tompeters.com/printer_friendly.php?print=1&no...

Re: Some advice from Jeff Bezos

#60

Post by wissler »

RivieraKid wrote: post #22

I never understood why consistent opinions are considered a good thing, it doesn't make any sense. If I realize I'm wrong, why should I stick to the wrong opinion?

This is an ironic question: on the one hand, you say consistency doesn't make sense, on the other hand, the root meaning of "doesn't make sense" is precisely to be inconsistent.
Post reply on HN